Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[Southern Storm]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012412/ECU1-168.GIF?24-0Heavy snow approaching from the west borderline for the South & SW ( think M4 )sJMA trumps the UKMOhttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=24&mode=1&nh=1&archive=0New entry @ number 1 with widespread -10 into the UK @ 192.

very good! And before anyone says it's just the JMA, the met office rate it quite well, and it was if I'm not mistaken one of the first models to spot this trendAnd has been very consistent with its output. Edited January 24, 2014 by Thunderman1981

[tight isobar]

right how do you go from this

to this in one frame

this has been flagged recent major unreliable for energy track, gradients and timing. Vortex spread and evolving lps a mass headache. Thus block breakdown or not .and how quickly we get the flow East, and on board.

[snowice]

LET`S BE HONEST JMA AND UKMO HAVE BEEN THE FORM HORSES THE LAST TWO WEEKS?

 

LET THERE BE NO PANIC ECM NOT THAT BAD

[Summer Sun]

Coldest air moving away at t192 on ECM

 

 

The deep low heads south at t216

 

[Gaz1985]

Still a good trend But I do hate it when the forum gets too confident; it’s like a Groundhog Day script. you know how it goes, it’s usually tears at the end. UKMO does look good but I've never trusted its 144hr output, however, on saying that I've also always thought that the ECMs reputation for blocking projections was over blown.

 

Indeed. I'm going to give until Tuesday because let's face it charts a week away probably won't verify as shown. It may all end in tears and more toys thrown. Or not.

 

I think a few more days then we can say the cold is definitely coming, but the one positive thing for coldies is the Met Office seem much more bullish now than at any time this Winter. 

 

And that is a snowy chart - February could well dawn very white for most of us away from SW areas.

 

 

[Purga]

ECM @ 216hrs

The Icelandic High...

[The PIT]

Nice ECM tonight would love to see the dew points it thinks we'll get. One of the reasons why the GFS was so sucky. No decent dew points until well into the run.

[bluearmy]

the standard way of comparing the 12z op with the 00z ens and spreads reveals that the dam on the depression is out of the range of the spreads. therefore, because the actual thicknesses are comaprable, the depth of the pressure is likely overdone. if it is a shallower system, it should track further to our sw. 

 

relax until the ens come out and double check for clarity.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Why even think about the 1st of February? Let's just concentrate on the next few days first. After all the models are a huge improvement on the same old wet and windy charts.

[Blake]

Little snowman to our west in that low it's trying to tell us something....

 

[Tim Bland]

I would take a risk with marginality tbh. It's better to have widespread precip and hope it to turns to snow than the usual cold snaps we have which are dry. ECM is marginal but with a flow from the east I wouldn't worry about uppers too much

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Little snowman to our west in that low it's trying to tell us something....

 

 

0z that but looks good

[nick sussex]

Later some okay synoptics from the ECM but because of its earlier trend any deep cold has long since gone ne. Overall a disappointing ECM operational run, it might have looked good compared to whats been dished up so far this winter but compared to some of the other models its like budget fish fingers compared to Dover Sole.

 

I'd advise people to wait till tomorrow before getting at all excited about snow prospects, the ECM is just a couple of more phasing issues away from no slider at T168hrs.

 

We can just hope that its at one extreme the UKMO and JMA at the other and at worse we get a blended solution which would be okay.

Edited January 24, 2014 by nick sussex

[Cloud 10]

the standard way of comparing the 12z op with the 00z ens and spreads reveals that the dam on the depression is out of the range of the spreads. therefore, because the actual thicknesses are comaprable, the depth of the pressure is likely overdone. if it is a shallower system, it should track further to our sw. 

 

relax until the ens come out and double check for clarity.

 

Yep,just a variation on a theme from the ECM when compared with the 00z ens. anomalies

at 168 hrs.

 

12z op run..  00z ens..

[winterof79]

Wll like it or loath it that has DANGER written all over it- Gales, rain, sleet, DEEP snow for the midlands North....http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012412/ECU1-192.GIF?24-0S

When ever you read about the classic winters you will always get a north/south situation that develops when the sliders are involved.Frozen in time comes to mind.

