Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[Biggin]

Does make me laugh on here when snowfests are showing people saying no chance of verifying yet when wind, rain and zonal dross are showing winter is over and its a nailed on pattern for next 6 weeks

Quite agree with you., less than 10 days out . But these people also throw throw the EC32 in your face and treat it like the gospel. Some on here would be grateful for an explanation as to why it "wont happen" rather than posting their "hunches". Mods, this post will self destruct in 30 mins to save you any trouble

[MR EXTREMES]

although the strat charts show continued small warmings even at this moment theres warming going on,

but as you can see the vortex seems to move back into Greenland although id of thought its very difficult to model exact location of the vortex.

[Bristawl Si]

 

Tonight's GFS 18z pub run is proudly sponsored by Carlsberg, probably the finest beer in the world..authentic, daring and delicious..just like the 18z. Most crucially, lots of horizontal snow and drifting..cheers and good night :-)

If it was sponsored by the knat's pee, that is Carlsberg, it wouldn't be v good at all!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Why is GFS 0z pants in regards to your location, NW England, when it shows bursts of cold polar WNW maritime air, a wind direction that favours the region for potential wintriness when Ian Fergusson himself mentioned in a post before about the coldness of that flow?

If GFS 0z comes off i doubt you or me would be seeing much snow Mr D.

UKMO on the other hand...

[Weather-history]

Let's compare the models from a week ago for today

ECM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=14&mois=1&annee=2014&heure=12&archive=1&mode=1&ech=192&map=0

Too deep the low about 25mb, the block too far east and south

GFS

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=0&heure=0&jour=15&mois=1&annee=2014&archive=1

Again low too deep and the block too far south and east

GEM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=0&carte=0&archive=1&mois=1&heure=12&jour=15&annee=2014

Closer but the low a touch south and the centre of block is further east

JMA

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?jour=15&mois=1&annee=2014&heure=12&archive=1&mode=1&ech=168&map=&nh=0

Low too deep and the block further east,

[bluearmy]

interesting 00z runs - ukmo is brilliant for cold but alas i fear its just an illustration of the western extent of the envelope. gfs/ecm both in reasonable agreement re an extended trough (if true that well done gfs for spotting yesterday).  not sure whats going on thereafter - the mean trough dropping just east the favoured route but then that was true of  T168 when it was t240.

 

and ER, those are strat temps, not heights. no idea where the vortex is, or its shape, based on temps alone.

[MR EXTREMES]

Let's compare the models from a week ago for todayECMhttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=14&mois=1&annee=2014&heure=12&archive=1&mode=1&ech=192&map=0Too deep the low about 25mb, the block too far east and southGFShttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=0&heure=0&jour=15&mois=1&annee=2014&archive=1Again low too deep and the block too far south and eastGEMhttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=0&carte=0&archive=1&mois=1&heure=12&jour=15&annee=2014Closer but the low a touch south and the centre of block is further eastJMAhttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?jour=15&mois=1&annee=2014&heure=12&archive=1&mode=1&ech=168&map=&nh=0Low too deep and the block further east,

good post and as can be seen theres been a huge corrections west with heights and north !

and corrections with lows wanting to go southeast.

[MR EXTREMES]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-25839387

 

lets hope it stays there and does not move into Greenland.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

indeed when you look at the northern hemisphere charts it really is a nice chart although would be nice to see a stronger ridge into the arctic but its still good and for this to pop up at t144 still shows more potential.

now its how the vortex disrupts is it heading towards Greenland again because if its going to migrate over to this side of the hemisphere its going to find it hard with blocking to our northeast so lets see where the vortex settles.

as you can see the mother vortex is over the Russian side there is a small part of the vortex stretched from the Canadian side into the southern tip of Greenland but the block is stretching west and southwest into south eastern Greenland and along Iceland any strengthening of this block will only aid better disruption of the jet stream helping push lows more on a southeasterly direction this chart along with the jma are the best charts of the day already.

 

but given the volatile nature of the vortex this winter and continued uncertainty with in the models it still is 50/50 for us southern folk.

although very good for the northern and western areas.

daily express headlines half of the uk brought to a stand still as the vortex heads close to the uk lol.

With a core high of 1040 that is one strong high pressure. Also it's more about the shape and position of it , with it positioned as it is (murr sausage ) the low pressures will not be able to go through it , we can see the angle of the lows they are sinking southeast with our name on it . Risky but high reward, with cold air already in place the ukmo really is a snow fest this morning.

If you compare the two charts 120 and 144 we can see the high pressure moving southwest which moves it to a near perfect position to set up battles with us on the cold side .

Once the front passes through did we notice the cold 850's pushing in from the east ?

Folks please understand taking models from face value this is best run of the winter by ukmo , and what a model to show it because we all know if the ukmo doesn't show it , it usually doesn't happen , I'm not of course saying this is how it will happen , but it is setting us up for a very. Cold and snowy spell.

And for those that's not happy with the gfs ,

look at trends , not detail ,fronts disrupting against northern blocking ,pushing southeast , cold continent , snowy northwesterlies , warmings in the stratosphere , need I go on?

