Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[AWD]

GEM at +210, what an odd chart

 

 

I think a good word to sum up the output is "messy". Certainly interesting and anything could happen, looks like the weather wants to throw the kitchen sink at us with rain, gales, snow, sleet, hail, thunder, frosts. Perhaps most of the cold coming from the West? Odd indeed.

Positives there including a very southerly tracking Jet Stream and thus lack of mild temps.

Negatives, lack of colder upper air and pressure dominance at favourable northern latitudes.

Like you say, messy and therefore probably unlikely to verify like that.

[Bobby]

As is often the case Bobby's post conflicts with many of the above in a dramatic way. I'm aware I may sound like a broken record and that the models can be interpreted in a number of ways but surely as meteorology is a science the opinions should not differ to the extent of the above if a relevant level of knowledge is possessed (awful for snow/great for snow) With the subjectivity in here sometimes we may as well be discussing politics.

 

I was talking about the general bigger picture as being not so good if looking for an easterly for example, but that specific chart is better. But it's a long way out and I think looking at the bigger picture is more important at that range than looking at specific events in FI.

[tight isobar]

GFS is a mess 12z .all eyes ukmo (which is solid again) and ECM 12z, this is again any gaining or agree should be focused.look forward to this particular this evening (12z ECM).

[Liam J]

As is often the case Bobby's post conflicts with many of the above in a dramatic way. I'm aware I may sound like a broken record and that the models can be interpreted in a number of ways but surely as meteorology is a science the opinions should not differ to the extent of the above if a relevant level of knowledge is possessed (awful for snow/great for snow) With the subjectivity in here sometimes we may as well be discussing politics.

Well I've just taken & commented on the GFS 12z at face value which is undeniably a very snowy run for much of the UK. 

Edited January 24, 2014 by Liam J

[Summer Sun]

t06, t42 and now t96 has updated on UKMO

 

 

No other 12z data so far

Edited January 24, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Liam J]

UKMO @ T96 - not sure whats happened to rest of the run though?!

 

[andymusic]

Mr Hugo's latest thoughts

 

Matthew Hugoâ€@MattHugo811h

@DerekTheWeather @paul78310011 - Mid week to late next week at the mo but change from the west could be interesting and doesn't look mild.

[Purga]

No UKMO 12z update yet?

[weather eater]

The best way to view the 12z GFS is ignore the detail, it’s going to change, it’s the trend that’s important and this is going exactly in the way we want at the moment.

[Summer Sun]

No UKMO 12z update yet?

 

t06, t42 and t96 only so far

[tight isobar]

t06, t42 and now t96 has updated on UKMO

 

 

No other 12z data so far

yes frame skipping atm 12 ukmo, reading between frame output is as 00z.

[karlos1983]

I would say the UKMO is solid looking at the +96 that is available so far. what a tease, and of all the days to do it.

 

 

filling and heading off SE quicker than the GEM at the same time frame.

Edited January 24, 2014 by karlos1983

[winterof79]

Anything like this stalling front could produce shed loads of snow over large parts of the UK, usual caveats apply at this range. Definitely a very snowy looking 12z GFS. too many people panicking over 850 temps, anything sub zero would suffice in the set up we're looking at, a very unusual one and one that hasn't been seen for quite some time! Exciting times ahead folks...

 

gfs-2-162.png

Indeed LJ ,

This set up is rare, as usually you have low pressures crashing in from the Alantic swinging in from the s/w or west against the immovable.

Also historically the fronts never get far enough eastward.To have the fronts stall slap bang over us as is a big ask but the fact that they are sliding goes in our favour.Even if they do not get far enough east that can only be a good precursor.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Better angle of high pressure , stronger better aligned easterly coming in. Azores ridge further north than on the 0z at t96. We await the rest of you sir ukmo .

[london-snow]

Has UKMO updated fine at Exeter Ian? looks like there is a data issue in getting the 12z to meteociel ect

There tampering with the data. Word has it that they have a deal set up with dr sussex and his magic prozac pills lol..

