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Paul

Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

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It'll be interesting to know what the latest EC32 says tonight. If we are likely to get a last gasp cold spell then surely some signs of a possible change will show up tonight. I know it can be wrong, however lately it has been correct in forecasting the relentless train if wet and windy weather.

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so a week later than you though a few days ago?

Surprised JH, you seem to be having ago at someone's thoughts?I think people, having ago at interpretations of the models should be encouraged, whether one agrees or not. Edited by That ECM

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(My input for today from Nuneaton) apart from the wind from the baked beans we had for lunch, the wind speed on my weather station reads 5.1 , mild rain showers , temp 4.1 c and It looks as though we may have to wait until march AGAIN for the snow we have all been anxiously waiting for Posted Image

Edited by mattyrayandkay

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i can barely believe nearly two months have gone now since I met up with my nieces and nephews, GFAS, ECM, UKMO GEM and NAVGEM. What fun we had.

I wonder how they are getting on with those Spirographs I got them all for Christmas?

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I think the chances of snow on Tuesday are likely to be toned down and replaced by an increased risk of damaging gales and flooding, as the depression responsible for the chilly westerly incursion has been toned up on tonight's models (especially the ECMWF) which means more influence from a warm depression core.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20140206/12/ecmt850.120.png

Tonight's ECMWF run is probably overblowing the low somewhat (uncharacteristically so, normally it tends to be the GFS that does this) but while I had previously been watching out for stormy winds next Wednesday/Thursday, there is a chance that Tuesday could be the day of the monster low.  We have a vicious low coming our way for Saturday of course, and that is pretty near certain to happen IMHO.

 

Don't think we can rule out any of the solutions for next Tuesday on offer from the models tonight, depending on the phasing of lows over Atlantic with the very strong jet and shortwave upper troughs moving SE out of Labrador/NE Canada. If the lows phase 'favourably' by falling on the cold side of the jet in the right entrance or left exit and engaging with shortwave troughs spawned by chunks of deep cold air moving out from NE Canada then across the N Atlantic, then lows will deepen explosively over the Atlantic and even over the UK as per ECM. If the low doesn't engage so well, as with GFS, then we end up with a less deep low. Very difficult this far off for the models to predict accurately the behaviour of these lows under such volatile conditions caused by the strong jet and deep cold spilling out of Canada. Wouldn't rule out EC.

 

One common theme the UKMO, EC, GFS, JMA and GEM have, is a surge of cold air racing towards the UK on Tuesday direct from the NE of Canada on a strong westerly flow - which hasn't had too much time to modify over the Atlantic. Therefore there is potential, certainly on the rear of the cold front progged to race east across the UK below low pressure moving NE for rain to turn to snow - particularly, but maybe not exclusively, the north and west, followed by sleet and snow showers. However, the cold maybe and is often moderated by models nearer the time - so wouldn't take any charts suggesting snow too literally until much nearer the time. The potential for a low to deepen across/near the UK next Tuesday, rather than filling like yesterdays and Saturday's, is the main concern - as this would bring the risk of stronger winds than we've seen this week or will see on Saturday.

Edited by Nick F

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so a week later than you though a few days ago?

 

John. Your one-liner has summed up the whole 11 weeks of this winter's model thread... well done and take a bow. Posted Image

Edited by Iceni

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So he is not allowed to change his forecast? even the pros @ the meto  change theirs on a week to week basis??

 

of course he is, simply a statement of his change from me

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If you run through the GFS 18z charts as an animation of the PV it looks like someone trying to make a balloon animal.

Look, I made a rabbit, or is it a duck?

 

Posted Image

 

I guess a duck is more appropriate, it certainly isn't a penguin that's for sure.

This winter has finally cracked me up.Posted Image

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The 18z seems to be "buying in" to the idea of the Tuesday storm,although not to the same

scale as the ECM yet.

 

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Next Tuesday still looks to be the best chance of more country wide wintriness, still a while away but definitely some snow chances for higher ground, even down South.

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Snow definitely a possibility for many on Tuesday. Those cold uppers are surviving the trip from Canada. Dam and theta e etc all look positive too http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=120&code=0&mode=3

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=2

Edited by Tim Bland

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Pub run FI special coming up?

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

Computer says no.

 

Posted Image

 

GFS decided to throw a chunk of PV at the forming ridge, interesting end to hi res though.

 

Edit.

 

Save this chart for posterity, not because it's cold but because it is building heights into Greenland from 4 separate sources 

 

Posted Image

 

And we still can't get a Greenland high!

 

Posted Image

 

Forgive the FI shennanigans 

Edited by Mucka

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The met Office 120hr fax says it all for me tonight. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=120&carte=2000

Quite.The snow-hunters will get some joy too in places, but having just seen the latest UKMO rainfall and windfield modelling for Tuesday, it goes without saying that's where the weather headlines will rightly focus.

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If you run through the GFS 18z charts as an animation of the PV it looks like someone trying to make a balloon animal.

Look, I made a rabbit, or is it a duck?

 

Posted Image

 

I guess a duck is more appropriate, it certainly isn't a penguin that's for sure.

This winter has finally cracked me up.Posted Image

 

It's the Death Rabbit, General Woundwort from Watership Down.

Edited by Iceni

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Absolutely awful gfs start to the day if its unsettled weather you want to avoid,just spawning low after low towards us with nothing really for us coldiesPosted Image

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Ukmo is going down the same road..... Or should I say river!

Saturday,Tuesday and Friday.

Tuesday

post-19059-0-13656600-1391752501_thumb.j

post-19059-0-00714400-1391752603_thumb.j

Edited by Argyle1980

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I think forecasting anything beyhond Sunday is impossible a right dogs dinner tbh

ECM 120

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020700/ECM1-120.GIF?07-12

UKMO 120

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014020700/UW120-21.GIF?07-06

GFS 120

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020700/gfs-0-120.png?0

 

Both ecm and gfs have runners to the south of the main low(although they look more potent than the main area of low pressure) ECM has a snow event for northern England but i have no faith in any outcome anymore.

Edited by winterof79

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Posted Image

Words fail me here, southern England and Northern France would be in big trouble here.

Lets give Biscay a miss for sailing that day.Posted Image Posted Image

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