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Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards


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looks much the same. the navgem on the the other hand ..........

 

It is much the same - very progressive.

 

better than the 12z by quite a bit!!compare it and you will see that things are slightly further west and also that low to the northwest is undercutting a bit more to the west of ireland!!

 

I think you are probably comparing it with a chart that is 6 hours ahead - check the times.

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Just got round to having a peek at the 18z and what good fun it was, the problem so many of you on this thread seem to have, is that you seem you think runs will verify or that one of the ensemble members will. The truth is the climate is in a state of constant flux and synoptic patterns do not just pop out of a computer program, they evolve, the computer just makes educated guesses, sometimes they are right or near enough and sometimes not, there is always the capacity to surprise.

 

Which is why I said this earlier.

 

"For me nothing is set in stone the data is renewed every run so there is always the prospect of something worthwhile just out of sight, its why I like weather watching so much, the evolution never stops."

 

Personally I recommend Tamara's more shall we say holistic approach, we might see nothing of note this winter, but that looking at the wider picture approach is more likely to pay dividends than hanging on every run, I only do that for the fun of the banter at least when people are showing each other respect, not because i expect runs to verify.

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ALL 18z runs except the NAVGEM have swung the slider low back west & at a more acute angle- that's the 18z GFS,JMA 84 18z (v12z) + the ensembles & control-

 

interesting....

S

 

Not so sure Steve. GFS Op yes. JMA hard to do a comparison with 12z because have to compare with chart 6h ahead, looks slightly better but negligible really.

GFS ensembles were interesting, the first half were better but the second half generally worse than the 12z out to 96h - there must be a reason for that but it does show a small tweak of the starting conditions gives wildly varying results by 120h for our neck of the woods.

 

Here are the pressure ensembles for NW England with the scatter beginning just 78h out and wide scatter at that.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=239&y=37&run=18&runpara=0&type=1&ext=1

 

Goes to show that as far as the ensembles are concerned the slider option is still up for grabs

Edited by Mucka
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GFS continues to toy with a positive anomaly in the Pacific which makes all previous ridges look feeble and weak.

Posted Image

That's not normal in the slightest and certainly wouldn't be aiding zonality.

GFS is an an interesting run, maybe I should keep my mind open just until tomorrows output to see whether we can rescue the end of week slider.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Still a lot of uncertainty tonight but the most important period for noteworthy weather is still around five days away.  One key feature is the modelling of a chilly polar maritime incursion from the north-west at 6 days out.

GFS:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140126/18/144/h850t850eu.png

ECMWF:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20140126/12/ecmt850.144.png

UKMO:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

 

UKMO has a direct hit coming in from the north-west, GFS has a fairly cold pool over the country, while the ECMWF has relatively mild air associated with the depression core.  I still feel that for most low-lying areas, there would be mainly rain/sleet rather than snow if the GFS came off, but when cold polar maritime air meets continental air there is always potential for marginal frontal snow events as the models can be unreliable at handling temperatures and frontal positioning at quite short notice in those situations.

 

NOAA's 6-14 day outlook paints a depressing picture for snow lovers with the trough centred to the west of the British Isles and mainly south-westerly winds the result, which is also in line with what I've been hearing/reading from the Met Office outlooks.  Thus, we're probably looking at a few days of opportunity for lowland snowfall at around days 5-9 before it turns milder from the SW, but it remains to be seen whether this potential will be realised after a few failures earlier in the winter.  Of course we have a couple of days of easterlies before that, but I maintain a view that the air profile will be too stable to support much in the way of showery activity over the North Sea.  Eastern Scotland will probably have a fair number of light to moderate showers but I expect these to mainly fall as rain.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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NASA model has performed well with tonight, especially upper air temps. Latest 12z shows widespread -8C uppers- coldest of the winter to reach Central England if it occurs (105hrs)

Posted Image

Edited by Panayiotis
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Exellant GFS for a snow event but it's always wrong so we can disregard that so looking at the UKMO and back to the zonal train wet and windy and times close to average temps.

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Morning... Well both GFS and UKMO-GM look different synoptically this morning for the end the week and the weekend, with the GFS more more inclined to bring in the slider type approach from the Atlantic.. However in my view both runs look like rain, just colder rain from the GFS..

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The Manchester GFS 0z ensembles make grim reading if you want a decent cold or even just a dry spell. No sign of any. If anything the 2m temperatures get milder as we move through February.

