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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 21/01/14


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bloomin' great hail storm as I passed through March around 4pm - enough hail to coat the roads and pavements sending pedestrians under cover. 

 

One flash of lightning in the fields on the way out. Mrs Legrandefromage reported the same thing over Alconbury - her hail on the conservatory roof beat my hail on the windscreen for noise.

Haha one of those was my mother she told me she hid in the charity shop, but still got very wet.And she saw the lightning.

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Here we go!

 

**** Rain Weather, **** Wind, **** Floods, **** Mud Everywhere, ***** worst winter for many years!

 

And that's the weekend, Next week, Cold.....Frost....ice........SNOW...Posted Image

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Evening John.  Couple of questions - I suspect from our location that your local BBC news is South-East?  On Look East tonight, the forecast for tomorrow evening's rain was light and patchy - you're going for moderate with heavy bursts - any views on reasons for the difference?  Second, over on the MOD thread there is the following post from Ian F:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79144-model-output-discussion-19th-january-2014-18z-onwards/?p=2904642

 

Would you concur with the Met Office as referenced by Ian?

 

hi chris

 

i tend to run with the fronts how quick they move

 

now these are updated at just gone 5pm

 

now they may be using the earlier fax charts

 

that had the front moving through quicker

 

also we have a situation where warmer uppers cross

 

at the same time as a cold and warm front does

 

this would lead me to think that we will have some heavier in the mix

 

hopefully i will be wrong but maybe look at the later forecasters to see what they say

 

 

re ians update

 

i have an inkling the charts are really only reliable up to around 120-144 max

 

if the block to our north east becomes stubborn you may find the updates changing

 

on a regular basis

 

obviously i wont go against ian

 

but i would not want to go too far out regarding this current set up

 

also chris

 

there is a chance the heavier bursts may be restricted to further south than you

 

anyway lets see what the later updates show

Edited by john pike
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hi chris

 

i tend to run with the fronts how quick they move

 

now these are updated at just gone 5pm

 

now they may be using the earlier fax charts

 

that had the front moving through quicker

 

also we have a situation where warmer uppers cross

 

at the same time as a cold and warm front does

 

this would lead me to think that we will have some heavier in the mix

 

hopefully i will be wrong but maybe look at the later forecasters to see what they say

 

 

re ians update

 

i have an inkling the charts are really only reliable up to around 120-144 max

 

if the block to our north east becomes stubborn you may find the updates changing

 

on a regular basis

 

obviously i wont go against ian

 

but i would not want to go too far out regarding this current set up

 

Cheers John.  Interestingly, the forecast agreed with you in terms of time of arrival and speed of movement.

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The fact of the matter is we are entering the coldest period of winter so far, where we go

from here could possibly determine the remainder of winter.

 

Interesting couple of days coming up to see what direction we are taken on.

 

Shotski

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hi chris

 

see the fax chart here

 

Posted Image

 

see where the warm and cold front join

 

i see where that sits will be likely to see the heavier rain

 

anyway i hope their right and not me this time

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best ecm ens charts yet this winter ..................  a rogue run or are we staring at proper winter ??

 

 

All I can say BA, Is if you have popped in and posted......A proper Winter it is then.Posted Image

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 Hi all the weather watch forecast just shown on the Beeb for the next 3 weeks was quite unremarkable not a sniff of any cold to note ,, not sure why the coldaphillacs on the model thread are so hyped .. think they should all quit, get a life and leave it to the pretty good and British met office…..

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Posted Image

 

Well I was not expecting that when I went out to put the rubbish in the bin......Posted Image

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I can't lie to you all, Your all to nice. Its from the Netherlands...http://t.co/JPKgIeIvmY

Edited by Jason T
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Yes i agree there Martyn. Teenage boys are REALLY Kevins. My son is 19 now and is just emerging from the dark side thankfully. My daughter is now 27, but she just adjusted and got on with it.

 

Happy birthday to your daughter

Thanks Jan, always good to hear from those who have emerged blinking into the sunlight

 

Chartlonkerry, thank you so much for your long and evocative post earlier about 63.  2 years before I was born but I remember my parents and their parents talking all about it and being shown pictures of my granddad shovelling about a foot of snow away from the drive of their bungalow in, would you believe, Plymouth.  In the photo he looks very much like he is enjoying himself and trying not to show it, but in Plymouth this was probably understandable.  Less so for much of the rest of the country.  Despite my relatively younger years and being in the mostly mild environs of Bristol as a youngster I still remember winters of washing hanging on the line frozen solid, swirly patterns of ice inside the windows sticking to the net curtains and the smell of paraffin as my dad topped up the heaters and lit the night lantern in the outside loo - green door with a latch, lock didn't work that well, always on the edge of the seat (literally) in there.  We also had an inside one though, so clearly we were a bit more bourgeoisie (had to use spell check on that one).  We had a Parkray fire that was supposed to heat the terraced house, not sure how as we didn't have radiators until I was 14, but my parents managed to convince me it was happening, and I still remember the smell  and the dust and drama of the coalmen arriving, the wagon pulling up outside the front door and the men carrying silvery shimmering bags of coal on their shoulders walking through the house on newspaper on the lino, huge boots and treadmarks, out the back door and chucking the contents of these huge sacks into the coalshed, properly noisy, delivering fossilised treasure  Whenever I buy coal these days, not that it is an essential any more, I still stick the bag on my shoulder as a small act of remembrance. Probably explains why I can't stand up straight. 

