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Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.


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Meanwhile, purely out of interest at least we are not the only part of the N Hemisphere experiencing a mild Winter.  850 temp 12-14c in parts of W Canada, with not one part of Alaska north of -5c line and only 30% north of the 0c line...that must be a first for late Jan.

 

Posted Image

 

Not a good year for being an Ice Road Trucker!! 

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Well one thing is certain, if the met office outlook backs the ukmo 00z we will have a very wintry update with snow, ice and frosts galore by next week.

 

 

Recent tweet from IF:

 

  fergieweather

@MattHugo81 note UKMO have modified GM T+144 to shift LP centre NW of Ireland to better match median position of other suites. V uncertain..

22/01/2014 11:21

 

Uncertainty but not going with their own model at T144. As others have said the 12z runs will be the judge on this.

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didnt they have cold in december ? it may be that feb sees the trough back west again. that could tie in with a generally retrogressive hemispheric movement ...............

Danger of drifting off topic here, but yes ba they had a very different Dec to us, in fact Dec 13 was the coldest month of the year in Fairbanks.

 

Even towards months end it remains very mild, with the -5c line having extended NW into Siberia, but certainly some signs by then of a change in the overall hemispheric pattern upstream...what that will mean for our little island come early Feb though remains very much open to question tho imo.

 

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Edited by shedhead
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There is looking at current Data a possible synoptic situation brewing for early next week which could spring some wintry surprises ,its currently at the 6/7 day range so taking that into account and the fact that beyond that is going to be very hard to model even with todays super computers we could be looking at our first realy good cold shot ,not to be sniffed at Gang ,come on people im a snow freak Aweek in meteorology is a v long time and remember its not an exact science so all to play for FEBRUARY a realy truly winter month so chill out ,And pray ,cheers i,ll have a half Posted Image

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Nothing has changed from last night to this morning, the ops are underwhelming but the mean scatter up to T240 are very similar with several options on the table.

 

The ECM op for London was a temp outlier at T240:  post-14819-0-08673200-1390390818_thumb.g

 

As was the 0z op for the GFS (in FI): post-14819-0-88848100-1390390938_thumb.g

 

At the moment it would be unwise to read too much into the ops as they are clearly struggling.

 

GFS are finally getting the Pacific Ridging into their charts and although the first Arctic High is a bit of a spoiler (T180) as it sinks into the Russian high and keeps the pattern too far east for cold, they are now modelling the Pacific Ridge to send further height towards the pole in FI. So the 06z:

 

Mean at T240:  post-14819-0-04625700-1390391496_thumb.p  ...no real change from yesterday; not consistency with that pattern but the outcome between the various clusters (in other words the continuing uncertainty) .

 

At T384 Arctic High mark 2:  post-14819-0-12358500-1390391197_thumb.p

 

As I said at the weekend I would have preferred the more progressive GFS runs so the PV could move west to east as quick as possible, but consistency with respect to the Russian high now suggests the Canadian PV remains in play for the foreseeable.

 

We await the op and mean to marry up and preferably cross-model as well. After T240 the GFS trend towards zonal, but this is very low confidence due to such a fluid pre T240.

 

Still good prospects and we may know more this evening.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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The met office are now commenting on the potential for a short colder interlude next week

 

There may be a colder interlude around midweek, with easterly winds and wintry showers in the northeast of the UK. However, a return to westerly winds is expected from the end of the week, with further outbreaks of rain, hill snow in northern Britain and strong winds

Edited by Summer Sun
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An anodine update from METO today with a hint of a colder easterly for the NE and a period of colder weather generally before things settle down.

Not much mention of anything particularly wintry later on apart from some frost & fog. No real snow prospects for the bulk of lowland UK - Could be worse.

 

ENS reflect this view quite well

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Edited by Purga
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An anodine update from METO today with a hint of a colder easterly for the NE and a period of colder weather generally before things settle down.

Not much mention of anything particularly wintry later on apart from some frost & fog. No real snow prospects for the bulk of lowland UK - Could be worse.

 

ENS reflect this view quite well

Posted Image

That Chart represents the area north of Brighton,....... not really representative of low land Britain.....

