Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[Purga]

Here's another fantasy Tim

 

Heavy snow for Wales and the W Midlands

Time to get some kip these charts are doing my head in G'nite folks.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Yet again, the rain is the eye catcher in the 18z. If ever 40 days and 40 nights of rain was to be believed, the current charts don't really get much closer!

[Panayiotis]

Can anyone point me to where the 528line is on the Fax @120hrs cant seem to see it!?

[Jason M]

Can anyone point me to where the 528line is on the Fax @120hrs cant seem to see it!?

Canada :-)

[weather eater]

Just seen the 18z anyone got a life jacket I can borrow, better still a boat.

[Argyle1980]

What makes this weekend even worse is that we have some big tides and now we have this low stalling over us......

Big problems.

That high to our east is turning into a problem now!

[Panayiotis]

Canada :-)

Haha really funny! I mean over/near us!

[Argyle1980]

Just seen the 18z anyone got a life jacket I can borrow, better still a boat.

More like an Ark.

[Jason M]

Haha really funny! I mean over/near us!

Although I said it in jest looking at charts like this the nearest 528 Line to us probably is over Canada. You don't get a much warmer set up for Europe as a whole than this.http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=150&mode=0

[pdiddy]

Can anyone point me to where the 528line is on the Fax @120hrs cant seem to see it!?

Wrapped around the top of the low, and down the North Sea, placing UK in the warm(er) sector... as usual

[Cloud 10]

Can anyone point me to where the 528line is on the Fax @120hrs cant seem to see it!?

 

As shown by this superb paint job 

 

 

 

edit.

 

Easier to see on the 18z gfs on wetterzentrale.

 

Edited January 27, 2014 by Cloud 10

[Panayiotis]

As shown by this superb paint job 

 

PPVO89.gif

 

 

edit.

 

Easier to see on the 18z gfs on wetterzentrale.

 

Rtavn1203.png

Ah Im very thankful but sorry as the FAX charts on the meteociel website havent updated (even though it says it has :L), that 120hrs chart is far more easier to read compared to the 120hrs charts I was seeing!

Anyway chart above, shows UK clearly under 528 air, and with an occluded front embedded in that air places could see some snow even at lower levels. Waiting for high res NASA model to update to see more clearly what the uppers are, and if it picks up the front...

Edited January 27, 2014 by Panayiotis

[fergieweather]

Latest EC Monthly runs-up striking positive temp anomalies across all Europe/UK progressively through February after chilly opening gambit, with ensemble means by w/e 26th showing low heights to N/W, (weaker) high to S (Iberia) and SW flow dominating. It's been on the money since early December, so performance through these last few weeks of winter will be very interesting indeed.

Edited January 27, 2014 by fergieweather

[Panayiotis]

Latest EC Monthly runs-up striking positive temp anomalies across all Europe/UK progressively through February after chilly opening gambit, with ensemble means by w/e 26th showing low heights to N/W, (weaker) high to S (Iberia) and SW flow dominating. It's been on the money since early December, so performance through these last few weeks of winter will be very interesting indeed.

Not what we all wanted to hear, but I guess thats the way forward looking at tonight's models. Would that mean more than usual rain (?) a very big issue coming up over the next few weeks! 

Edited January 27, 2014 by Panayiotis

[The Beast From The East]

Hi Ian, does this mean more of the wet stuff in the mild form? Hope not. :/

Latest EC Monthly runs-up striking positive temp anomalies across all Europe/UK progressively through February after chilly opening gambit, with ensemble means by w/e 26th showing low heights to N/W, (weaker) high to S (Iberia) and SW flow dominating. It's been on the money since early December, so performance through these last few weeks of winter will be very interesting indeed.

[Frosty.]

Sounds like winter is over then..hold on, winter hasn't even started. More flooding, more gales..what crime have we committed to deserve a ghastly winter like this?

[Panayiotis]

NASA model updated and it shows some very cold air arriving from the WEST/NORTHWEST:

As for PPN, it only shows some showers but its very similar to what occurred last night, wind/blizzards being a problem in Scotland:

Edited January 27, 2014 by Panayiotis

[fergieweather]

Not what we all wanted to hear, but I guess thats the way forward looking at tonight's models. Would that mean more than usual rain (?) a very big issue coming up over the next few weeks!

+ve PPN anomaly remains pronounced until mid-Feb (especially SW). Wanes after then.

[Frosty.]

The snow in March was okay, but please not another miserable cold spring like last year after that!

Since feb sounds like a busted flush according to EC32 outlook..march could deliver with the SST's at their coldest, anything from the north and east will really pack a punch despite the sun gaining strength.

[syed2878]

well what a turn around from the nwp. Just a few days ago we were looking at some excelent outcomes until saturday when ukmo began the downgrades. Looking at tonights outputs it's mor wos for the poor folks in the sw u.k with rain, winds and floods to come. I don't think some how the strat will be our friend this time around. As ian f said on 1 of his post the met arnt making much of the forecast strat warming. Taking the ecmf tonight anything good is again 168h away. I think ian f's comments regarding the ecmf 32day output sums up this crap of a winter.

[geordiekev]

Was hoping some of the many experts here could provide a bit of advice on the latest outputs from 18z regarding the coolness of the expected lows that are possibly coming our way.

Despite the model agreement that the lows are due to attack us again from the Canadian vortex, does the fact that the vortex appears to have shifted much further east over Greenland, prevent the very cold lows from being mixed out by the Atlantic as our current low still managed to bring some wintriness our way and the gfs precipitation charts show the possibility of snow to higher ground pretty much throughout the run on the 18z.

I have attached charts which show our current low modeled on 21st and our upcoming low due on 31st for comparison.

Thanks in advance. Been a lurker for 6 years and very much still learning the more technical details so sorry if a dumb question.

Edited January 28, 2014 by geordiekev

[winterof79]

Just when you want energy to push s/e ECM sends it due North from us at 96 onwards

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=96&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

A little energy spawned as it exits toward the pole.

Edited January 28, 2014 by winterof79

[mountain shadow]

0z summary...

Wet and windy.

The end.

[snowmadchrisuk]

0z summary...Wet and windy.The end.

 

Yes the precipitation spikes for the SW on the ensembles are quite Incredible, I think this will turn out to probably be the wettest January on record , at least for my part of the country, Also looking like on the 3 months as a whole this Winter will turn out to be one of the mildest on record... Would like to see a dramatic shift in the Models even just to raise a bit of excitement in here , but can't see where it is going to come from, only straw I can clutch is in it's later stages the GFS seem's to be taking the PV much further West,

[Jason M]

Ensembles for GEM and GFS are so bad it's actually funny. A couple of GEMs bring in the 20c at 850 into Spain with 14 to 16 at 850 being a common sight. Not good for the ski resorts.

Astonishing really the turnaround in the charts in the last few days. I've never seen a winter with no snow here but that's we're we are headed. Still time though.

Edited January 28, 2014 by Jason M