Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[Snowman.]

Latest CFS run isn't inspiring to say the least. 3 Cold spells of weather which almost rival last year.

 

 

[winterof79]

A bit of an upgrade on how  cold next weeks Westerly will be in this mornings output thus far.

 

 

Further out pretty good consistency from GFS in FI for the UK to sit under a cold slack trough/col 

 

 

Followed by an Atlantic ridge

 

 

Of course others will want to concentrate on what we know is coming, which is more rain and at least one more powerful storm before we get any possible snow interest. It certainly looks rough.

 

 

ECM cranking up the cold westerly next Wednesday also

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020600/ECU0-144.GIF?06-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020600/ECU1-144.GIF?06-12

FI  Blocking showing on GFS a cold outlier for a few runs now

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

ECM later stages could go that way too.

[winterof79]

Latest CFS run isn't inspiring to say the least. 3 Cold spells of weather which almost rival last year.

 

 

Although it is inconsistant,to say the least,the chart for Feb is fantastic and most coldies would welcome it

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014020518/run1m/cfs-0-474.png?18

Tamara would be happy.

Edited February 6, 2014 by winterof79

[Man With Beard]

ECM T120/T144 maintains the storm for next Tuesday ... Hard to tell how it affects much of the UK as it reaches the SW between the two frames, but looks like it surely must peak before reaching us, so perhaps not quite as severe as was showing yesterday. UKMO has something similar.

As for cold weather, many models have -6c uppers over central areas mid-next week, that's the best on offer.

[TEITS]

ECM T120/T144 maintains the storm for next Tuesday ... Hard to tell how it affects much of the UK as it reaches the SW between the two frames, but looks like it surely must peak before reaching us, so perhaps not quite as severe as was showing yesterday. UKMO has something similar.As for cold weather, many models have -6c uppers over central areas mid-next week, that's the best on offer.

Ireland and NW England, Scotland appear to be most at threat from the storm between +120 to +144.

 

Delighted to see a new trend towards a pattern change emerge in todays output. Shall explain more when I have woken up.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

One word sums up this mornings output again and thats unsettled.

Im watching next tues/wed as there is potential for a brief spell of colder uppers across parts of the north.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

After that though we see ECM building high pressure across Europe-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html

Some warm uppers moving into Central Europe courtesy of a intense euro high..

[gottolovethisweather]

This post has a slight bias towards my region but this is my broader view of just how I see the period up until the middle of February developing.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79339-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-weather-discussion-050214-16z/?p=2919111

 

Click on each link within each post which shows how the current situation has evolved.

 

Take care all.

Edited February 6, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Frosty.]

There is a definate colder trend on the GEFS 00z mean this morning, what it suggests to me is for temperatures to drop by a few degrees during the next week or so and for the very stormy spell with bouts of torrential rain to continue but with an increasing risk of snow on hills and perhaps to lower ground across the north of the uk. Beyond the next 7-10 days, it looks less stormy but remaining very unsettled with cyclonic and rather cold conditions which would mean a much higher chance of the snow line descending to lower ground over a wide area with more in the way of ice and overnight frosts...just how I see the latest mean.

Edited February 6, 2014 by Frosty.

[IDO]

The next lull in the PV, previous ones have promised much but delivered nothing, so caution, will start later next week. We may get another storm next Monday/Tuesday, though some GEFS still not on board. Then we have 3-4 days as the Canadian PV lobe moves from west to east north of the UK, mean at T180:

 

 

From about D9 our sector has less energy from the west and the GEFS are relatively confident of a slack flow over us, mean:

 

 With a cool upper profile in situ: 

 

At that time onwards is when amplification in the Atlantic starts, with the associated trough developing close to the UK. At this range it is clearly a mixed bag from the GEFS, with some only showing minor ridging, some temporary, one or two link to Greenland and one or two to Scandi. The spread at T300 highlights that quandry:

 

 mean: 

 

FWIW at the end of FI, the PV is reorganising and most of the promise of the ridging is flattened out. Its then 50% zonal and 40% MLB near the UK. Some of those MLB drag in some cold air as they are based SW to NE and there is one HLB chart:

 

 

GEM looks in line with some of the GEFS, at T240, with an initial Atlantic ridge toppler:  

 

ECM is the same, progressive in flattening any Atlantic ridge: 

 

Probably due to a lobe of the Canadian PV remaining at base, the flatter GEFS cluster also have this profile.

