Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[The Eagle]

Apart from it looking vary different at 120, so I wouldn't call it rock solid, but either outcome is just as likely to happen, but I would give the the edge to UK, JMA as they have been the most consistent these last few days.

 

 

Disagree. But we might be a little bit wiser after the 12z's. 

[IDO]

Lots of cold coming from the Canadian vortex,  Saturday:  

 

The west is best for next weekend.

[UV-RAY]

Still an awful lot to be decided on from midweek onwards, what worries  me is how the ECM has been way to progressive with heights to our East over the last month or so,  but is now the least progressive of the models. Wouldn't it be just sods law if it's calling this one correct now.

[swfc]

What i would say that a huge jump on the 6z from the 0z on the temp profile and nh outlook.Massive loss of pressure to the far north east as well.That said the diff between ecm ,gfs and the ukmo are startling !!!

[snowbob]

Lots of cold coming from the Canadian vortex,  Saturday:  gfs-1-168.png

 

The west is best for next weekend.

glad it's the 6z gfs then

[IDO]

GFS certainly showing a return to the westerly regimes as pinpointed by the UKMO longer range thoughts:

 

T180: 

 

Feeling cold: 

Edited January 25, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[pdiddy]

For Friday 7pm the 06z run uppers:  gfs-1-156.png  the 0z uppers: gfs-1-162.png

Just a 10 degree difference in the 850s then?  No one should be trustng the GFS output until it aligns run to run (forgetting for a moment whether it bears any resemblence to UKMO)

[TEITS]

So the 06Z has low pressure of 960mb to the N of Scotland, whereas the 0Z has SLP at 1005 mb. No wonder the GFS recieves a slating on this forum especially the 06Z run.

 

I am slightly nervous how its the JMA/GEM that support the UKMO. I know the Met O hold the JMA in high regard but in my experience I have found the model to be poor. Like I said earlier we should adopt the attitude that maybe all the models are wrong and something inbetween is more likely.

[Long haul to mild]

GFS certainly showing a return to the westerly regimes as pinpointed by the UKMO longer range thoughts:

 

T180: gfs-0-180 (1).png

Absolutely yawn inducing from the GFS. It does this every time in a blocking setup. I am going to save that chart and repost it next week to show how wrong it will no doubt be!

[Liam J]

It's not often you see a westerly that cold being modelled! -5 to -7c uppers - Long way out yet though, blustery wintry showers with snow accumulating at elevation.

 

Edited January 25, 2014 by Liam J

[snowbob]

6z gfs is always laughable

Love all the posts which show what's gonna happen

Especially going against the ukmo 0z

Know what I would put faith in

Not worried at all yet

At least until the 12z

[Jason M]

Absolutely yawn inducing from the GFS. It does this every time in a blocking setup. I am going to save that chart and repost it next week to show how wrong it will no doubt be!

In fairness METO hinted at interest for this week and from memory GFS never wanted to know. I'd rather meto be on side than GFS but its not the worst model by a long way especially as we can see the full ensemble suite to use in conjunction with the opp. The 00Z ensemble suite was solidly behind the opp.

I don't know which model is right, but I think it wrong to just dismiss a run.

[Long haul to mild]

In fairness METO hinted at interest for this week and from memory GFS never wanted to know. I'd rather meto be on side than GFS but its not the worst model by a long way especially as we can see the full ensemble suite to use in conjunction with the opp. The 00Z ensemble suite was solidly behind the opp.I don't know which model is right, but I think it wrong to just dismiss a run.

I know I sound like a stuck record but it does this every time in these setups and I frankly don't believe it. The 06z is usually the worst of the lot at it, I know Steve M always dismisses it.Just my opinion of course

[snowbob]

I know I sound like a stuck record but it does this every time in these setups and I frankly don't believe it. The 06z is usually the worst of the lot at it, I know Steve M always dismisses it.Just my opinion of course

Totally agreeThink it's rated 6th in verification stats

[Liam J]

Whichever way you look it next week is looking cold whether it be an easterly or a westerly flow, now all we need is the models to agree on the correct evolution!! What a mess folks... Huge forecasting nightmare continues. 