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I do hope so as a snow starved Kentish man I will be looking forward even more to my journey up north to see spurs on Feb 1St surely better chance of seeing some of the white stuff in Hull than down south here?:-)

I live in Hull and I hate to tell you but your more likely to get snow where you are. We hardly ever get snow here because we are at sea level and postioned very badly for snow . Last year when most of the country had feet of snow the most we got was a few inches at best. What the models are showing at the moment certainly would not bring any snow to hull as it looks marginal and we need no marginality at all for us to see any laying snow. Edited by lightningst
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There is looking at current Data a possible synoptic situation brewing for early next week which could spring some wintry surprises ,its currently at the 6/7 day range so taking that into account and the fact that beyond that is going to be very hard to model even with todays super computers we could be looking at our first realy good cold shot ,not to be sniffed at Gang ,come on people im a snow freak Aweek in meteorology is a v long time and remember its not an exact science so all to play for FEBRUARY a realy truly winter month so chill out ,And pray ,cheers i,ll have a half Posted Image

".....and I will have the other half with you! I am still optimistic that strat effects still to play out, hp to the east and a cold pool in place we have the ingredients for a blast from the past, 63 or 47 anyone (well maybe a little modified), keep smiling...
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The 06z lives up to it reputation for being the worst model of the day.  I wouldn't give it any consideration.

 

The battle will be UKMO V ECMS solutions today. & its whether we get any secondary amplitude in the atlantic when the low sinks south.

 

ECM has been consistently poor for the past 5 runs, whilst UKMO has been consistently upgrading over the last few day.  That creates quite a conflict, as the ECM is generally the best, however its rarely correct unless is UKMO is on board.

 

Its a wait & see scenario.

 

FWIW the NAVGEM run that I used as a forecast here ( 18z 20th 0-144) is still what I expect to see.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=1&mois=1&heure=18&jour=20&annee=2014

 

I think you will see the ECM back the UKMO tonight.

S

 

 

So GFS is broken ECM is broken and now UKMO is the model of choice except it doesn't go far enough out.

Steve I think you're getting far to biased these days or simply concentrating far too out in FI land where all models are fairly unreliable. I guess thats why they don't provide scores for them.

 

ECM doesn't seem to be doing any worse than ti was earlier in the year http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz5.html for day five and for day six http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.htm

 

A little harsh considering that Steve clearly mentioned in his post that ECM is generally the best model as highlighted above.  Surely his point about the UKMO getting support for its 00z output from tonight's 12z ECM is just his opinion and nothing to do with verification stats?

 

Don't have much time this morning, so will stay brief. Up to 240, ecm doesn't look particularly pleasing to the eye... Then i had a look at the projected snowfall totals as per the euro

Posted Image

not without interest, esp the further north you go.

post 240, ecm ext still keen on lower heights to our nw. But certainly, lets see if we can get any delivery in the nxt week or so, and go from there.

 

 

This shows snow in the North sea? These honestly cannot be reliable less than 20%?

 

Is this not just snow falling as opposed to snow laying?  If that is the case, then surely it is more likely that snow would fall widely over the warm North Sea due to convection etc?

 

It seems there is alot of doom and gloom on the forum today, which is understandable to an extent given that the majority on here are so snow starved, but I think some of it is unnecessary given that output for early next week is still swinging wildly.

 

Look at these ensembles...ok it is the 6z and it is only for my part of the UK but I make that a 10-12 degree spread of uppers as early at T96

 

Posted Image

 

Yes it could all go down the pan as far as a freeze up next week is concerned, but we could just as easily be staring down the barrel of a widespread snow event or two in the very near future.

 

Keep the faith coldies!  Posted Image

Edited by Kentish Snowman
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Best hoped for a Western - NW UK bias in the short term from the alleged poor 06Z GFS - I am refusing to look long term as the disappointment continues......

 

post-6879-0-10618900-1390398008_thumb.pn

 

Meanwhile Helvellyn at (less than 3k ft) Posted Image

 

 

post-6879-0-44620800-1390398086_thumb.jp

 

 

Nice but at altitude  - and a hard slog to be in it.