 

So more seasonal (average) weather on the agenda probably next week but still no snowy/wintry period showing up yet.

 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

The next lull in the PV, previous ones have promised much but delivered nothing, so caution, will start later next week. We may get another storm next Monday/Tuesday, though some GEFS still not on board. Then we have 3-4 days as the Canadian PV lobe moves from west to east north of the UK, mean at T180:

 

gens-21-1-180 (5).png

 

From about D9 our sector has less energy from the west and the GEFS are relatively confident of a slack flow over us, mean:

 

gens-21-1-216.png  With a cool upper profile in situ: gens-0-0-216.png

 

At that time onwards is when amplification in the Atlantic starts, with the associated trough developing close to the UK. At this range it is clearly a mixed bag from the GEFS, with some only showing minor ridging, some temporary, one or two link to Greenland and one or two to Scandi. The spread at T300 highlights that quandry:

 

gens-22-1-300.png  mean: gens-21-1-300 (3).png

 

FWIW at the end of FI, the PV is reorganising and most of the promise of the ridging is flattened out. Its then 50% zonal and 40% MLB near the UK. Some of those MLB drag in some cold air as they are based SW to NE and there is one HLB chart:

 

gensnh-16-1-384.png

 

GEM looks in line with some of the GEFS, at T240, with an initial Atlantic ridge toppler:  gemnh-0-240 (20).png

 

ECM is the same, progressive in flattening any Atlantic ridge: ECH1-240 (16).gif

 

Probably due to a lobe of the Canadian PV remaining at base, the flatter GEFS cluster also have this profile.

 

So more seasonal (average) weather on the agenda probably next week but still no snowy/wintry period showing up yet.

Pretty much agreed-very underwhelming outputs again today.No sign whatsoever of height rises where we need them(Greenland).

But,the chances periodically of pm air off the Atlantic might well offer some cheer for northern folk with altitude.

[bluearmy]

Whilst we sit in a period of slack strat flow which leaves the trop to make the running, it should be noted that within 2 weeks, zonal flow in the strat recovers to levels which will begin to restrict certain trop patterns developing. If its worth still seeking a wintry period at this juncture, we will require a suitable trop pattern to have become established within 2/3 weeks.

a relocation of the vortex to w siberia would be the kind of thing to be seeking. Somehow, i doubt the canadian master will relinquish his throne this winter.

Plenty of dire stuff to negotiate over the next week at least.

Still decent chances of snowfall over elevation and northern uk next week, moreso 10/11/12 th

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Whilst we sit in a period of slack strat flow which leaves the trop to make the running, it should be noted that within 2 weeks, zonal flow in the strat recovers to levels which will begin to restrict certain trop patterns developing. If its worth still seeking a wintry period at this juncture, we will require a suitable trop pattern to have become established within 2/3 weeks.a relocation of the vortex to w siberia would be the kind of thing to be seeking. Somehow, i doubt the canadian master will relinquish his throne this winter.Plenty of dire stuff to negotiate over the next week at least.Still decent chances of snowfall over elevation and northern uk next week, moreso 10/11/12 th

Yep,must admit to being suprised by teits optmisitc sounding post BA-There looks precious little to be optimistic about for cold lovers from where im sat this morning.

[weather eater]

The GFS once again hints at a pattern change in FI, a small straw to clutch at but I’ll believe it when I see it. Meanwhile the rain continues unrelentingly and both the ECM and the UKMO are showing the potential for another nasty feature for Tue into Wed, hope Amazon deliver by boat in time.  

But here is a small bit of cheer at least somebody like the rain.

http://metro.co.uk/2014/02/05/kayden-and-rain-video-of-little-girls-first-experience-of-a-downpour-4291650/

[Troubleatmill]

Pretty much agreed-very underwhelming outputs again today.No sign whatsoever of height rises where we need them(Greenland).

But,the chances periodically of pm air off the Atlantic might well offer some cheer for northern folk with altitude.

 

Dont get that tbh Cecil? no sign whatsoever?  Sure we have to get through a lot of unsettled weather first remainder of this week and most of next (still chance of snow to lower levels next week too), And then GFS shows this kind of set up? 

