Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[nick sussex]

Shame we couldn't pay the Sopranos to finish off that Canadian PV! never has a synoptic so outstayed its welcome, without its energy boost from Siberia the later output of the ECM could have looked a lot better, as it is we get a decent T120 and T144hrs chart with pressure rising near Svalbard but then reinforcements arrive over Canada, shame, just another window of opportunity closed yet again!

[Mucka]

Certainly no sign of getting any real cold air over the UK after our brief cool spell but perhaps just the smallest chink of light at the end of a very long and dark tunnel?

Going off tonight's output it appears our block is going to be more stubborn than the models predicted and while there is little to zero chance of enough Westward correction to get any cold air from the East it may help get a trough dig a little further West than anticipated which would at least give a little amplification to the pattern.

So what?

Yeah good question.

Well the further West we can shift things the deeper the trough is likely to be and so the more amplified the pattern (so my theory goes) and the more likely we are to eventually get some energy pushing SE. Of course this may just prolong the breakdown of the block which I am ready to say good riddance to but if it going to be stubborn and hang around then we may as well try and find a use for it and let's face it we are at the point of clutching the very finest of straws at the moment (or at least I am) and so this is my attempt. Even if it happens we are still looking at 10 days+ for any worthwhile pattern to start developing but given the only other thing to look for in the MO is how strong the wind will be or how wet it will be on any given day, why not indulge?

Edited January 29, 2014 by Mucka

[Purga]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012912/ECH1-168.GIF?29-0

 

HUM..........................

 

S

You like bowling ball lows? The secondary Low is going to Knacker us.

Edited January 29, 2014 by Purga

[Captain Shortwave]

Well some better blocking on the ECM tonight, but with the conclusion that has summed up the entire winter

Central/Eastern USA goes into the freezer.... AGAIN!!!!

To see a reasonably good Arctic profile but to also have the constant amorphous blob over Canada/Greenland. Such a frustrating winter.

T216 - ECM stop being a model whore 

Edited January 29, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[bluearmy]

Shame we couldn't pay the Sopranos to finish off that Canadian PV! never has a synoptic so outstayed its welcome, without its energy boost from Siberia the later output of the ECM could have looked a lot better, as it is we get a decent T120 and T144hrs chart with pressure rising near Svalbard but then reinforcements arrive over Canada, shame, just another window of opportunity closed yet again!

 

i think that gulf system at day 8 approaching the canadian vortex is going to skew the last few frames of this run nick. look at the thermal gradient !!!!

You like bowling ball lows?

 

he likes cut off scandi highs purga. he likes the systems digging further se within the more reliable timeframe.  straws to clutch but at least we have some straws from the ecm 12z op .....

[skadi]

Yes but a lot of energy is transferring to the Canadian side of the Purple Blob, this cannot be the basis of anything good on our side imho.

 t+192:

Edited January 29, 2014 by skadi

[Cloud 10]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012912/ECH1-168.GIF?29-0

 

HUM..........................

 

S

 

 

ecm op making interesting patterns to our ne at day 7 re advecting some cold back into europe. given that each run is trending to dig the subsequent mid range trough further se before it all heads northeast, there may be some interest out there but we are a fair way from anything concrete just yet.

 

Sorry gents,no more scandi-high chasing. 

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012912/ECH1-216.GIF?29-0

 

ECM

 

[Mucka]

ECM Trolling          

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012912/ECH1-216.GIF?29-0

 

ECM

 

troll.jpg

 

 

LOL exactly the same post!

[nick sussex]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012912/ECH1-216.GIF?29-0

 

ECM

 

troll.jpg

No moooore, I can't cope! Steve a question I can't remember now, but does the ECM include strat info to a higher level than the GFS, I know the ensembles do versus the GEFS but in terms of the ECM operational run?

 

Would that explain this output then?

[bluearmy]

interesting and unlikely but again, the seeds are sown quite early on with the WAA from the 'digging' systems. i would ignore days 9 and 10 to our west until we see that gulf runner repeat. however, the low headign under the block over here at day 9 - thats a different matter and the mere fact that an op throws out an evolution like this is of some value.

[cooling climate]

 

The problem with the strat developments cc is as follows:  the heights (rather than the temps) show the upper strat vortex being stretched from canada to siberia once the split has gone post day 10. thats not a bad thing except we see energy being exchanged between the two areas within a single elongated vortex. no split and experience of these exchanges in vortex centre tends to be reflected in a strong atlantic jet as the low heights move back and forth. the only possible positive i can currently see for coldies is that the jet is sinking further south and it is feasible that the trop vortex could be suppressed by the aleutian block to lay canada/s greenland/n scandi and introduce even colder zonality with secondary features running w to e, giving possible surprises on their nothern flank. i know that heights are predicted to rise over se europe which may not be a disaster in the above scenario as long as the 'runners' turn ne after tehy have passed the meridian. just cant see anything else over the next forntnight fo those chasing the white stuff over lowland britain.

