Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[Mucka]

Looks like JMA is lining up a very progressive run this evening as well.

 

[bluearmy]

The NH profile on the gefs at T192 looks very promising with most members showing a disorganised pattern re the vortex segments. the trend is for the Siberian chunk to head towards the pole in week 2. I wonder if that's what will happen?

[shaky]

To be fair am sure we'll know which way the ecm is going come 72 hours!!just gota look west and see how all those lows are positioning themselves!!so we dont have to look too far!!anyway here we go!!

[skadi]

 

This output by JMA  looks tasty, but might be too short-lived for some of us. Lot of energy coming across the Atlantic.

[The Northern Ramper]

The one thing that is keeping me going here is that every model without question underestimates blocking to our east, there will be 100% westward corrections within T48

[A.J]

A quick reminder, this is not the fergieweather tweet thread or the anybody tweet thread, nor is it the met office forecast thread....It is, in fact, believe it or not, the Model Output Discussion thread.......The subtle clue is in the title

Edited January 26, 2014 by ajpoolshark

[Barking_Mad]

Could someone briefly explain what needs to happen for the block to move westwards?

[Long haul to mild]

From Ian earlier today@fergieweather: Once colder snap ends (in circa 6-7 days), @metoffice expect rtn to unsettled W/SW flow into foreseeable & no prolonged dry spell

Question is, what is the "foreseeable"? The MetO have access to various mid and long range models but none of those are infallible. A trend could be there for up to 10 days maybe, but I don't think you could rule anything out after that.

 

The model output so far tonight suggests an unsettled outlook, so a dry spell does look unlikely, but the wintriness of it is certainly still open to question.

 

The GFS and UKMO are starkly different at 6 days, so it's a very tricky period for the models to negotiate.

Edited January 26, 2014 by Long haul to mild

[nick sussex]

The ECM at T96hrs looks more like the GFS than the UKMO, well that's something to be thankful for!

[IDO]

Looking at the GEFS at D10, pretty average fare. The 850s mean sums it up:  

 

One cold/wintry run there:   

 

Next best run: 

 

Rest meh for UK surface conditions even though they are all rather dissimilar in terms of the NH PV profile:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=240

 

Not a good sign.

 

 

[weather eater]

Could someone briefly explain what needs to happen for the block to move westwards?

 A Miracle and the ECM can't do it

Edited January 26, 2014 by weather eater

[karlos1983]

 A Miracle and the ECM can't do it

 

of biblical proportions, ECM does it for me, over and out, nice try though.

[Summer Sun]

T120 from ECM, and of the big 3 it has the low at its deepest

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Prefer UKMO of the big 3 at 144, looks a very cold NW'ly, GFS and ECM not cold at 144

[skadi]

EC + 144 looks like a slider...?

[bluearmy]

The problem with the undercut is that it relies on the small feature that heads up from the atlantic originating off se states (warm core) either not being there (navgem) or not engaging the PFj and subsequently deepening rapidly. Plenty of the gefs manage to do this but that shouldn't excite coldies as the origin of the system is early on in the run and the ops will have a better handle on it. the decent fi runs from middle last week clearly couldn't pick this system well at such a range and that's why we had so many runs with a good Atlantic profile wrt the blocking to our east.

[bluearmy]

EC + 144 looks like a slider...?

It has to slide - the problem is that its deepened so much, it's tracked too far ne before sliding. The excellent ens ens from fri clearly couldn't pick the fact that the low deepened so much. Tbh, at 30km resolution pre day 11, the ECM ens should have coped ok with it.

And it doesn't slide for very long either !

Edited January 26, 2014 by bluearmy

[IDO]

T168: 

 

Cross-model consensus now.

 

Down in the SE next Friday/Saturday looks like cold rain from all main models.

[Stuie]

Is that a super scandi block emerging again... this is a shift West.

[Jason T]

T120 from ECM, and of the big 3 it has the low at its deepest

 

 

 

That's 5 days out SS, Is it not main consensus, That forecasting based on model output from 4 days out is proving difficult. Its the classic battle ground scenario and if I'm right Westerlies are always more favoured in output. Very much all to play for still I would say.

[swfc]

Atlantic pushes threw on ecm at 168hrs but the pressure to the north east looks stronger?Thats my last straw clutch this winter btw

[bryan629]

The one thing that is keeping me going here is that every model without question underestimates blocking to our east, there will be 100% westward corrections within T48

Excellent, your not alone with your way of thinking...a block of that magnitude to our east with large amounts of already embedded freezing air is NOT going anywhere soon.strat warming will re-inforce it at the same time as demolishing the energy to the west....the models have not quite grasped the idea as yet, hence all the inter model flip flopping.looking anything beyond 72/96 hrs is pretty pointless Edited January 26, 2014 by bryan629

[SMU]

It appears to be game over tonight in this awful winter were having-

 

The slider was setting up perfect until we got the phasing with the small system rushing off the east coast.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012612/ECH1-120.GIF?26-0

 

Cold, with maybe a wintry shower in the NE in the day 4-5 frame, post that atlantic gets squeezed against the block to the east, but not enough SE motion & to much NE motion means any battle ground is way up to Scandi

 

 

Blocking remains over Svalbard & northern Scandi, so more opportunities down the line- however not a lot on offer tonight.

 

S

I must admit ive already had enough of this winter .

Edited January 26, 2014 by Steve Murr

[skadi]

That purple blob over NFL  (with ref to Tamara!) still not backing away...

[bluearmy]

interesting NH profile at day 7. Coupled with the gefs day 7/8, if I hadn't seen any fi output, I'd be sure of a big block forming to our north/ne.