Edited February 6, 2014 by Nicholas B

[Frosty.]

Pretty much agreed-very underwhelming outputs again today.

Underwhelming? Those suffering the effects of storms and floods are overwhelmed and with the generally stormy pattern set to continue for at least the next 7-10 days, it looks like becoming even worse. It also looks a rather colder outlook with a higher chance of wet snow and overnight ice/frost.

[TEITS]

Pretty clear to me that from mid Feb onwards (especially 3rd week of Feb) we shall see an end to this stormy pattern with pressure rising. You can see this clearly on the SLP mean for the UK and other places like Iceland.

 

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140206/00/prmslReyjavic.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140206/00/prmslCambridgeshire.png

 

So next week we have the potential for snowfall to occur in some locations followed by more settled weather and probably colder weather the week after. Personally I still fancy a decent cold spell to develop during this period.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Underwhelming? Those suffering the effects of storms and floods are overwhelmed and with the generally stormy pattern set to continue for at least the next 7-10 days, it looks like becoming even worse. It also looks a rather colder outlook with a higher chance of wet snow and overnight ice/frost.

Yes karl,underwhelming from a cold perspective.

There is a thread for the storms flooding etc i was commenting on the ongoing Atlantic dominated 0z charts.

[snowking]

The track of the aforementioned Tuesday storm on the ECMWF det.:

 

 

Northern and Western areas of the UK getting it bad enough but on that track it would be the Irish Republic that would see the absolute worst of the winds - current projections suggest 90kt max. gusts off the South-West coast of Ireland (104mph). Still strong enough for the UK though with max. gusts of 70kt (~80mph) around Irish Sea coasts from that.

 

The slightly better news from overnight (though I would emphasise the word slightly) is the slight downgrading of peak gusts for Saturday from deterministic modelling, with the suggestions from yesterday of 80kt gusts down the Bristol Channel now reduced to around 65kt - still severe enough but hopefully a decent trend for the poor folk in the South-West.

 

SK

Edited February 6, 2014 by snowking

[Gibby]

Good morning folks. Here is todays look at the midnight releases of output from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday February 6th 2014, taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models show Low pressure filling to the North of the UK with another system moving up across Southern Britain later today and clearing out into the North Sea tonight. Sunshine and showers over the North today but heavy rain will again affect the South and East and will not clear until after midnight tonight. it will though be much less windy today. Tomorrow and the weekend sees a showery period tomorrow being replaced by another active Low pressure bringing a sequence of events similar to yesterday with gales and heavy rain replaced by showers over the weekend. The rain will be heavy and the gales severe for further damage in places. Through the weekend it will feel cold and some of the showers could turn to snow over the hills though amounts away from the highest ground should not be problematic.

 

GFS then shows next week as very unsettled yet again with further heavy rain and showers at times moving steadily West to East off the Atlantic and giving further snow over the hills. Later in this morning's operational run a change to High pressure finally arrives with drier or dry weather likely with a welcome respite for flood afflicted areas though occasional rain is still possible towards the NW at times in temperatures rather chilly with some frost at night.

 

The GFS Ensembles show average temperatures prevailing over the two week period with further heavy rain at times though rainfall amounts are trending towards lessening somewhat later.

 

UKMO this morning shows yet another deep Low swinging NE over the UK next Tuesday with yet another spell of heavy rain and gales with a sunshine and squally shower mix towards midweek in a strong Westerly flow. However one cannot fail to notice yet another depression in the Western Atlantic already lying in wait to the far SW of Britain to affect the UK soon after midweek.

 

GEM is very depressing again this morning with Low pressure totally dominant with small disturbances within the main Low complex centred near Britain keeping the risk of heavy rain and showers going.

 

NAVGEM shows little change to the pattern we have become accustomed too with further Low pressure powered by a main Low pressure complex to the North with further heavy rain and showers to come.

 

ECM today shows no let up in the procession of Low pressure piling in from the SW with further spells of heavy rain alternating with blustery and very strong winds and blustery showers.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show little or no change to the pattern at Day 9 and 1O with the Jet flow well to the South with Low pressure likely to be just to or over the North of the UK with a UK based trough indicating the continuing prospect of further rain at times in average temperatures and winds between South and West.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The Jet Stream shows an unrelenting path East across the Atlantic to the South of the UK. The flow is already strong and strengthens further at times which looks like maintaining the feed of deep depressions and heavy rain for the reliable future. Clutching at straws there are some hints of the flow moving slowly North late in the run but we have to remember this is the GFS prediction and is not a cross model prediction.

