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Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Assuming the JMA solution doesn't happen I think coldies will be best looking to the NW for cold air and potential snow

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    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

    Only if you think two dimensional, I would have thought with altitude.....

    Maybe above 1,000ft - but how many people live so high up? Can't get excited by hill snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

    ECM starts well and then the PV decides to anchor itself to the Southern tip of Greenland again and the azores high does us little favours.

    The phrase polishing a turd springs to mind at the moment.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    ukmo 120

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    jma at 120

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    ecm at 120

     

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    gem at 120

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    navgem at 120

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    gefs at 120

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    cfs at 120

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    make what you will beyond this is fi but theres most certainl a 50/50 split either way for cold sustained east north east flow or west north west although none to warm them upper coming out of the states.

    Casting my mind back to Sunday evening and if memory serves me right then all of those 120 charts are not too different from that JMA 192 on Sunday evening... Bit shout out to the JMA on that and let's hope the other models continue to follow our new best friend MR JMA, who I understand is also valued by the metoffice...

    Cheers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

    Assuming the JMA solution doesn't happen I think coldies will be best looking to the NW for cold air and potential snow

    I'm beginning to lean that way myself to be honest .When I was a kid i remember me and my brother used to wish northwesterlies with snow showers coming through the Cheshire gap , I remember in 2001/2 I think it was we had a very snowy day via the Cheshire gap , parts of northwest mids , ie Stourbridge , Wolverhampton , frankly etc had 5" of snow one Saturday night , I was driving back from Lichfield and got caught in a blizzard it was unreal , extremely heavy , loved every minute of it though . It will be a good trend to watch over the coming days as the models have been hinting at this recently. Edited by Severe Siberian icy blast
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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

    as has been mentioned, how ironic- the atlantic snow machine-

     

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    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

    Big up to the UKMO raw, some decent consistency there at least between the 00z and tonight's 12z. I do find though it has a habit of being a bit too 'simple' sometimes in its evolution, I guess we will find out in not too long a time. An improvement at least from the ECM on this morning, at D6 the window is clearly there for a ridge to be thrown (come on, we were all praying for a WAA surge between +144 and +168 weren't we?) but unforunately there is just no upstream signal currently to support it. so it looks like the Azores high sat to our SW isn't moving soon and it is going to be tricky (though not impossible) for any sort of sustainable cold spell to set up in that instance. Then there is the JMA, it just doesn't seem to want to let go of its cold aspirations! It has to be treated with respect, I read a couple of days back that it is taken seriously by the UKMET (I knew that bit before) but learnt it was because it is written for a small landmass surrounded all round by ocean (Japan) and with all the nuances that go with it. Well, I think that's it, I've covered the main 3 models there.  So looking at the 12z model suite it is clear to see why (at present) the METO are on the going for a more westerly than continental influence next week. However it really wouldn't take much of a change early on to swing the balance back in our favour and even if not it could lead to some very interesting weather anyway!? Plus... I could envisage a further window of opportunity going into the 2nd week of Feb, this time with that damn vortex to the NW drained, ok probably not fully but maybe enough by then to allow favourable ridging and HLB to finally develop. Watch this grow on GFS FI output in coming days, it has hinted at this already.

    "I've covered the three main models there". *looks anxiously at the door for a visit from the FBI*
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Yes it's ironic that we spend all our time dreading the westerlies but the west is so cold because of the mighty strong and cold vortex this year we actually stand a chance of having a snowy westerly , it's not unheard of , and Iv seen it twice in my life, the Atlantic is mild so throw 850's of -5/6 to the uk and that would be a snow machine in the truest sense , it is of course all speculation at this juncture but very interesting to talk about , Sunday night into Monday could be our first taste of something snowy from the . . . . Wait for it . . . . WEST!!!!!