[Mucka]

This is a great post because of the fact that it highlights the misconceptions that are often thrown around on here regarding the zonal regime. What is patently obvious is that the Atlantic will be a spawning ground for deep depressions and that these will move westwards towards the UK, hence the westerly regime indicated. It is because these are then stalling, slipping under the block or dissipating in the vincinity of the UK that the confusion arises. We are but at the end of the westerly line in this case, rather than along the main route that we have been all winter, and the difference between this has not been picked up by some members here - hence the confusion from some and the assumption that it will turn mild when the next westerly burst ends up and dissipates on our doorstep.

 

A very encouraging set up for those who enjoy winter proper (after we get through this weekend).

 

There may be some misconceptions.misunderstandings among some posters but if I may put it like this; the MetO position today is also more encouraging than that of yesterday. I think that is a fair representation of the reality having read the relevant quotes and coldies should be encouraged by it.

 

Also encouraging is the UKMO sill moving the pattern West from yesterdays output. 96h comparison today/yesterday

 

 

 

 

The consistency of this model has been amazing - no good if it turns out wrong I know but it certainly helps confidence it may be on the right track.

[Summer Sun]

GFS continues with its cooling trend for mainland UK this afternoons 12z 8 day temperatures anomaly is another cold one for all but the far south west, Kent and parts of western wales where temperatures are marginally above average here

 

 

[itsnowjoke]

862 users are reading right now.......................that numbers going to rise!!i love this place!

Thats nothing lol

[winterof79]

Do not panic UKMO is out now....its another slider

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1979/archives-1979-1-30-0-0.png  

Edited January 24, 2014 by winterof79

[DTHFCJ]

... and having just chatted to an Exeter colleague asking if I'd seen the EC ENS for later next week/weekend, the talk is of absolutely the opposite re 'disappointment' for coldies. Enough said.

Ahh but Ian you say an exeter colleague?...but whats big "chief"s view on things

sound like a complicated mess hats off to your guys with the job you do,and hats off to many posters on here who know their stuff......tis hard work this weather stuff.....well it is for me ......

*picks up dropped dime bar*

[shedhead]

This is a great post because of the fact that it highlights the misconceptions that are often thrown around on here regarding the zonal regime. What is patently obvious is that the Atlantic will be a spawning ground for deep depressions and that these will move westwards towards the UK, hence the westerly regime indicated. It is because these are then stalling, slipping under the block or dissipating in the vincinity of the UK that the confusion arises. We are but at the end of the westerly line in this case, rather than along the main route that we have been all winter, and the difference between this has not been picked up by some members here - hence the confusion from some and the assumption that it will turn mild when the next westerly burst ends up and dissipates on our doorstep.

 

A very encouraging set up for those who enjoy winter proper (after we get through this weekend).

All well and good Chiono, but rather superfluous due to the fact I can't think of one single post across the last week that has suggested the weather is turning mild. The main misconception that actually needs addressing (but is all to conveniently ignored in here) is when someone suggest it might not be as cold as others say, they are not be defination saying it will be mild... you are as aware as the rest of us that other options exist in between. 

 

All to often we see members saying things along the lines of ' I don't see a bitter Easterly developing due to bla, bla bla', but for some strange reason the words written appear to be read as 'I see a mild SW'erly developing due to bla, bla, bla.

Edited January 24, 2014 by shedhead

[The PIT]

A stodgy run from the GFS which gets better the deeper into FI it goes. Need to get some colder uppers into that low pressure at the moment closer to reliable time frame it's looking cool and wet which is going to be rather annoying. UKMO on the blink to add to the frustration.

[snowbob]

Do not panic UKMO is out now....its another slider

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1979/archives-1979-1-30-0-0.png

lol

Very similar chart to your name

If only

Edited January 24, 2014 by snowbob

[Bobby]

GEFS mean at Day 7

 

[fergieweather]

A stodgy run from the GFS which gets better the deeper into FI it goes. Need to get some colder uppers into that low pressure at the moment closer to reliable time frame it's looking cool and wet which is going to be rather annoying. UKMO on the blink to add to the frustration.

 

Data problem at Exeter - it's being dealt with