I do not see a problem with the strat developments despite the energy transfering over.The vortex is being stretched,elongated and weakened with stronger warming over ourside of the pole which should allow for better heights. As long as we have theamplification we can still have a Scandi high which would be my bet.The charts will look a lot different by the time we get round to the weekend.

[bluearmy]

No moooore, I can't cope! Steve a question I can't remember now, but does the ECM include strat info to a higher level than the GFS, I know the ensembles do versus the GEFS but in terms of the ECM operational run?

 

Would that explain this output then?

 

it has nearly double the horizontal levels through the strat than the gfs op i think nick. i dont think it goes much higher at the top though.

[Summer Sun]

Big change at t216 from this morning on ECM

 

12z

 

 

00z

 

 

tonight's t240 has another big low to our west

 

Edited January 29, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Snow Grain]

No moooore, I can't cope! Steve a question I can't remember now, but does the ECM include strat info to a higher level than the GFS, I know the ensembles do versus the GEFS but in terms of the ECM operational run? Would that explain this output then?

I expect it's just another random tease based on computer modelling that in reality cannot cope with the chaotic weather. My 9 year old daughter could scribble a more accurate output chart with her crayon set!

[Cloud 10]

Grrrrr.... 

 

[nick sussex]

it has nearly double the horizontal levels through the strat than the gfs op i think nick. i dont think it goes much higher at the top though.

So could this be reacting to that warming quicker than the GFS and a reason for the differences, would that make sense?Hopefully NCEP rubbish the GFS over the ne USA in the earlier timeframe, I'll go and see what they have to say.

Edited January 29, 2014 by nick sussex

[Stuie]

Well the ECM is still creating the Alaskan/Pacific high which I touted last night to help promote a pattern change. Again it makes the Atlantic pull West. It really is trying to keep the vortex apart.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z precipitation charts shows some very worrying totals out to mid February

 

 

One crumb of comfort I can see this evening is precipitation towards the end of the ensembles does start and ease off lets see if this continues to show over the coming days

 

[Purga]

No moooore, I can't cope! Steve a question I can't remember now, but does the ECM include strat info to a higher level than the GFS, I know the ensembles do versus the GEFS but in terms of the ECM operational run?

 

Would that explain this output then?

Nick, for God's sake can't you nuke the ECM server I don't think we can stand anymore of this it's tantamount to serious human rights abuse!

NW coldies are a persecuted minority we really are!

 

 

Having said that are the uppers enough?

 

Edited January 29, 2014 by Purga

[Paul White.]

All aboard for one last hurrah on the ECM easterly it's being very naughty at day nine showing us weather hardened winter fanatics charts like that.

[nick sussex]

Over in the USA you'll see some differences with the speed and depth of a shortwave running east at T96hrs, the GFS is flatter upstream and  you can see how that effects its later output.

 

The latest from NCEP Indiana State Forecast is that they prefer a combo of the ECM/UKMO

 

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...ISSUED AT 159 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014FOR EXACT VALUES...DONT THINK I CAN OUTFORECAST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.MAIN ISSUE UNCERTAINTY.THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS BEEN DOMINANT IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS LATELYAND IS CLOSE TO THE BRITISH MODEL THIS TIME. THAT WOULD INDICATEIT WILL BE TOO COLD FOR ANYTHING BUT SNOW...AND POPS LOWER THANWHAT GFS WOULD HAVE. THIS IS WHAT I WILL USE.CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. EVERYTHING WILL DEPEND ON EXACT LOCATION OFFRONT ALL MODELS DEVELOP OVER OHIO VALLEY. IF YOU BUY THEGFS...MIXED PRECIPITATION COULD BECOME BIG ISSUE. 

We're getting to last chance saloon time here in terms of seeing something more wintry develop, we don't have weeks to play with so we must not see the GFS verify upstream. Indeed we're at that stage now where we have to hope the ECM has latched onto the latest strat warming and will pull the pattern further west.

 

I think its unavoidable that the Siberian vortex will pop off some emergency supplies to its new friend over Canada, so it really comes down to whether any blocking to the east can withstand that assault.

 

Its just one run and we have seen the ECM overamplify the upstream pattern in its later output over much of the winter but we have to hope its finally got something right because we don't have many options left!

[Mair Snaw]

ECM please stop this torture....every time we get to a point of giving up yet more fantastic charts creep into the output....how much more of this can this thread take?? will Steve Murr finally get his sausage?? will Nick Sussex go back on Snow watch?? will this thread finally get what the majority of posters want?? stay tuned for toys n prams... boom n bust.....come on ECM just be right this time...just once please........

[somersetsnow]

ECM please stop this torture....every time we get to a point of giving up yet more fantastic charts creep into the output....how much more of this can this thread take?? will Steve Murr finally get his sausage?? will Nick Sussex go back on Snow watch?? will this thread finally get what the majority of posters want?? stay tuned for toys n prams... boom n bust.....come on ECM just be right this time...just once please........

Fantastic post,sums this Winter up in One

[Ali1977]

Be interesting to see if any ECM ens are showing anything remotely cold tonight. Any chance or signs of cold potential Ian F???