    Modified rPm could be the name of the game next week, a good setup for frequent showers with hail, sleet, snow and unfortunately more rain - how far they get inland is open to debate, I expect it could be a headache of forecasts next week?! Edited by Mapantz
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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    as has been mentioned, how ironic- the atlantic snow machine-

     

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    Flippin heck T264 and from a sort of broken machine. I suppose what it does say is that there must be cold air/data around that the model picks up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

    Flippin heck T264 and from a sort of broken machine. I suppose what it does say is that there must be cold air/data around that the model picks up.

     

     

    its possible that the atlantic is being cooled by all the frigid air coming out of n. america, therefore less mixing out of the cold air as it tracks over towards us.

     

    SST's cooling as we speak.......

     

    http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/global/nctest/viewer.shtml?-natl-temperature-000-small-rundate=latest

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    Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm dry summers
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

    Well here we go again, what happens next?

     

    Assuming we get some kind of cold flow, I still think that the Atlantic wont get back in next week anything like as easily as some seem to think it will; look at the current period and how the models have handed it so poorly, trying to smash Westerlies through far too early. Anyone making bold predictions at this juncture could well end up peering out through a few omelettes Posted Image

     

    As for looking to the West for snow, that seems a rather high risk strategy, and certainly from an IMBY perspective NW'lys are exactly what I don't want to see, although I appreciate they COULD be very productive for favoured areas. Let's have a cold block and some kind of NE'ly instead, or an Atlantic depression meeting embedded cold air, then most of the country can get in on the act!

    Edited by Chalk Serpent
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    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

    @Gibby

    I think raising the concern of rain here Ian is falling on deaf ears as most just look for one thing I'm afraid. i have relatives who live in Moorland Nr Bridgwater and I am quite concerned for their welfare if your weekend predictions come to fruition.

    People look for wintry weather in winter. The rain has been mentioned by others but we have had so much of the stuff many choose to ignore the latest prognosis for obvious reasons.
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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    Theres no point looking to far in the distance,there is some serious weather to come from now to Sunday! After that models are really struggling with the synoptic pattern, but does look there will be enough cold about by next week and even before for some snowflakes to fall even in Southern England...As some members have suggested. a complete utter nightmare to forecast in the coming days...Posted Image A very interesting pattern , but the old Devil will be in the detail!Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    I think its quite plausible that Scotland and the far north may see some decent snow as the low sinks, especially inland and away from windward coasts.

     

    Theres an area of colder 850's which get thrown nw in towards the low circulation ,currently these seem to hit the UK's forcefield and pass to the nw but this could change depending on the orientation of the low and its exact track.

     

    What would help matters is if this low becomes a shallower feature, looking upstream and NCEP did prefer to include more of the operational models because they are more amplified, the suggestion here that the ensembles might be a little too flat, the pattern over there is expected to see shortwaves will continue to hit the southern flank of the amplified eastern USA troughing.

     

    The margins in the current pattern are small between cool and wet and cold and snowy, so all still to play for IMO.

     

    PS that snow risk in the north could extend further south, don't rule out some backedge snow as the low clears, again it depends on where that pool of colder 850's goes.

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

    I think raising the concern of rain here Ian is falling on deaf ears as most just look for one thing I'm afraid. i have relatives who live in Moorland Nr Bridgwater and I am quite concerned for their welfare if your weekend predictions come to fruition.

     

    very true gibby. but when looking at the treasure map, we tend to put the crocodile infested river that's in the way to the back of our minds

     

    we might just all be eaten by the crocodiles......

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    Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

    As of a few minutes ago (!) the consensus opinion from UKMO colleagues does remain one of Atlantic superiority returning at some stage next week (intense cold leaking ad-infinitum from Canada ensures that likelihood), but we shall see.

    Hardly a surprise really Ian given what you have been saying consistently for several days, along with the fact not one model suggests anything other than a return to Atlantic dominance once the briefest of brief cold NE'erly shot is over next week - that's if at actually appears at all.