 

Ian

 

 

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good afternoon all, been lurking here all winter so far and from a coldies perspective it has been so near but yet so far, but with just under half of winter left we have to keep the faith that something wintery will arrive soon,if not my only chance of seeing snow this winter will be when i go to Iceland in mid Feb, to all those that give us there opinions and predictions keep up the good work, it is fasinating reading at times.

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At least we can be confident of some wintry showers of sleet and snow on Sunday night and Monday especially near windward coasts in the brisk north west wind. More than we have had in a long time now.

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Nice one Mucka, the standard of posting on here is generally exceptional. As for the outlook, I think the models are showing rather colder weather at times with an increasing incidence of wintry ppn, ice and night frosts within the unsettled and occasionally windy pattern which shows no sign of ending. I would not rule out a more significantly snowy spell popping up soon, as per the stunning ukmo 00z.

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a positive i can find loooking at the 6/10 day ecm ens output is over recent days, the 7/10 day ens mean is always corrected west and the trough sharpened up by the time it becomes day 6 output. so we can hope that next weekends troughing follows suit

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Ian Fergusson (fergie weather on here) has tweeted this

 

note UKMO have modified GM T+144 to shift LP centre NW of Ireland to better match median position of other suites. V uncertain..

 

A 'tipping point' as UKMO rightly describe it: i.e. will there be any relaxation of cyclonic westerly theme to dry-up things..?

 

Looks finely balanced at the moment lets see if the 12z's can shed some more light

Edited by Summer Sun
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In relation to the 120 to 144hrs crucial timeframe alluded to by Karlos, upstream there is low forecast confidence for how these shortwaves engage the PV and that makes a difference to how much energy spills east into the Atlantic and also the angle of that moving into there.

 

This from the Missouri state forecast by NCEP:

 

Have low confidence in timing of any s/w that would reinforce thecold air in place and/or bring a system capable of precip. Havetherefore kept POPs on the low end. System progd to move thru theregion on Sat currently appears that it will be lacking moistureto produce much in the way of SN. However, another system on Sunhas better potential. However, sfc low track differences amongmdls are too great for more than low chance POPs. The GFS soln iscurrently a westward outlier compared to the ECMWF/GEM, but hasgood support from GEFS members.

 

The GFS solution they're talking about is the 00hrs run and not the 06hrs output. 

Edited by nick sussex
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Based on this mornings 00z UKMO at t144 Ian Fergusson (fergie weather on here) has tweeted this

 

note UKMO have modified GM T+144 to shift LP centre NW of Ireland to better match median position of other suites. V uncertain..

 

A 'tipping point' as UKMO rightly describe it: i.e. will there be any relaxation of cyclonic westerly theme to dry-up things..?

 

Hi SS, he also states "its merely tweaked with result of delaying cold ingress to N/NE. Otherwise similar to raw 00z soluiton"

 

You post could be a little miss leading if taken at face value.

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a positive i can find loooking at the 6/10 day ecm ens output is over recent days, the 7/10 day ens mean is always corrected west and the trough sharpened up by the time it becomes day 6 output. so we can hope that next weekends troughing follows suit

 

That has to be the most realistic hope for coldies, that the models are underplaying the strength of blocking and we can get some Westward shift in the pattern but of course with each run that passes the output has more chance of verifying as we approach D-Day (the 27th?) so really we need to start seeing signs this is the case over the next day or so. (At the outside we probably have another 5 runs for the Euros as the first low and its interaction with the block will be modelled correctly by then

I know it is a bit theatrical calling a specific date because we have the Atlantic trying to push in 24th/25th as well and how that interacts with the Scandi high obviously has implications for the future pattern but how the charts are modelled for the 27th will give a quick layman's guide as to how things will likely develop over the current optimum period, based on current output, to see some wintriness - from around 28th out to early February.  

In other words the Atlantic hits the block ( or the S*** hits the fan) proper around then - with any potential Arctic high and Atlantic ridge in place. 

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In other words the Atlantic hits the block ( or the S*** hits the fan) proper around then - with any potential Arctic high and Atlantic ridge in place. 

 

Best analogy of the winter....by far!

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