 

It's funny how hot summers (76 anyone?) don't have quite the same impact on me.  Cold, snow, ice, power cuts, candles, that thing you said about the slide - we did that, in the playground, make a slide on the ice/snow by running at it and skating/sliding as far as you could until falling, the more people went along it the faster and more lethal it became and so the more fun it was.  Don't remember the teachers being out there first thing stopping us, they were probably having a fag somewhere. 

 

2 things I can confess that, like CK the other day, I haven't told anyone: (1) when I was 14 we had to put down what we wanted to for work experience and I put 'weatherman' (didn't happen); (2) when I was 12 I used to read the weather chart in the paper in the morning (one of those old ones with isobars) and then write up a forecast which I sold to people in school for 2p for one day and 3p for 2 days.  I didn't make much.

 

AS

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i did it earlier in the month and 'pop', the easterly was gone next day !!!!!

Your post earlier said you would be surprised if the chilterns haven't seen snow by end of next week. You reckon there is a good chance there could be some snow even for us lot? I reckon given today's output prob 55%
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Thanks Jan, always good to hear from those who have emerged blinking into the sunlight Chartlonkerry, thank you so much for your long and evocative post earlier about 63.  2 years before I was born but I remember my parents and their parents talking all about it and being shown pictures of my granddad shovelling about a foot of snow away from the drive of their bungalow in, would you believe, Plymouth.  In the photo he looks very much like he is enjoying himself and trying not to show it, but in Plymouth this was probably understandable.  Less so for much of the rest of the country.  Despite my relatively younger years and being in the mostly mild environs of Bristol as a youngster I still remember winters of washing hanging on the line frozen solid, swirly patterns of ice inside the windows sticking to the net curtains and the smell of paraffin as my dad topped up the heaters and lit the night lantern in the outside loo - green door with a latch, lock didn't work that well, always on the edge of the seat (literally) in there.  We also had an inside one though, so clearly we were a bit more bourgeoisie (had to use spell check on that one).  We had a Parkray fire that was supposed to heat the terraced house, not sure how as we didn't have radiators until I was 14, but my parents managed to convince me it was happening, and I still remember the smell  and the dust and drama of the coalmen arriving, the wagon pulling up outside the front door and the men carrying silvery shimmering bags of coal on their shoulders walking through the house on newspaper on the lino, huge boots and treadmarks, out the back door and chucking the contents of these huge sacks into the coalshed, properly noisy, delivering fossilised treasure  Whenever I buy coal these days, not that it is an essential any more, I still stick the bag on my shoulder as a small act of remembrance. Probably explains why I can't stand up straight.  It's funny how hot summers (76 anyone?) don't have quite the same impact on me.  Cold, snow, ice, power cuts, candles, that thing you said about the slide - we did that, in the playground, make a slide on the ice/snow by running at it and skating/sliding as far as you could until falling, the more people went along it the faster and more lethal it became and so the more fun it was.  Don't remember the teachers being out there first thing stopping us, they were probably having a fag somewhere.  2 things I can confess that, like CK the other day, I haven't told anyone: (1) when I was 14 we had to put down what we wanted to for work experience and I put 'weatherman' (didn't happen); (2) when I was 12 I used to read the weather chart in the paper in the morning (one of those old ones with isobars) and then write up a forecast which I sold to people in school for 2p for one day and 3p for 2 days.  I didn't make much. AS

hahaha! The last bit gave me a right giggle. I had visions of a Grange Hill stylie, round the back of the bike shed (it was the back of the gym at the girls school I went to!) you ran the gauntlet of "you wanna buy a fag, there 10p" or some bugger selling a poor bullied sods lunch....nah, I'm saving my money to buy the weather forecast from AS LOL !! Priceless !
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hahaha! The last bit gave me a right giggle. I had visions of a Grange Hill stylie, round the back of the bike shed (it was the back of the gym at the girls school I went to!) you ran the gauntlet of "you wanna buy a fag, there 10p" or some bugger selling a poor bullied sods lunch....nah, I'm saving my money to buy the weather forecast from AS LOL !! Priceless !

Thanks A - sounds like you were there! 

 

AS

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heres the fax update

 

 

monday

 

Posted Image

a cold north west to west flow

 

temps

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

around 5 degrees

 

however when showers arrive temps could drop a good couple of degrees

 

trough to our west could see some heavy showers late pm

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tuesday

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

i want to say something here

 

but i will wait for tomorrow

 

sorry guys Posted Image

Edited by john pike
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