February 2014 CET Forecasts

[DAVID SNOW]

I'd caution you against trusting the GFS in FI.

 

In addition the mean trough could theoretically retrogress allowing a more southerly flow as below..

 

Did I mention the gfs?

[Summer Sun]

5.6c to the 5th

 

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

5.8c to the 6th

 

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average

[Weather-history]

Another February goes by without being notably cold, assuming the models don't suddenly flip during the second half.

Last one was 1991, I feel the statistical elastic band is stretching on this one. We saw last year, after the domination of mild Marches of the last 25 years, a really cold March popped up.

Feel only a matter of time, it'll happen for February.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Another February goes by without being notably cold, assuming the models don't suddenly flip during the second half.Last one was 1991, I feel the statistical elastic band is stretching on this one. We saw last year, after the domination of mild Marches of the last 25 years, a really cold March popped up.Feel only a matter of time, it'll happen for February.

Yes, although very recently we have experienced the second coldest December on record, and around the 11th coldest March on record, there has not been a February significantly cold, since 1991.  I have to say that really cold Februarys tend to come after much colder Januarys (ie 1979, 1917, 1942 etc).  The only significantly cold Februarys that have followed milder Januarys were in 1969 and 1983.  Although on top of that, the sub zero February in 1986 came after a January that was almost around average - another large cool down there.  Further back there were also examples of cold Februarys after much milder Januarys in 1873 and 1853.

 

In actual fact, although March was very mild overall from 1988 to 2012, in the period from 1970 to 1987 there wern't actually any notably cold Marches, just a few that saw CETs in the 4's, which is rather cold for March but not significantly so.  Last year was the first really cold March in 40 odd years.

 

Another example is that there has not been a notably cold April since 1989, there hasn't been a notably cool September since 1993/94, there hasn't been a really cool July or August since 1988 and 1993 respectively.

[BornFromTheVoid]

5.8C to the 7th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2014

 

With a minimum today of 4.3C and maxima around 7.5C, the CET should remain on 5.8C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at

5.8C to the 9th (5.8]

5.7C to the 10th (4.2)

5.4C to the 11th (2.9)

5.2C to the 12th (2.4)

5.3C to the 13th (6.3)

5.3C to the 14th (5.7)

5.3C to the 15th (5.8]

[Summer Sun]

5.8C to the 7th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2014

 

Think they've forgot to update the home page today as its still on the 6th

[BornFromTheVoid]

Think they've forgot to update the home page today as its still on the 6th

 

The data, which you can see in the link, is updated to the 7th though.

[NeilN]

Wasn't July 2007 a cool July? and 2012 the coolest June for a while?

[Lettucing Gutted]

Wasn't July 2007 a cool July? and 2012 the coolest June for a while?

Compared to all recent 30 year averages July 2007 and June 2012 were on the cool side but certainly not notably so.

[BornFromTheVoid]

June 2012 was the coolest since 1991, and July 2007 the coolest since 1993.

[Weather-history]

What has happened to Philip Eden's site?

http://www.climate-uk.com

Not updated since end of November, I hope he is OK.

[Summer Sun]

What has happened to Philip Eden's site?http://www.climate-uk.comNot updated since end of November, I hope he is OK.

 

Still updating here: http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html

[damianslaw]

A chilly outlook should see the CET fall over the coming days with cooler nightime minima which has been the sticking point all winter. Indeed maxima in the north of England has been very near average so far this month but minima has prevented any particularly cool mean temperatures.

 

Indeed the 5.9 degree CET value matches the average maxima so far this month in much of the far north of England (Cumbria and NE England)- alas there is no CET station here. The bias of CET stations to the central and se portion of the country often results in a CET not very reflective of much of the northern part of the country - include a station here or in the NE and you'd see much cooler CET values on average.

 

Anyhow there is a strong chance the CET will end up at least below 5 degrees, and certainly a good chance of coming in or even below the 4 degree mark. Will wait and see.

[Summer Sun]

5.9c to the 9th  

 

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

5.6c to the 10th

 

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

5.4c to the 11th

 

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

[damianslaw]

Quite a significant drop in the space of 2 days of 0.5 degrees. Coming days will probably see a continued drop, so we should be in the 4's before not too long..

 

Conditions in the north however, remain preety chilly for foreseeable future with maxima between 3-6 degrees and minima close to freezing. We only reached 4 degrees today and that is under a westerly - these westerlies are much colder than in a normal year, bringing sub 528 dam air and deep embedded polar air - its hardly a mild zonal set up.

[Summer Sun]

No change today

 

5.4c to the 12th

 

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

5.3c to the 13th

 

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

No update yesterday but we've risen to 5.4c to the 15th which is 1.6c above the 61 to 90 average

[summer blizzard]

I may be on the mild side at 5.4C but it looks like the angle of the jet will prevent anything other than an above average month.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 4.6C suppressed day time temps offset by higher overnight temperatures. Quite a difference so I wouldn't be surprised at a big downward adjustment at the month end. 

[Summer Sun]

5.4c to the 16th

 

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

MIn today of 3.2C while maxima looked like they were around the mid 9s, so an increase to 5.5C is likely tomorrow.

 

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

5.6C to the 18th (8.2)

5.7C to the 19th (6.9)

5.9C to the 20th (8.7)

5.8C to the 21st (4.9)

5.8C to the 22nd (5.6)

5.9C to the 23rd (7.4)

5.9C to the 24th (6.5)

 

 

Having a look through the CET stats for winter so far, the current range between the highest daily mean CET and the lowest daily mean CET is the lowest on record (back to 1772) at just 6.3C (9.3C high, 3.0C low), which shows how monotonous the temperatures have been this winter. The next closest year is 1859, with a range of 8.5C. So to equal 1859 we need to record a daily mean CET of either 11.5C or 0.8C (or both a new high and low) before the end of the month, both of which appear unlikely.

 

Here's how the range compares so far.