[IDO]

I know I sound like a stuck record but it does this every time in these setups and I frankly don't believe it. The 06z is usually the worst of the lot at it, I know Steve M always dismisses it.

Just my opinion of course

 

 

Yes just to highlight that early Spring in FI: 

[Southern Storm]

Disagree. But we might be a little bit wiser after the 12z's.

 Don't put you house on it! 

 

To me it seems the GFS, and the ECM have been spending to much time in Woolworths (pick & mix) 

 

throwing out all sorts of garbage, but that's just my opinion 

 

no doubt that the ECM is a great model, but it has been off the ball the last few days.

[Long haul to mild]

Yes just to highlight that early Spring in FI:

Ugh, I'd end up cutting the grass in mid Feb at that rate; it was bad enough that I was still mowing it in November!However, I would like to see those kind of synoptics come April and May!

[karlos1983]

In fairness METO hinted at interest for this week and from memory GFS never wanted to know. I'd rather meto be on side than GFS but its not the worst model by a long way especially as we can see the full ensemble suite to use in conjunction with the opp. The 00Z ensemble suite was solidly behind the opp.

I don't know which model is right, but I think it wrong to just dismiss a run.

 

I think it's fair to say that the GFS can't be that bad, after all, the majority of members(imo) on here still view it with every run after the UKMO/ECM, and the JMA wouldn't be getting a look in if it wasn't showing cold arriving next week.

 

It get's it's bad name from these blocking scenarios where it is historically bad, but in a run of the mill zonal flow, it's pretty good if you take the 00z and 12z runs. Especially this winter.

 

I really can't see this not being sorted one way or t'other this evening or certainly more agreement, as the key issues are in what should really be the reliable time frame now.

 

should we dismiss this?

 

Edited January 25, 2014 by karlos1983

[weather eater]

In my opinion all the models struggle with blocking, not only do they struggle with how hard they are to shift they also struggle with placement as well, I still think this is a knife edge situation and still 60/40 in favour of a more westerly regime, hopefully things will be a bit clearer come this evening and either the GFS or ECM, will have come on board with the UKMO, or even better both.

[mountain shadow]

In all my years in here, I don't think I have ever seen the UKMO wrong at T+96, so I'm confident that we will see the Easterly. Ithas also handled the evolution rock solidly to where we are now and the ECM seems to be performing less well since its upgrade.

It's a pity we no long see the verification stats for our part of the hemisphere as I'm sure the Ukmet model would be well ahead.

As for the GFS, it's North Atlantic mobile bias continues and should be ignored completely with this type of blocking scenario.

The ECM ensembles will be better guide than the ECM Op.

[Man With Beard]

It must be noted though that the ridging of the Azores High is a growing feature, and the UKMO from this morning is not far from being modified at T144 by the same thing

Edited January 25, 2014 by rjbw

[damianslaw]

A word on ECM, it hasn't been performing particularly well so far this year.. dropping the idea of an easterly earlier this month where it was a strong outlier.. however, verification wise, UKMO has been the best performing model.. no-one should be dismissing it, especially given it remains bullish this morning with its easterly projection, if it still shows such a synoptic this time tomorrow for 72-96 hr timeframe, and the GFS and ECM are not.. then I think this is a strong signal it has picked on something they haven't and at such a timeframe.. it would then be unusual to see it quickly back down - with this in mind we should be much more clearer this time tomorrow how things will pan out mid week. Either the ECM will come round to UKMO or vice versa.. or they meet in the middle (a strong probability).

 

I do wish GFS only had 2 runs a day, less chance for huge margins of error, alas it is the model most prone to error and consequently the least reliable I say.. it has a default button which brings in the atlantic when things remain uncertain.. you know what it is going to show before you even look at it.

[stratty]

It's not often you see a westerly that cold being modelled! -5 to -7c uppers - Long way out yet though, blustery wintry showers with snow accumulating at elevation.

 

gfs-1-174.png

 

......this should join the list of Frosty's charts this winter that never come off!

 

In reality have we ever had westerlies ever come off that cold?

[draztik]

A plausible evolution from the 6z gfs, given the gefs mean post 180! Reinforces the favourable route back to zonality post nxt wk! This winter is incessant, if nothing else!