[Kentspur]

-10 uppers moving into the northeast at 180 on jma,, im in donny that day to watch the boro, but looking at the chart the game could be in serious doubt  

And I'm watchin my spurs away at Hull down the road from you:-)

Later some okay synoptics from the ECM but because of its earlier trend any deep cold has long since gone ne. Overall a disappointing ECM operational run, it might have looked good compared to whats been dished up so far this winter but compared to some of the other models its like budget fish fingers compared to Dover Sole.

I always catch Dover sole in the Thames at gravesend every June/July they are not as good as bass mind you lol

[Tamara]

As always little point at all of taking the output at face value, but a fascinating range of operational solutions this evening

 

For me, with a little luck, JMA shows the sort of way forward with trough disruption phase 2 heading towards the more advanced stage  Snow event there for many with quite a surface level pull off the continent and quite cold uppers skirting the east coast

 

 

 

It wouldn't happen exactly like that of course but I think it is the most consistent operational in line with the ECM ensembles from this morning and as per my earlier post could well represent the general way ahead if we are going to get lucky with the cold pattern

 

UKMO probably too progressive with the block ridging, but that is not a bad thing imo, because we want to draw the blood from the blob over Canada first to back it further and further west..then either ideally route 1 from the east or, perhaps, route 2 to cold via amplification in the atlantic to pull the Russian High west can do the rest.

 

Both those options are still on the table at this time

Edited January 24, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[J10]

Ladies and Gentlemen,i do believe the Russians have forgotten to close the freezer door.

 

and so have the Americans.

 

Cold from East and West

[mountain shadow]

If that's a bad ECM I would like to see a good one.

The summation of the model output today is for a battleground of air masses over the UK, where the snow falls is still up for debate, and at the very least temperatures will be below average.

[snowice]

Later some okay synoptics from the ECM but because of its earlier trend any deep cold has long since gone ne. Overall a disappointing ECM operational run, it might have looked good compared to whats been dished up so far this winter but compared to some of the other models its like budget fish fingers compared to Dover Sole.

IN THE MORNING IT COULD BE CAPTAIN BIRDS EYE(UPGRADE)

[shaky]

Basically looks like ecm has lost the plot tonight!!

[Weather-history]

ECM seems to me, bizarre.

At 144hrs, the Atlantic low is barely developed.

At 168hrs, there has been explosive cyclonic development to 965mb

At 192hrs, the low is over Wales, still 965mb

At 216hrs, the low is sinking southwards at 985mb

At 240hrs , the low has filled to 1000mb

So in a space of 96hrs, it goes from virtually nothing to nothing with explosive development and weakening in between. Not including the rapid westward movement, the stall and then the quickening southward plunge.

Very odd!

[nick sussex]

A difficult decision tonight for the UKMO because both their own model and the ECM are rarely wrong at T96hrs, the GFS is a different matter, if that had shown the ECM output to be honest I wouldn't have cared much.

 

Even if you factor in ensembles, at that range the higher resolution of the operational run should be weighed much more heavily.

[IDO]

the standard way of comparing the 12z op with the 00z ens and spreads reveals that the dam on the depression is out of the range of the spreads. therefore, because the actual thicknesses are comaprable, the depth of the pressure is likely overdone. if it is a shallower system, it should track further to our sw.  relax until the ens come out and double check for clarity.

I am rather Blaise with respect to the ECM ens, since it's update they tend to hunt in a pack, skewing the mean like last night's 12z. The main conclusion from recent GEFS is that there is great uncertainty with regard to the track of that second potential slider and tonite they are no nearer nailing it. Yet 24 hours ago the ECM mean gave us an unbelievable D10 repeated sliding synoptic, and here we are today?Not saying its wrong now, just with that mean I am surprised that it has backtracked so quickly, and by so much. It is now very similar to a main GEFS cluster.Recent update from the met via tweet:Latest Met Office guidance suggests 30% chance of cold, snowy weather arriving next week. Milder, Atlantic conditions favoured.@EssexWeatherSo as the ens suggest there is much uncertainty.

[The PIT]

If that's a bad ECM I would like to see a good one.The summation of the model output today is for a battleground of air masses over the UK, where the snow falls is still up for debate, and at the very least temperatures will be below average.

I trying to see what's bad in it. Okay we're looking in deep FI but it's best we could hope for and the best from the big three tonight.