 

In Summary this morning the weather remains extremely unsettled and often wet with heavy rain at times in a continuing feed of Low pressure areas moving across the UK from off the Atlantic. Strong winds will also be a feature at times giving it's own problems for some and in addition it may be cold enough at times for some snowfall, especially on Northern hills though in the grand scheme of things this is of little consequence in comparison to the other major disruption down in the SW currently. GFS does hint at a slow shift north of the Jet Flow in Week 2 possibly allowing less rainfall in the South over the week after next but such improvements look very tentative again this morning and will need to be supported by the other longer term models from GEM and ECM when it falls within their time restraints before we can begin to become more confident on a possible change.

[nick sussex]

I imagine a relief to many that the intense low shown on last nights ECM has gone although it still looks windy and wet. If you take the 850s at face value then a chance for some snow as a low zips quickly eastwards between T144 and 168hrs. After that although the Canadian PV weakens and edges nw pressure rises to the se stopping the eastwards movement of the trough, looking at the ECM mean thats an outlier solution at present.

 

The GFS suggests a chance for something drier and colder but  not until the lower resolution output.The GEFS are showing a few colder options but overall theres still alot of more wetter and average solutions.

[MR EXTREMES]

im pretty confident we got a cold second half to feb and cold spring on the way ive noticed on every output the last few days of a growing trend for heights to rise to our east but this time building north and west towards iceland and greenland im watching it with great detail.

 

but in the closer timeframe some more nasty weather to be had with very strong winds and absolutely massive rainfall totals.

 

but most certainly starting to see the end of the vortex dominated weather towards the end of all model runs i think another few days and things will look brighter but get colder not extreme but i would not rule out another wintry march.

 

as for this rain its really rather extreme and my heart goes out to all that suffered.

ive never seen southsea canoe lake like this ever its pretty scary knowing its not over yet.

[chris78]

Yes karl,underwhelming from a cold perspective.

There is a thread for the storms flooding etc i was commenting on the ongoing Atlantic dominated 0z charts.

Sorry mods....

 

But this thread is for discussing the models and the headline from the models is, as all winter severely Atlantic dominated....its a bit rich to push any discussion of that severity to another thread......particularly as this thread should really be called the hunt for cold thread.............this winter really has taken the biscuit.....despite the MODELS constantly showing severe events, they are largely brushed over in favor of a discussion about slim Fi chances of something colder......which is fine people love cold weather....but dont pretend its a model discussion thread...as I said hunt for cold thread would be more apt.    

[MR EXTREMES]

Pretty clear to me that from mid Feb onwards (especially 3rd week of Feb) we shall see an end to this stormy pattern with pressure rising. You can see this clearly on the SLP mean for the UK and other places like Iceland.

 

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140206/00/prmslReyjavic.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140206/00/prmslCambridgeshire.png

 

So next week we have the potential for snowfall to occur in some locations followed by more settled weather and probably colder weather the week after. Personally I still fancy a decent cold spell to develop during this period.

absolutely tetis i been watching with great interest and there is clear signs showing your ideas.

i still fancy mid feb and march to be cooler than average if not colder.

[Frosty.]

Yes karl,underwhelming from a cold perspective.

There is a thread for the storms flooding etc i was commenting on the ongoing Atlantic dominated 0z charts.

Storms and flooding is what the latest models are showing so it's very relevant to this thread, very overwhelming weather for many, especially for those in the flooded / storm bound southwest and trending colder with an increasing chance of sleet and wet snow with ice & frost overnight.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Storms and flooding is what the latest models are showing so it's very relevant to this thread, very overwhelming weather for many, especially for those in the flooded / storm bound southwest and trending colder with an increasing chance of sleet and wet snow with ice & frost overnight.

Karl,im not saying its not relevant but there is another thread for indepth analysis of the storm situation.

I posted about the 0z runs being Atlantic driven with a small window of opportunity next week for something more wintry in the north,which is what the ecm/ukmo runs show.