Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

UPPERS OK AT 144HRS

 

 

 

 

The overall trend looks fine to me peeps, having eye candy charts like the UKMO 144 chart are great but whilst they 5/6 days away the overall detail will surely change.

[Geordiesnow]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012412/ECM1-144.GIF?24-0

 

In the context of the winter so far, ECM 144 tonight is a great chart.

 

In the context of the UKMO 144 chart, the ECM is poor tonight.

 

So much still to be decided, and as others have pointed out, the differences start at T96. Fascinating stuff.

 

If that 144 hour chart is a great chart then expectations are low, quite modest uppers but with the thicknesses and warm SST's, then at least it should be bright and showery which I like but I think the term "wintry showers" is much better suited than snow showers. 

[tight isobar]

Lets see where we are 168 + on this adjustment is required following ukmo,

[nick sussex]

The ECM to be frank is crxp compared to the UKMO and indeed the GFS looks cleaner at T144hrs, the shortwave energy to the north is a problem. I just wish the ECM operational run would just follow one of the countless colder options it had on this mornings ECM ensembles rather than dish up this underwhelming output.

 

Regardless of what it goes onto show, I want to see its earlier trend gone!

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014012412/JN96-21.GIF?24-12

 

The JMA @ 96 is onside very much so with the UKMO

 

So, to summerise-

 

JMA + UKMO + GEM V ECM & Sort of GFS....

 

very very unusual to see those pairings.

 

S

[MR EXTREMES]

1050 scandi heights come on we need this more north and west its looking worrying from the ecm for the cold crew.

in honesty it don't look right everything was amplified then the whole pattern has gone saggy it just looks wrong and not just a little very but it still has some rather impressive ridges around the northern hemisphere.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012412/ECU1-168.GIF?24-0

 

Heavy snow approaching from the west borderline for the South & SW ( think M4 )

 

s

 

JMA trumps the UKMO

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=24&mode=1&nh=1&archive=0

 

New entry @ number 1 with widespread -10 into the UK @ 192.

Edited January 24, 2014 by Steve Murr

[MR EXTREMES]

ok lets have another go says the ecm at 168 looks nice chart

[I remember Atlantic 252]

So ukmo is out on its own tonight. Let's hope it's on the money or else I fear for this forum. But the ECM at t120 doesn't fill me with confidence. Must say though think the models will flip and flop over the weekend. But I would say a cold and snowy outbreak is far from been a done deal here.

 

JMA  and GEM support it and kind of GFS, all show snow moving in from west a battle, something like 25rh Jan '13. ECM not so, hope it is wrong for Friday

[Stuie]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014012412/JN96-21.GIF?24-12

 

The JMA @ 96 is onside very much so with the UKMO

 

So, to summerise-

 

JMA + UKMO + GEM V ECM & Sort of GFS....

 

very very unusual to see those pairings.

 

S

So if the JMA and UKMO are on the right track then we will have an easterly made in China. Great. 

Edited January 24, 2014 by StuieW

[Panayiotis]

Beautiful slider(s) on the JMA @156hrs and again at 180hrs!

Edited January 24, 2014 by Panayiotis

[Long haul to mild]

If that 144 hour chart is a great chart then expectations are low, quite modest uppers but with the thicknesses and warm SST's, then at least it should be bright and showery which I like but I think the term "wintry showers" is much better suited than snow showers. 

 

In the context of the raging Westerlies and almost endless zonality experienced up to now in this awful winter, it looks pretty good to me!

[tight isobar]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014012412/JN96-21.GIF?24-12 The JMA @ 96 is onside very much so with the UKMO So, to summerise- JMA + UKMO + GEM V ECM & Sort of GFS.... very very unusual to see those pairings. S

id be happier personally ECM/ukmo rather than the cross support you have flagged.but its slowly slowy catchy monkey.

[TSNWK]

The ECM to be frank is crxp compared to the UKMO and indeed the GFS looks cleaner at T144hrs, the shortwave energy to the north is a problem. I just wish the ECM operational run would just follow one of the countless colder options it had on this mornings ECM ensembles rather than dish up this underwhelming output.

 

Regardless of what it goes onto show, I want to see its earlier trend gone!

I think it might have been you Nick who remarked this morning that we need to see the ECM Op pick up on one of the colder ensemble members soon, otherwise we run the risk that that the colder ensembles would start dropping away.. Big ECM mean around 8:20 folks, followed by De-Bilt arounf 8:45 stay tuned...

[cooling climate]

 

Is it on its own? Looks like GEM and JMA are siding with it?

I only use the three models ECM,UKMO and GFS if there is not agreementbetween the three of them then I conclude there is a problem with thepattern they are showing and do not bother to look elsewhere to try andback up the pattern I would prefer to be right. That to me is strawclutching. When the UKMO came out I wondered if it was to good to betrue although it does seem strange that the UKMO would be that differentat such a early timeframe. After all at just 4 days out these are verybig descrepencies between the UKMO and the ECM,GFS which I mentioned in aearlier post.

[nick sussex]

First rule of colder patterns, messy = low margin for error and those shortwave phasing issues to the north could turn out badly so we really don't want to see the other models back the ECM, yes some might say it looks okay for some on the T168hrs but the foundation is already on dodgy ground from much earlier.

 

I don't like tonights ECM at all, especially as it starts going downhill at T96hrs, you would expect the operational run to supercede its ensembles at that stage so we can just hope that this trend ends tonight!

[seabreeze86]

JMA is a amazing and follows the UKMO.

 

Just look at the uppers brrrrrrrrrr and plenty of snow if this was to verify.

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014012412/J180-7.GIF?24-12

[MR EXTREMES]

right how do you go from this

to this in one frame

[Whether Idle]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014012412/JN96-21.GIF?24-12

 

The JMA @ 96 is onside very much so with the UKMO

 

So, to summerise-

 

JMA + UKMO + GEM V ECM & Sort of GFS....

 

very very unusual to see those pairings.

 

S

Yes.  The UKMO deserved support and JMA provides that with a snow fest slider away from the SW later!

[bluearmy]

really not sure ecm 12z is unexpected. it is a eastward correction but its still a good run if you want a slider.  lets see if the system manages to undercut sw of the uk or if it cuts across the south. the former should be a pleasing result, given the T120/T144 frames

Edited January 24, 2014 by bluearmy

[Boro Snow]

-10 uppers moving into the northeast at 180 on jma,, im in donny that day to watch the boro, but looking at the chart the game could be in serious doubt 

 

[weather eater]

Still a good trend But I do hate it when the forum gets too confident; it’s like a Groundhog Day script. you know how it goes, it’s usually tears at the end. UKMO does look good but I've never trusted its 144hr output, however, on saying that I've also always thought that the ECMs reputation for blocking projections was over blown.

[SMU]

Wll like it or loath it

 

that has DANGER written all over it-

 

Gales, rain, sleet, DEEP snow for the midlands North....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012412/ECU1-192.GIF?24-0

S

Edited January 24, 2014 by Steve Murr

[Long haul to mild]

It's on a knife edge, but I wouldn't personally being going down Ladbrokes* to place any bets against the UKMO at T96.

 

Remember all those winters when the ECM and GFS had great cold spells and we weren't happy because the UKMO wasn't on board at an early timeframe? It always ended up being correct so let's hope that tradition continues now it's the pick of the big three!

 

*Other bookmakers are available........

[bluearmy]

right how do you go from this

to this in one frame

 

 

look at the 850 winds. yuo will see a strong jet streak heading ne which engages with the pfj = deepening.  similar to what is happening this weekend to our nw.  its in line with its previous runs - just corrected east a bit.