Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[weatherguy]

GEFS mean at Day 7

 

 

Quite impressive -2c covering most of the UK, considering the "wet" cold outlook which will mix out the coldest uppers (by no means a bad thing if you're looking for battleground snow), and of course the warmer runs which will dilute the mean.

[phil nw.]

The slight shift west of the pattern continues.

Note the Azores High being pushed further out into the Atlantic too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

Even the usually progressive GFS showing that stalling front next Friday with another little wave development on it.

A cold surface flow off the continent ahead of that would turn rain to snow in many areas.

The details will change of course but this is typical when moist Atlantic air clashes with the cold from further east.

Battleground UK now looking more and more likely after the weekend as the block continues to hold firm against further lows from the west.

I am sure more little adjustments to the positioning of the boundaries will come-hopefully just a little further west to give us some margin of error and of course to deepen any cold from the east.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Evening all

After a long day, I got blown away by the ecm ens this morning, wow, great trend for low pressure to happily head south east, perhaps even to the west of the UK which would provide a lot of fun and trauma

GFS has the pattern further east but the general trend is there, just needs a few cranks further west (as per usual)

Await the UKMO to see if we are getting closer to a cold and potentially snowy outlook next week

[IDO]

Do not panic UKMO is out now....its another slider

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1979/archives-1979-1-30-0-0.png  

 

I love the consistency of the UKMO. However we still do not have support from the GEFS. In fact a step backwards on the 12z for the second slider.

 

Only 4 members support the ECM at T192. About 4 others have the NW-SE flow but cut off the flow and are not so snowy (potentially). Some real poor members:

 

  

 

  

 

 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

SUBLIME GFS12z with the Atlantic disrupting against the huge block to the NE in the relaibale timeframe-snowfest...

[Summer Sun]

We are making progress with UKMO t48 and t60 out now

 

[fergieweather]

To save you all waiting - similar UKMO-GM from T+120 onwards. Signal for the colder entrainment is one with confidence now next week... how long it lasts, is not. More woes end of next week, re disruptive weather? It's got a bothersome look...

[snowbob]

Could that be desruptive snow Ian

Edited January 24, 2014 by snowbob

[TSNWK]

To save you all waiting - similar UKMO-GM from T+120 onwards. Signal for the colder entrainment is one with confidence now next week... how long it lasts, is not. More woes end of next week, re disruptive weather? It's got a bothersome look...

Many thanks for the tip-off on what to expect from UKMO-GM. Would bothersome mean Rain, Wind, Snow and a little bit of not sure

 

Cheers

[cooling climate]

 

GFS continues with its cooling trend for mainland UK this afternoons 12z 8 day temperatures anomaly is another cold one for all but the far south west, Kent and parts of western wales where temperatures are marginally above average here

 

 

If I am reading that right it is not a 2m temperature but an anomaly therefore

it is not really that cold at all,just 1c or so centigrade below normal.

[Summer Sun]

Could that be desruptive snow Ian

 

I think the disruption will be down to more rain in the areas which badly need some prolonged dry weather for example the somerset levels. The village of Muchelney in south Somerset has been cut off for almost a month.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

To save you all waiting - similar UKMO-GM from T+120 onwards. Signal for the colder entrainment is one with confidence now next week... how long it lasts, is not. More woes end of next week, re disruptive weather? It's got a bothersome look...

He means the "potential" for disruption snow guys , not a given but potential.

[Fred Sykes]

To save you all waiting - similar UKMO-GM from T+120 onwards. Signal for the colder entrainment is one with confidence now next week... how long it lasts, is not. More woes end of next week, re disruptive weather? It's got a bothersome look...

Oh Ian, your such a tease!!!

[tight isobar]

12z ecm 15 mins, why do I get the feeling its gonna be a FAB run?.And perhaps be the crowning model regards the colder incur, and at last lead the way forward, !

[Mucka]

 If I am reading that right it is not a 2m temperature but an anomaly thereforeit is not really that cold at all,just 1c or so centigrade below normal.

 

To be fair to SS it is an anomaly chart but it reads 2/3C below normal for most of the UK which over a week is pretty chilly as an anomaly.

Edited January 24, 2014 by Mucka

[pointswest]

Oh Ian, your such a tease!!!

Maybe Fergie could give us a BOOM!! IF he's on duty tonite! only joking.

[Summer Sun]

t144 from UKMO is out, high pressure trying to build with it comes the colder air to our east

 

 

Closer look at the 850's

 

 

Edited January 24, 2014 by Summer Sun

[easton888]

Summer Sun, are those -8 temps over central and northern england an improvement by the UKMO?

[Purga]

Well a half decent UKMO @ 144hrs then.

Pity we can't see the precip charts but I would imagine some decent snow showers across the east , SE, south etc.

Edited January 24, 2014 by Purga

[cooling climate]

The differences between the UKMO and the GFS at just t96 are stark.

The GFS has the low a few hundred miles further north and 20mb deeper

also the high is centred over Moscow compared with UKMO which has it

just to the east of Svalbard. Crazy at such short range.

Just seen the UKMO t144 chart and its a beauty. Mr Murr will be happy

with that.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012412/UN144-21.GIF?24-18

 

Chart of the WInter from the UKMO

 

Deep cold coming west-

 

see where the 1040 is in central europe- those thicknesses look to be around 500 DAM .... BRRRRRRRR

 

 

S

[Blizzardof82]

UKMO ends with a lovely far fetched easterly wind, not too shabby that

[Cloud 10]

t144 from UKMO is out, high pressure trying to build with it comes the colder air to our east

 

 

Closer look at the 850's

 

 

 

Sensational UKMO this evening. 

[winterof79]

To save you all waiting - similar UKMO-GM from T+120 onwards. Signal for the colder entrainment is one with confidence now next week... how long it lasts, is not. More woes end of next week, re disruptive weather? It's got a bothersome look...

That sir is THE second best post for many a moon.....the best was your last one on the previous page.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well a half decent UKMO @ 144hrs then.

Pity we can't see the precip charts but I would imagine some decent snow showers across the east , SE, south etc.

HALF decent? hahahaha,think its a tad better than HALF decent.