February 2014 CET Forecasts

[Summer Sun]

6.2c to the 25th

 

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average

[reef]

6.3C to the 26th with yesterday coming in at 6.8C:

 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

It'll be interesting to see what the adjustment is this month as in January it was exactly zero.

[Summer Sun]

The mild temperatures means the UK is on target for its fifth warmest winter since records began in 1910.

 

The average temperature over the past three months was 5.2C (41.4F), about 1.5C higher than the typical winter.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26367160

Edited February 27, 2014 by Summer Sun

[BornFromTheVoid]

With a minimum of 5.1C and maxima likely to reach the low 9s, we should see a daily mean of around 7.2C leaving us on 6.3C on tomorrows update.

 

The final day of the month, according to the 06z GFS, looks like being around 4.7C, leaving us on 6.2C to the 28th.

 

We're almost guaranteed a winter CET of between 5.9 and 6.1C, so the joint 9th to joint 12th mildest on record.

[reef]

Also worth mentioning is that at the moment we're at 6.09C mean for the winter in CET land. That would make it the 12th mildest winter in the 355 years the CET record has been going.

 

The only milder ones are: 

 

6.77C: 1868/69

6.53C: 1833/34

6.50C: 1988/89

6.43C: 2006/07

6.43C: 1974/75

6.33C: 1685/86

6.23C: 1989/90

6.20C: 1795/96

6.13C: 1934/35

6.10C: 1997/98

6.10C: 1733/34

 

Definitely one of 'those' winters. 

[virtualsphere]

6.53C: 1833/346.13C: 1934/356.10C: 1733/34 Definitely one of 'those' winters.

Not looking forward to 2034 then...

[March Blizzard]

Also worth mentioning is that at the moment we're at 6.09C mean for the winter in CET land. That would make it the 12th mildest winter in the 355 years the CET record has been going. The only milder ones are:  6.77C: 1868/696.53C: 1833/346.50C: 1988/896.43C: 2006/076.43C: 1974/756.33C: 1685/866.23C: 1989/906.20C: 1795/966.13C: 1934/356.10C: 1997/986.10C: 1733/34 Definitely one of 'those' winters.

The scary thought is we could get a winter, temperature wise, similar to this next time; evidenced by the fact we had two stinkers on the trot in 88/89 and 89/90.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Not looking forward to 2034 then...

The late 2080s don't look good either based on that horrible little lot...

Edited February 27, 2014 by Craig Evans

[Don]

The scary thought is we could get a winter, temperature wise, similar to this next time; evidenced by the fact we had two stinkers on the trot in 88/89 and 89/90.

 

Mild Winters often come in clusters like cold Winters, so I think there's a fair chance that 2014/15 will be another mild one unfortunately.

[Weather-history]

The scary thought is we could get a winter, temperature wise, similar to this next time; evidenced by the fact we had two stinkers on the trot in 88/89 and 89/90.

We could get a similiar temperature but it could be far wintrier than this one. It hasn't been the mildest but it has been the least wintriest winter I have experienced here. It shows that temperature although plays a part, it is not the be all end all.

[Summer Sun]

6.3c to the 27th

 

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield will finish on 5.6C making the mildest winter since 2007. I cheated I had a peep at today's max.

[BornFromTheVoid]

February confirmed as 6.2C, so congrats to Summer of 95.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2014

 

That makes this winter the 12th mildest on record at 6.07C. (Cheers reef)

Edited March 1, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[reef]

February confirmed as 6.2C, so congrats to Summer of 95.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2014

 

That makes this winter the joint 9th mildest on record at 6.1C.

 

The MetOffice rank to two dp, so its actually 12th mildest at 6.07C:

 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean_sort.txt

 

No less dreadful from a cold point of view though!

[BornFromTheVoid]

A few quick stats.

 

Here's the February 2014 data with historical averages and extremes

 

 

Below is the same but for the entire winter

 

 

The entire winter saw just 2 days below the average of the entire data set, and just 5 days below the 61-90 average.

 

 

The lowest daily mean temperature for winter was the highest on record at 3.0C (January 30th). On only 17 other occassions since 1772 has the lowest daily mean been above 0C, and none of these were above 2.0C, with the next highest being 1975 at +1.7C.

 

 

The range between the lowest and highest daily mean CET was the lowest on record, since 1772, with a value of 6.3C (min 3.0C, max 9.3C Dec 13th). There have been just 10 other years with a range of less than 10C, but none of these were lower than 8.5C, with the next lowest being 1859 at 8.5C

 

Edited March 1, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[J10]

In addition to Summer of 95 getting it spot on.

 

3 others were 0.1c out Summer Sun,  reef and  A Winter's Tale

 

Full details to appear fairly shortly.

 

XLS Feb 2014 CET.xls

 

PDF Feb 2014 CET.pdf

 

Seasonal Winner Reef, with the PIT in 2nd and Summer Sun (Gavin) in 3rd.

 

Overall the same top 3. Reef (1), the PIT (2) and Summer Sun (3)
 

Edited March 1, 2014 by J10

[Don]

February confirmed as 6.2C, so congrats to Summer of 95.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2014

 

That makes this winter the 12th mildest on record at 6.07C. (Cheers reef)

 

Well, 0.6C out this time.  Closest I've been for quite a while mind.  So that's it, an entire Winter without seeing a single flake of snow.  At least Winter 2014/15 cannot be any worse from a snowy perspective, even if it is another mild one.

[North-Easterly Blast]

We could get a similiar temperature but it could be far wintrier than this one. It hasn't been the mildest but it has been the least wintriest winter I have experienced here.It shows that temperature although plays a part, it is not the be all end all.

Yes that's true about something like 2006-07 - that winter although slightly milder than 2013-14, actually contained a couple of short wintry episodes from around 21st - 24th Jan and 5th - 10th Feb, and some cold frosty days in December, so winter 2006-07 delivered more of a wintry flavour to most parts of the country than 2013-14.  Winter 1988-89 however saw little frosts and really cold days and was devoid of snow for most parts of the country.  After early December winter 1989-90 was devoid of anything wintry for most parts of the country.  In both 88-89 and 89-90 many parts of the country were snowless, with only favoured areas seeing slight falls, and even then it was no more than very short lived slight coverings.  In the winters than had CETs of 6.0*C+, really only winter 2006-07 stands out as delivering any short wintry snaps countrywide.  So bar 2006-07 I would say that pretty much all the 6.0+ CET winters were real stinkers, and were as poor or at least very nearly as poor as 2013-14.  In reality winter 2007-08, although 0.8*C less mild than 2006-07, didn't bring any more of a wintry flavour for most of the country than 2006-07 did.

 

Another statistic from a snow perspective I believe that winter 1991-92 passed by without a flake of snow falling in most parts of the country.  Any cold frosty weather that winter was from mid-latitude Rex blocks which created a surface cold, and in that whole winter no northerly or easterly outbreak developed with deep cold Arctic air covering the country.

[March Blizzard]

0.8C out for me, to be honest I wasn't expecting to be less than 1C out when I went for 7C! Nonetheless, it's still my best effort so far this season  .

 

It moves me up a massive 12 places...from 49th to 37th.

 

My title defence is looking very shaky already, I'm doing a Man U!

[Summer of 95]

February confirmed as 6.2C, so congrats to Summer of 95.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2014

 

That makes this winter the 12th mildest on record at 6.07C. (Cheers reef)

 

Bloody hell... 25 quid on the lottery last night and now this