Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[shaky]

? 

sorry mate I meant the one between 120 and 144 hours which the gfs shows!!!gfs takes that one across the channel whereas the ukmo takes it into the continent!!

[gottolovethisweather]

sorry mate I meant the one between 120 and 144 hours which the gfs shows!!!gfs takes that one across the channel whereas the ukmo takes it into the continent!!

 

Best place for it.

 

The 850s aren't too bad by the time the Friday depression is on the agenda hence the increased snow risk, all very irrelevant really though at such a timeframe, but ONE TO WATCH.

 

 

 

Edited February 1, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[shaky]

Best place for it.

lol!!yeh especially with what we have been through this winter rain wise and wind wise!!

[Argyle1980]

Deep into FI but things still looking dire for us in the SW

So the gfs loses the pressure rise for the south.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

That low coming up from Madeira/Iberia area next week could bring copious amount of rain, especially over the Midlands and Central/S England. The front just grinds to a halt as the low pivots over SE England. We are already in a serious situation, very worrying indeed.

[Bobby]

Looks like it's the ECM and GEM vs UKMO and GFS with regards to the low on Thursday-Friday, the former developing it much more

 

The pressure rise is gone on the GFS 12z, more in line with other the indications now. Atlantic in control from start to finish

 

Edited February 1, 2014 by Bobby

[Jason M]

That low coming up from Madeira/Iberia area next week could bring copious amount of rain, especially over the Midlands and Central/S England. The front just grinds to a halt as the low pivots over SE England. We are already in a serious situation, very worrying indeed.

 

 

Yes, it was really notable last night as well. Could be even worse as well as its the sort of set up that lead to wave depressions forming and running NE along the frontal zone. Lots of moisture, warm seas, low pressure etc. Ticks all the boxes for a complete nightmare given the current situation.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z is a wetter run for most of the UK after 3 showed hints of something drier developing longer term

 

 

Another 60mm to 90mm possible in the south west of England and wales by 12pm on the 9th parts of eastern England and northern Scotland look the driest places over the next week with around only 15mm of rain

 

Edited February 1, 2014 by Summer Sun

[draztik]

GFS ensembles, after showing promise in earlier runs, esp for Southern regions re ridging into wk2; now less keen on the 12z suite. Temp anomaly continues to support a strong positive anomaly in the continent with the UK average to slightly above, into days 10-15.

[Summer Sun]

ECM out to t168 now and its as you were sadly with low after low coming our way

 

[Summer Sun]

Tentative signs from ECM at t216 that something more settled could develop at t240 just when GFS drops the idea ECM comes on board! before t240 a colder north westerly flow develops

 

Edited February 1, 2014 by Summer Sun

[fergieweather]

Yes, it was really notable last night as well. Could be even worse as well as its the sort of set up that lead to wave depressions forming and running NE along the frontal zone. Lots of moisture, warm seas, low pressure etc. Ticks all the boxes for a complete nightmare given the current situation.

Agreed. Plus further coastal issues. Very troubling.

[Summer Sun]

And at t240 high pressure is back on ECM

 

 

Probably wouldn't last long but a nice change!

Edited February 1, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Eskimo]

The silence in here during and after the ECM run tells a milion words! Dire, dire, dire!

[draztik]

 Probably wouldn't last long but a nice change!

the way things are going, every little helps!

[Duane S.]

I posted a few days ago that the charts had a menacing look about them for next weekend, let alone the week leading up to it! Nothing I have seen since has changed my thinking on this. These lows being spawned out in the Mid Atlantic and more specifically this time around, their track, have got to be a major cause for concern in their own right, let alone on top of what we have already received. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

And at t240 high pressure is back on ECM

 

 

Probably wouldn't last long but a nice change!

 

What, at 240 on ECMWF, deepest FI

[Cloud 10]

The silence in here during and after the ECM run tells a milion words! Dire, dire, dire!

 

Three charts from the 12z ECM pretty much sums up the weather for the week ahead,and it

won't be pleasant.

 

[Purga]

Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday looks horrendous for a vast section of the UK should it verify as per the current GFS predictions. Another round of fun and games into Friday too, with a depression visiting our shores via a path from almost off the coast of West Africa.  Copious amounts of snow possible for a time over the more elevated parts and perhaps not exclusively so, in the case of the second depression.

 

Will be watching this saga unfold over all NWP outputs in the forthcoming days. Tis safe to say, the weather feels angry right now and sadly so will a few folk, should these events unfold as suggested. Far from boring, whichever way you look at it and hopefully a drier signal can make its presence felt come the week after next.

It'll be a case of gottohatethisweather now won't it gottolovethisweather.....

[bryan629]

Agreed. Plus further coastal issues. Very troubling.

actually it looks like a snow event for southern half of the uk according to gfs. I suspect evaporative cooling if this were to verify

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uppers at 144

 

 

[Tamara]

I posted a few days ago that the charts had a menacing look about them for next weekend, let alone the week leading up to it! Nothing I have seen since has changed my thinking on this. These lows being spawned out in the Mid Atlantic and more specifically this time around, their track, have got to be a major cause for concern in their own right, let alone on top of what we have already received. 

Yes indeed, and the pattern upstream over the Pacific looks to continue to do us no favours whatsoever for some time to come. We have the persistent Alaskan ridge which phil talked about this afternoon, and this is being recycled and re-initialised by the warm SST pool as a result of the persistence of that Eastern Pacific High pressure area through most of the winter and the vortex therefore locked in place over Canada - much as phil said.

 

We also have seen recently rapidly cooling waters in the ENSO 3.4 region of the pacific and this is likely to keep the eastern parts of the states colder than average well into February, despite occasional temperature recoveries, and therefore provide us with an invigorated sub tropical jetstream. This is currently well modelled for the coming week.

