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Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards


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I do get a sence we may start seeing the Atlantic starting to slow down as we are finally seeing some sort of amplified ridges coming out of Canada and the eastern seaboard, nothing major but hopefully it will start to buckle and slow the jet stream down somewhat and who knows, we may get those height rises at higher latitudes coming into play but that is a long way off at this moment. 

 

Next week looks quite a messy picture but the emphasis is that most days will be wet but at least the signs are any persistent rainfall won't be sticking around for long but of course in some areas, any extra rainfall is not most welcomed at all. 

 

In terms of snowfall, the potential is there some northern parts especially with some elevation but ideally a shallower low pressure is needed than what the GFS 12Z is showing so there is less mixing out of any colder uppers that we do have. Still think for most though, it be rain rather than snow falling from the skies but getting the detail right for next week looks incredibly tricky. 

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Ukmo looks very intriguing at 72 hours!!precipitation coming up from south west and uppers of -4 to -6 acroes the uk!!could once again see some frontal snowfall!!

Yes, but  unfortunately for snow lovers the  negative dewpoints are quickly replaced by positive dewpoints ahead of that rainband! Rain, not snow Im afraid, especially away from the highest of ground.Posted Image

post-6830-0-77741300-1391962687_thumb.pn

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Posted ImagePosted Image850's look good and there is moisture about.

yeh gfs has the low pressure slightly further north I think which is why there are higher dewpoints on the gfs whereas ukmo has it further south!!think its gona go down to the wire!!
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yeh gfs has the low pressure slightly further north I think which is why there are higher dewpoints on the gfs whereas ukmo has it further south!!think its gona go down to the wire!!

I don't think it really matters tbh, milder air will be filtering north a good way behind the main rain band , so rain is the only option for most of the population.Posted Image

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The JMA really is intent on sinking the Isle Of Wight and much of the Southern Coast Line of the UK. 

 

It's ditched the intense low for Tuesday and replaced it with this for Thursday instead !

 

Posted Image

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Not forgetting it is pretty wintry in a fair few places beforehand however, Purga. Posted Image Granted, no SNOWFEST and entrenched cold but at least something more seasonal, apart from the incessant rain on the other occasions.

Well yes but very fleetingly and in the usual places i.e. northern hills etc - you're probably too young to remember the hymn 'hills of the north rejoice' Posted Image

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The JMA really is intent on sinking the Isle Of Wight and much of the Southern Coast Line of the UK. 

 

It's ditched the intense low for Tuesday and replaced it with this for Thursday instead !

 

Posted Image

Hi

Sorry I don't normally post in here but as I live on the iow could you explain what you mean?

Thankyou

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Afternoon All- Probably the most exciting & at the same time possibly dangerous week of this volatile winter so far- If I was on a hill somewhere like Buxton I would be salivating over the chances of snow, This also includes large chunks of the Midlands North, Wales & Ireland as well. - Scotland often in the mix as well. If I lived on the south coast I would be seriously worried about the possibility of worst storm of the Winter which is saying something considering the action we have had- then possibly colder ( maybe very cold) towards the end of the month- For raw weather action one of the charts of the dayhttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014020912/J84-21.GIF?09-12 S

steve where you been man??what are yoyr interpretations of what the models are showing for Tuesday?any chance of some of the white stuff and a good covering?
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Afternoon All-

 

Probably the most exciting & at the same time possibly dangerous week of this volatile winter so far-

 

If I was on a hill somewhere like Buxton I would be salivating over the chances of snow, This also includes large chunks of the Midlands North, Wales & Ireland as well. - Scotland often in the mix as well.

 

If I lived on the south coast I would be seriously worried about the possibility of worst storm of the Winter which is saying something considering the action we have had-

 

then possibly colder ( maybe very cold) towards the end of the month-

 

For raw weather action one of the charts of the day

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014020912/J84-21.GIF?09-12

 

S

absolutely Steve - already started this afternoon - snow/hail/sleet/wind and thunder and lightning - and the models do look great for more wintry action this week!

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Well yes but very fleetingly and in the usual places i.e. northern hills etc - you're probably too young to remember the hymn 'hills of the north rejoice' Posted Image

 

Except of course for places such as Glasgow, one of the largest urban centres in the UK. 

 

Posted Image

 

 

Not to mention Ireland the next day:

 

Posted Image

 

 

Followed by Belfast and Glasgow a few hours later

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

For the first time this winter there is the real possibility of millions of people seeing some significant snow.

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Afternoon All-

 

Probably the most exciting & at the same time possibly dangerous week of this volatile winter so far-

 

If I was on a hill somewhere like Buxton I would be salivating over the chances of snow, This also includes large chunks of the Midlands North, Wales & Ireland as well. - Scotland often in the mix as well.

 

If I lived on the south coast I would be seriously worried about the possibility of worst storm of the Winter which is saying something considering the action we have had-

 

then possibly colder ( maybe very cold) towards the end of the month-

 

For raw weather action one of the charts of the day

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014020912/J84-21.GIF?09-12

 

S

im glad to see someone who thinks on a similar wave length to me. i stand by my thoughts noticing very cold air starting to plunge into europe if not coldest this winter so far.

still there is focus on the storm on the southcoast we are not looking forward to this.....if it happens.

 

we shall start to see some interest towards cold showing stronger trends in the models.

excited to see if we are heading for another blast end of feb start of march.

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Except of course for places such as Glasgow, one of the largest urban centres in the UK. 

 

Posted Image

 

 

Not to mention Ireland the next day:

 

Posted Image

 

 

Followed by Belfast and Glasgow a few hours later

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

For the first time this winter there is the real possibility of millions of people seeing some significant snow.

Sorry for being a vibe assassin/buzz killington here but there is more chance of me bedding Scarlett Johansson than there is of those GFS charts actually verifying.

I have lost count over the last few years of how many times I was going to get a good dumping of snow from looking at those only for it to rain.

Anywhere above 150 meters in Central Scotland could see some snow for sure.

I will stick with the metoffice on this one for the Glasgow area.

Strathclyde

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Rain, with snow chiefly on high ground, early Tuesday then becoming brighter with sunshine and wintry showers. Wednesday and Thursday bright with sunny spells and some wintry showers.

Issued at: 1600 on Sun 9 Feb 2014

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Sorry for being a vibe assassin/buzz killington here but there is more chance of me bedding Scarlett Johansson than there is of those GFS charts actually verifying. 

You never know, I've heard she will be visiting the UK soon!

 

The ECM has decently cold air at 48 hours (-6 on western areas) but then takes the track of the lows further north with milder uppers.

 

Karyo

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Hi Sorry I don't normally post in here but as I live on the iow could you explain what you mean?Thankyou

Hi - they mean really bad storms. Probably at least as bad (probably worse, actually) as anything you've already seen this winter for wind, and maybe rain too. Keep watching the forecasts for the Tuesday - Friday period this week.A caveat though - these storms are hard to pin down until 2/3 days before the event, so the strongest winds may not necessarily be over IOW, but as I said keep watching the forecasts Edited by rjbw
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