     

    It looks increasingly likely to me that any snow will come from between W and N around the turn of the month, rather than from between N and E, indeed hoping the block will get boosted by the Arctic high and extend sufficiently west to put us in the freezer appears increasingly forlorn imo....which is very annoying because it pretty much destroys my cold late Winter forecastPosted Image  

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The good thing about the ECM is their tendency to over amplify the pattern and the Atlantic Ridge looks a case in point. At T144:

     

    post-14819-0-06166600-1390417737_thumb.p

     

    There is just no room in the Atlantic sector for that ridge and the trough to be sustainable with a mega Russian block and an active PV being pushed east via the Pacific ridges. In fact all the other models (ops) do not see an Atlantic ridge as defined as the ECM.

     

    That amplification means the energy from the PV ridges NE and bulldozes the Greenland upper ridge, allowing all the Canadian PV, in its full glory to crash through for a zonal bonanza.

     

    T168:   post-14819-0-98093100-1390418090_thumb.p

     

    JMA upper Atlantic ridge is subtle and allows the flow from the PV to push gently between the GH and AH, not too slow or too quick:

     

    T144: post-14819-0-45886600-1390418329_thumb.g

     

    So lets hope the ECM is wrong with this ridging.

     

    The GFS 12z is closer upstream to the JMA:  post-14819-0-44580700-1390418687_thumb.p

     

    But it is downstream where they differ, the JMA has better orientated heights to the NE and this stops some of the upper flow leaking, allowing a more concentrated flow, south-eastwards into the trough.

     

    A mixed signal still with the GEFS as to whether it will go the JMA, GFS or ECM route, pretty evenly split. Interestingly the six members that go the ECM Atlantic ridge way at T144, all are zonal by T240. That is about 30% and at that time only 50% of the whole ensemble suite is zonal. So I can see this being, like the UKMO Top Guy describes, a potential tipping point.

     

    Hopefully ECM will ditch the amped Atlantic ridge, even though it does fall nicely in the GEFS, and thus it is not an outlier synoptic.

     

    Too early to worry about >T240, as what happens before will guide that path.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)

    ECM starts well and then the PV decides to anchor itself to the Southern tip of Greenland again and the azores high does us little favours.The phrase polishing a turd springs to mind at the moment.

     

    Aaah but you can cover one in glitter!

     

    For what its worth I don't see the Atlantic 'getting in' next week...well certainly not in the blasting into Europe sense and the latest JMA run might actually be on to something.

     

    That block will be hard to shift and is constantly being under estimated by the models.

     

    Lets see if the 18z GFS can shed any light on where next week is headed synoptic wise...

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    I think that stormy low on sunday is a game changer, I think coldies are in for a spell of proper wintry weather next week with a higher risk of snow, ice & frost. The Ukmo 12z @ T+144 hours is even more impressive than the 00z in my opinion. I really believe that parts of the uk will have settling snow next week as

    I agree although on nearly all the model runs today the "parts of the uk to have settling snow" are the parts above 300m and mainly north and east of the midlands. Low levels of England / wales may see a sleety mix at time. Let's hope for more upgrades over the next few days!
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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    been reading  the Atlantic Storms  thread  looks like us  in the uk  will have to batten down for the  weekend  ,looking  at  the models some  very nasty looking  lows heading  our way, which will  cause  more flooding  with constant  heavy  rain

    post-4629-0-05444000-1390421364_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    I think that stormy low on sunday is a game changer, I think coldies are in for a spell of proper wintry weather next week with a higher risk of snow, ice & frost. The Ukmo 12z @ T+144 hours is even more impressive than the 00z in my opinion. I really believe that parts of the uk will have settling snow next week as the low swings southeastwards and then draws much colder air from the north east down across the uk. Sunday is looking severe with damaging winds and torrential rain bringing more flooding but then turning colder next week with the ppn turning more and more wintry..I believe it will happen.Posted Image

    Tell you what Karl, 10 out of 10 for enthusiasm. I am a fellow snowy for the record. You did shoot me down for posting non snowy charts but you are forgiven due to my first sentence. This could one of the few times it is easier to win the lottery than predict the weather. 

    With the ECM, it is a case of "chase the uppers". Something like the FI below would suffice.

    Posted Image

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