Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[fergieweather]

Chief at Exeter toning-down wintry PPN signal, especially lower ground, in the SE versus raw NAE... minimal support / very muted signal in other UKMO products and ditto EC, so don't hold your breath for anything 'worthwhile' in the SE tomorrow... still a low but discernable signal over Chilterns and across to Cotswolds, but it's a non-event in the grand scheme of things, in any case.

[A.J]

0 degree line much further west at 72 hours compared to ukmo!!!!think it will make a difference to maybe some snow before the rain follows through!!

yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!..............maybe it will!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sorry Shaky, but when ever there's the slighest 0.0001% of snow, your posts remind me of this...

 

 

Calm down bud, you'll give yourself a hernia

 

 

so far the 12z run's make for pretty grim viewing regarding progged rainfall totals (especially the SW) over the next few days

[Captain Shortwave]

Hmm I might be wrong but the ECM might throw a lifeline at day 6

Day 6 

Well I guess a few effort points can be given

Shame really the high to the north east gets split in half with low pressure dropping into western Russia, probably too little to late.

Edited January 28, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[shaky]

yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!..............maybe it will!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sorry Shaky, but when ever there's the slighest 0.0001% of snow, your posts remind me of this...

 

SuperStock_1525R-99599.jpg

 

Calm down bud, you'll give yourself a hernia

 

 

so far the 12z run's make for pretty grim viewing regarding progged rainfall totals (especially the SW) over the next few days

lol!!true!!just pretty desperate for some snow!!but hopefully the models show something more positive in the next few days!!just as I say that the ecm shows something better around 120 hours!!

[Eskimo]

Much better ECM! Low bounces off the block. 

 

+144h.

 

 

+168h

Edited January 28, 2014 by PerfectStorm

[Eskimo]

Could the little feature over the Azores bring an undercut? 

+192h

Edited January 28, 2014 by PerfectStorm

[Bobby]

Could the little feature over the Azores bring an undercut? 

+192h

 

A deepening LP about to swing up and hit the UK I'd wager.

[TSNWK]

Could the little feature over the Azores bring an undercut?

+192h

I would say no, what would it undercut when the high is setting up over the Balkans . More likley to see a Bartlett positioned high at 216 and 240 me thinks Edited January 28, 2014 by TSNWK

[Eskimo]

YES!!     (Well it's better than the previous output!)

+216h

Edited January 28, 2014 by PerfectStorm

[Tim Bland]

Maybe we should move to Florida...here's the scene earlier today !

[TSNWK]

YES!!     (Well it's better than the previous output!)

+216h

Not seeing anything good there. It's just pumping up mild air from Spain...

[Eskimo]

Maybe we should move to Florida...here's the scene earlier today !

image.jpg

Must be an older photo, there's no precipitation over Florida. 

[Polar Maritime]

There are no lifelines Captain S, the writing is on the wall for the foreseeable future unfortunately !!!

 

And that chart CS posted is just out of the foreseeable in imo, let's see where we end up after this deep low has swung through during the weekend, the weather is not written on the wall by no means that far out.

 

Im not hunting for Cold and im not expecting a deep freeze any time soon, just being realistic. anything can happen 6/7 days out,  this is standard stuff ! be it summer or Winter. 

Edited January 28, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Mokidugway]

Suprised there's any straws left in this country, whith the amount of clutching that goes on on here !!...

[skadi]

EC +240 ends with fairly mild uppers apart from Scotland 

[kev238]

All the signals point to wet and mildish for first two weeks of February , that means two weeks of winter left . Of course things can change but I would wage the pattern is set now .

[Bobby]

YES!!     (Well it's better than the previous output!)

+216h

 

 

Heavy rain and mild over the UK. Another troubling run the ECM 12z with regards to rainfall amounts for the W/SW especially.

 

12z GEFS mean at day 8 and 12

 

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Ridiculous I know but the last 2 charts on ECM shows the Russian high back west and cold air flooding into Europe again , with the positioning on the low pressure with a negative tilt looks like it could begin to undercut.

All change in 12 hours though I expect .

[swfc]

Wow look them rain amounts running into february!!!!Slightly more amplified on the ecm but brings nothing but stalling fronts and unwanted rain.Im ready for spring which hopefully will dry things out ete.wawaw

[nick sussex]

Looks like Putin will be happy, the start of the Olympics could be very cold with high pressure to the ne there and they've had some good snow recently so it all looks very good going into the early alpine events.

 

Closer to home its variations on the same theme across the models, a cold blip, some snow for the far north especially inland areas of Scotland and loads for the mountains as that deep low moves in,troughing close throughout the next ten days and more likely beyond, a valiant attempt by the block to the east to edge the troughing west but its like David meets Goliath, no match really.

 

The ECM probably the least worst in terms of a zonal horror show but we're talking degrees of awfulness rather than  anything cold potential wise, the T144hrs flattered and then imploded soon after.

 

Overall a stalemate likely, it will change at some point but no clear sign of when!

[Bobby]

Ridiculous I know but the last 2 charts on ECM shows the Russian high back west and cold air flooding into Europe again , with the positioning on the low pressure with a negative tilt looks like it could begin to undercut.All change in 12 hours though I expect .

 

If the run went further that low will surely merge with the deep upper trough to our W with us soon to be blasted by another full Atlantic frontal assault as the energy hurtles our way.

[Gaz1985]

Ridiculous I know but the last 2 charts on ECM shows the Russian high back west and cold air flooding into Europe again , with the positioning on the low pressure with a negative tilt looks like it could begin to undercut.

All change in 12 hours though I expect .

 

It only really gets to central and Eastern Ukraine/Belarus though not even Poland.

 

It's colder right now across Eastern and Northern Europe than will probably be the case by 7th Feb. Currently sub zero across the Eastern bloc and has been for over a week.

 

Tomorrow

 

 

Milder by 7th Feb, still things can change but as of now not really significant nor unusual.

 

Edited January 28, 2014 by Gaz1985

[winterof79]

Excuse my ignorance,but has the NAE gone for good on weatheronline and been replaced by euro4,or can it be viewed anywhere.I find Euro4 charts poor really.

 

And before anybody asks why....its because they do not show enough pink snow.....at least it made me feel better even if it didnt actually end up that way.

Edited January 28, 2014 by winterof79

[Rustynailer]

Looking at the output today, I will be surprised if we have had the worst of the wind and rain already, we think we have, we hope we have, but we may have the worst right at the end.

March and April for snow anybody? More chance of deep stuff then IMO

The output says rain and wind to me.

If we are lucky one of those Lows may spin that fast it drags cold and snow from the NE, I say lucky, because I already am, I love winter windy Lows. One with snow would share the luck a bit.....

April 94 on the Eastern Isle of wight(where I lived then) we got 8 inches in about 90 minutes out of a Low that spun West to East along the Channel and dragged cold air from the NE. Dinner plate size flakes at one point, no kidding.

 

Oh god I caught that again.....

Edited January 28, 2014 by Rustynailer

[Panayiotis]

From the start of the winter, I had always believed that March would be a cold month (due to the constant signal gave out by the 9month CFS. Both of the CFS (1month and 9 month) show a blocked month on their latest runs.

Edited January 28, 2014 by Panayiotis