 

 

Both these Pacific SST anomalies show clearly here

 

 

 

 

With the PNA heading negative then we lose the upstream split flow conditions of recently that helped give us the trough disruption in the atlantic and we see a flat extremely fast pattern head downstream as part of the ramping up of the latest atlantic assault.

 

 

So that package of factors makes up the complete article that defines the entrenched pattern background for the full on assault we are seeing in our atlantic sector of the NH. Far too much deeply cold air stateside pouring out of the Canadian arctic and fuelling temperature gradient ignited secondary depressions along the polar front jet and subsequently driven by the very strong jet stream towards the UK.

 

Sums up the model output completely with no need for further charts. They look bad enough without having to keep looking at them anymore than necessary. Understatement I know, but the coming week must be the biggest dismay and anguish for those who are flooded out, and some who have been flooded out with no respite since the festive season and the damaging storms seen back then

 

There is no easy way out of this pattern. Stratospheric indicators do us no favours and unfortunately continue set to reinforce and sustain the Canadian vortex sector, so that stateside continue to benefit from continued wave activity warming, whilst we suffer from the downstream consequences of how that cold air interacts with a large ocean of relatively warm water and driven on by formidable jet streaks.

 

@mountain shadow - I was talking about the Pacific jetstream within the context of the current/forecasted pattern and how it affects us downstream - the overall pattern comprising other factors doesn't favour anything cold at this time

Edited February 1, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Man With Beard]

ECM tonight, Wednesday to Sunday probably still as rainy as GFS (i.e. a lot) but perhaps not as windy - which would be a help at the moment.

Interestingly, the ECM sends Friday's low south as well, but whereas GFS had uppers close to -5C, ECM has uppers above 0C! Far too far away to be thinking about snow potential though, perhaps look again on Tuesday - by which time we might have a better idea of whether we're getting gale force or storm force winds, too.

[gottolovethisweather]

It'll be a case of gottohatethisweather now won't it gottolovethisweather.....

 

Just like you, Purga, a coldie at heart but there is nothing long lasting bar occasional blips in the overall average Temperature setup to be had in the coming days and perhaps weeks. More notable of course, the focus is on the flooding, rain and wind, coastal erosion, irreparable damage to our habitats and the livelihoods within them and same goes for a lot of the wildlife. Then again, its all the fun of living in this changing world of ours with regard to its current climate, guessing what's coming next is also part of the fun I imagine. Whatever, I still have got to love this weather, especially considering I am largely unaffected by it, Thankfully.

Edited February 1, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Gibby]

Good evening everyone. Here is the evening report on the midday outputs from the NWP for today Saturday February 1st 2014 and taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models show a continuation of the very unsettled period, lasting throughout next week with Monday and Wednesday the main days of concern as active troughs linked to Atlantic depressions bring copious rainfall once more to those areas that least need it. Wednesday provides the additional risk of severe gales. In between the main rain bands there will be Westerly winds and showers. Temperatures will recover to average values by the end of next week.

 

GFS shows the weather remaining unsettled through the remainder of the run with further rain and blustery winds and just short drier and more showery spells in between. Temperatures will remain close to average in the North while the South becomes somewhat milder.

 

The GFS Ensembles show little change tonight with further large amounts of wind and rain populating the UK through the next week or two. Winds look like staying strong too at times with a Westerly element throughout. Temperatures look likely that they will be on the rise somewhat as time passes.

 

UKMO is maintaining it's stance of WSW winds later next week with troughs crossing East at times with rain at times in average temperatures.

 

GEM shows a very windy end to next week and weekend with further bands of showers and rain transferring East over the UK in average temperatures on regular occasions.

 

NAVGEM shows a series of depressions running East over the UK later next week and the weekend with spells of rain and showers passing over at times in average temperatures.

 

ECM is a little less dramatic tonight thankfully though nonetheless still shows a lot of powerful depressions delivering copious rain amounts before we get to a windy and milder period late in the run as warm winds are sucked up from the SW with a continued feed of rain and drizzle especially near Southern and western coasts and hills.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts are not that supportive of it's operational at Days 9 and 10 as it maintains the approach it has shown for the last few days of a bias from it's members of Low pressure likely to be to the North and NW with a SW flow maintained over the UK in pressure likely to be quite low at 1005mbs to 990mbs South to North, very adequate to support fairly appreciable amounts of rain from fronts travelling NE across the UK in average temperatures at worst.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The Jet Stream shows the West to East flow to the South of the UK maintained over the period drifting slowly North later in the run.

 

In Summary tonight the pattern remains very volatile throughout the reliable period of the output tonight. There will be regular occurrences of wind and rain on most days with the winds very strong at times as well as the rain. There is a slight lifting of the gloom at the very end of the ECM operational tonight with a strong shift North of the Jet Flow carrying the depressions further North too. Whether this becomes a trend or just a glitch will be borne out in subsequent runs but the one positive would be temperatures look like rising somewhat, especially in the South later.

[Eastwoods]

While it is quiet in here I will chance my first post. I would just like to thank all the posters in here for their contributions to this thread during what has been a fascinating winter weatherwise albeit poor for cold/snow, the instructive commentary of the models by yourselves has been excellent,informative,useful and humourous. For the professionals amongst you a special thanks as that extra insight from the products not available to most is invaluable plus my scrabble scores have increased no end(snowballz).

I do still hope that the weather is not as severe as progged for those areas already struggling with flooding and that maybe we can get a more settled looking output from the models over the next couple of weeks, perhaps even a "WTF" moment from IB,anyway thanks again and back to lurking!!!