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Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards


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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    Looking through the charts this morning and GEFS and GEM ensembles it certainly can't be completely discounted. Edited by Jason M
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Following on from the 12z the 00z also shows a promising drying trend through-out England and wales from the 16th

     

    Posted Image

     

    Keep everything crossed for those in the flood hit southwest

     

    GFS ensembles also supporting something drier than of late as well from the 16th onwards, lots of scatter on the 850's later on with some colder runs starting to appear, so potentially a colder but drier end to winter

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    We could possibly be seeing some light now at the end of a very very long tunnel

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Not today for most .............

    hoping the latter part of week 2 and into week 3 brings some respite for our soggy country.

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL

    GFS 6z showing snow for many Tuesday Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Still looking very good for snow around the 84 hour mark in the GFS, quite heavy going on the chart too.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

     

    GFS ensembles also supporting something drier than of late as well from the 16th onwards

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    We could possibly be seeing some light now at the end of a very very long tunnel

     

    :)

    All I see from the ensembles is massive uncertanty! A 15c difference in temps towards the end. Still some members with active low pressure systems. Fingers crossed we get some sort of pattern change soon. Hopefully a huge scandi high, deep low over Spain and bitter east winds with heavy snow showers
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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    Only my view of course , but I think in practice widespread snow on Tuesday is very unlikely. GFS in particular overplays snow in these scenarios and come Tuesday its likely that the 850s will get toned down. For welsh mountains and Pennines though maybe the sledge might get an outing :-) , for most though it's probably cold rain or sleety mix.

    Soil temps are much higher than normal as well, so settling will be a big problem. In a perfect world we would get several harsh frosts followed by snowfall.

    I notice summer sun didn't comment on the colder runs appearing late in FI on the ensembles. Worth just noting I feel ;-). Obviously the clock keeps ticking but the last third of feb is still just about to play for.

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

    Tuesdays snow risk for the UK

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

     

    i was just about to post those charts gavin, then a thunderstorm knocked my power out as i was typing!!!

     

    bloody weather!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

    06z throws in another 955mb low for next weekend

     

    Posted Image

     

    that would be a nice change.......

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Incoming beast in end of FI, will change by next run but nice to see. With high pressure showing itself at day 12 ish this could still happen. The high pressure is key to drying the country out first.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    Tuesdays system looks interesting if we compare last night's T96 fax with the latest T84 one.

     

    post-2026-0-18211700-1391856584_thumb.gipost-2026-0-31113200-1391856595_thumb.gi

     

    latest idea slows the front crossing the Uk -could that little kink create enough of a feature to allow some undercut of cold to bring snow lower down in any heavy precipitation?

    Still a good window for more extensive snow higher up again showing on the 06Z this morning as some cold polar air is wrapped up in this low.

     

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn842.gif

     

    probably a brief and only window for anything Wintery this coming week as the colder uppers tend to get mixed out after with the next Atlantic system coming in.

    Certainly still a worrying outlook overall though for wind and rain showing little relief between the lows.

    Edited by phil nw.
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    the extended london ens seem to be heading that way tamara. i'd say a 50/50 split later week 2 between mostly dry though with some rain and mostly wet with some dry windows. hopefully we can see the more settled theme taking over. i note that madrid and rome both look fairly settled after the 13th. before that, they are even wetter than we are re forecast rainfall totals !!

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    Posted Image

     

    I must remember to note the above post as the most informative post seen on the MODEL OUTPUT DISCUSSION thread this season. Posted Image  I'd truly appreciate it and I'm quite sure so would many others, if you could kindly take your personal remarks between yourself and BA offline, instead of cluttering up this informative thread. There is an option called PM. Thank you Kindly. Posted Image

     

    As for the current forecast weather pattern, some brighter interludes in the coming working week but still unnecessarily wet and often windy for much of England and more snow for the highest peaks in Scotland. The latter risk diving South on occasions to affect the more hillier parts elsewhere. If I had to pick a drier day down South, I would suggest Monday and Wednesday as better days, but that's about all I can offer you right now.

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    All that's happened is Autumn started late,December/Jan is now the new October/Nov

    mid Feb to end March is the new winter,simples.Longer Summers just for "Summer sun".

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    All I see from the ensembles is massive uncertanty! A 15c difference in temps towards the end. Still some members with active low pressure systems. Fingers crossed we get some sort of pattern change soon. Hopefully a huge scandi high, deep low over Spain and bitter east winds with heavy snow showers

    Like the end of FI is lining up

     

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

    Maybe it'll be March the New UK Winter?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    The ens for mon the 17th have plenty of colder and drier potential ....definitely signs of change .

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Like the end of FI is lining up

     

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

    Maybe it'll be March the New UK Winter?

    See my post before yours purga.Ha ha you couldn't discount it this year could you?
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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    See my post before yours purga.Ha ha you couldn't discount it this year could you?

    Good spot '79 --- Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    06z ensembles following on from the 00z's showing things becoming less wet from the 16th lots of scatter on the 850's from the 17th so we do have potential for a cooler but drier end to what has been an exceptionally wet winter

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Colder 850s earlier on latest GFS, may help snowfall on Tue. Unfortunately won't help flood victims!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL

    GFS 12z still going with snow for some Tuesday Posted Image

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    • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-05-13 09:41:14 Valid: 13/05/2021 0600 - 14/05/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 13TH MAY 2021 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
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      Cool & showery theme to continue for the foreseeable as low pressure sticks close by

      Showers or longer spells of rain to end the week and through the weekend. Some sunny spells too, but staying on the cool side, with temperatures generally remaining below average. Staying unsettled next week too. Read the full update here

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      Weekend plans: Day trips and evenings out

      Little change by this weekend with further heavy showers. There will be some warm sunshine in between but temperatures remain in the teens with more of a breeze. Still cool for sitting out. Read more here

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