You begin to wonder just how wet this winter is going to turn out, it has already been very wet without even February contributing anything.

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Abysmal output this morning carrying on from yesterdays downgrades with an Easterly fart followed by relentless wind and rain being modelled.

Some places may still see some snow falling before it turns to rain but hardly a winter wonderland in the offing. 

 

GFS ensembles (comfortably least cold set yet)

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=253&y=81

 

On a plus note things can only improve from here and they will.

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So I expect this morning a few people will be waking up and smelling the Atlantic coffee, the writing has been on the wall for several days now, all be it with the usual messy flip flopping around. 

 

Bottom line is that for all intensive purposes and unless there is a monumental shift , it's another round won by the Atlantic steam train. 

 

I suspect the 06z run is too progressive, however,  and that the block will put up more of a fight than is being shown by the Op run. 

 

As has already been mentioned it's likely to be the rain which once again is going to be cause for major concern as we go through the early part of Feb, if we're going to see a Winter at all this year it's looking more and more likely that it will have to come in the final 2 weeks as I just can't see how we're going to get anything before then looking at the ensembles and the way that High pressure looks like it might take up residence over central Europe.

 

what I am seeing in FI for several days now is a very similar set up to what we had at the very beginning of this Winter and close to a return to...dare I say the dreaded Bartlett.

 

ECM now beginning to pick up on this too.

 

Posted Image

 

It really is a LONG way back to anything remotely cold from that sort of set up.

 

the UKMO + 144 paints a really horrible picture from a cold lovers perspective as well >>

 

Posted Image

 

BUT we do have this week to look forward to and no doubt some of you up North will at the very least see something white falling from the sky, but for the vast majority the only white stuff falling from the sky will be out of the back side of a passing feathered creature. 

 

On the bright side, I've probably saved £200 on Gas bills this winter, compared to last year !

 

 

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Well once again the models have led us up the garden path

Will never trust ukmo again

Lol.

Hopefully enough time left for it to start to look better.

But who will really take notice when it does.

Here's hoping the flip back to cold charts will be as quick as the flip from yesterday.

Whenever that may be.

Trying very very hard to keep faith here.

Edited by snowbob
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More flooding on the way, turning milder with heavy rain and gales on friday and into next weekend according to the modelsPosted Image , as for temperatures, max temps between 6-9c today and tomorrow after icy starts, a bit cooler on wednesday / thursday as we pick up a NE'ly flow with the risk of a few light wintry showers to eastern coastal areas, then it's back to atlantic domination, probably ending up with a nw / se split with the south and east improving at times and the most unsettled weather for the north and west as we go further into February.

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Well Laura Tobin is saying arctic air from the east later this week. Am I missing something!

sadly it's a blink or miss it sham..gibby was right againPosted Image

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I know patience is the watch word, and if this was late December that would not be a problem. However the GEFS are awful, at T240 90% are zonal.

 

Mean at T240: post-14819-0-22893500-1390807578_thumb.p

 

At T384 all but one is zonal, mean: post-14819-0-74414800-1390807609_thumb.p

 

Notice the Canadian PV, for a mean that is as strong as it has been. Some for an example:

 

post-14819-0-24165800-1390807711_thumb.p post-14819-0-71816400-1390807721_thumb.p post-14819-0-95949900-1390807730_thumb.p

 

You can guess where the monster cold is going to be still: post-14819-0-78145200-1390807789_thumb.p

 

As I said before, a SSW if it happens is a bonus, but sitting back assuming it will happen, and happen in good time is not going to effect what the medium term (best part of winter) is going to show on the charts. eg. one run today (GFS) appears to delay that SSW (if it happens).

 

I could post horrible charts but looking for positives:

 

GEM is at least showing a PV in lobes: post-14819-0-75184200-1390808185_thumb.p  ...so not as zonal as GFS

 

ECM maybe slightly drier for the south: post-14819-0-94673200-1390808321_thumb.g

 

I have been impressed with the GFS op, it has been an outlier for higher temps nearly every run, gradually dragging its members into milder territory. Today it has dragged the mean even closer in FI:

 

post-14819-0-74507300-1390808424_thumb.g

 

If the trend is anything, wet and milder (mild even) with zero chances of snow for London after this week.

 

All can change but currently very poor and the trend is going sharply in the wrong direction. The Strat remains our best chance.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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