Really puzzled by people's reactions sometimes

[Tim Bland]

I wouldn't put too much faith in UKMO. According to its outputs early last week we should be entering an easterly phase right now following an undercut

[Frosty.]

I wouldn't put too much faith in UKMO. According to its outputs early last week we should be entering an easterly phase right now following an undercut

One way or another, it looks like becoming relatively colder than so far this winter with a higher risk of snow, frost & ice.

[Iceni]

The next person who mentions 'potential' will be on my blacklist... if the models are to be taken seriously, I'd be an expert on potential.

 

I'm looking out of the window, it's raining again. The rain might be a tad colder than last time it rained, but it's still definitely rain. It potentially might snow in the Caingorms tomorrow morning, but it doesn't affect the price of fish. I have a feeling that the models are off on their merry go round again... will it won't it? I'll believe it when I see it and snow and cold's incoming at 72h not 240h.

Edited January 22, 2014 by Iceni

[snowmadchrisuk]

The Models look pants this morning , r.e any Sustained Cold. I'm hoping we get some change show up within +144 hours, as there is a chance of a link up of height's still IMO. If out to +144 verify's then from there , the next 10 days has gone. People now saying there looking at Mid Feb , but these are the same posters that were saying Mid Jan. We will just have to wait and see , but I'm not going to listen to any forecast past 72 hours at the moment , 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

After reading a couple of other forums, I don't follow the models to much, but they are talking about the PV taking another dive into America and re starting that jet stream any thoughts? 

[Chris K]

One way or another, it looks like becoming relatively colder than so far this winter with a higher risk of snow, frost & ice.

 

Exactly Frosty - a higher risk is better than no risk . I think we are in a better position than what we have experienced this Winter so far. No guarentee of cold and snow of course, but even if it was not sustained, I think many would take just 1 day of the white stuff  I am so desperate I would be happy just to see some falling! However one important factor I feel is how the systems crossing the Atlantic interacts with that High to our NE and it really does look like a fine margin.

 

The models continue to hint at some form of undercut down the line. This may not mean snow for all...but if this were to eventually happen, I think the further NE you are in the UK, the more prone you might be to snow. I must admit I'm not especially confident with Low after Low modelled to brew in the Atlantic...but who knows..

 

So unfortunately before then, it looks like more rain is on the cards, coupled with strong winds for some. My area and I am sure like many others are still damp and sodden, so it is not welcome!

 

Finally,as Ian F posted earlier, certainly quite an important period of model watching coming up. If we are indeed approaching a 'tipping' point...that is something that could potentially send this forum into meltdown, or turn it into a graveyard I certainly don't want a continuation of westerly dominated pattern...more rain? bleurgh... 

Edited January 22, 2014 by Chris K

[picog]

After reading a couple of other forums, I don't follow the models to much, but they are talking about the PV taking another dive into America and re starting that jet stream any thoughts? 

I think the PV arrived in NE USA yesterday and dropped a foot of snow!

[Man With Beard]

I wouldn't put too much faith in UKMO. According to its outputs early last week we should be entering an easterly phase right now following an undercut

No! this is a very misleading comment! Last week, the UKMO was the most consistent model in pinpointing where the Scandi High and UK/Iceland trough would be for today. One of the runs was a bit more favourable for an easterly but even that one was still not that far off. Did you check the UKMO archives before you posted this?

[shedhead]

Another set of overnight runs resembling a dogs breakfast, with more questions posed than answers provided.  UKMO on the face of it looks good, but we have seen plenty of other decent charts from it in the 120-144hr range that have failed to deliver, so probably wise not to assume it will be right this time.  Despite more variations on a theme, the overall problem of getting the LP's (hate the term energy!) southeast of us before the next ones develop and move into mid Atlantic to cut off the potentially cold NE flow still exists. 

 

As I said yesterday the cold air hoofing off of NE Canada again looks set to provide near perfect conditions for LP development, as it as done for much of extended Autumn, so regretably I'm still seeing nothing to suggest that the block will win out. I still looks to me as if the best we can hope for overall is enough westward correction to stall the fronts across us, but even that looks a bit of a stretch at the moment, with a continuation of a broadly similar pattern to now probably being fave to close out Jan imo.

Edited January 22, 2014 by shedhead

[A.J]

The next person who mentions 'potential' will be on my blacklist... if the models are to be taken seriously, I'd be an expert on potential.

 

I'm looking out of the window, it's raining again. The rain might be a tad colder than last time it rained, but it's still definitely rain. It potentially might snow in the Caingorms tomorrow morning, but it doesn't affect the price of fish. I have a feeling that the models are off on their merry go round again... will it won't it? I'll believe it when I see it and snow and cold's incoming at 72h not 240h.

Perhaps the best thing to do is not to take the models at face value and not think to deeply about immediate snow and just wait and see what evolves  

[shedhead]

Perhaps the best thing to do is not to take the models at face value and not think to deeply about immediate snow and just wait and see what evolves  

Very clever aj...

 

Whilst those are wise words, the main problem is we've been doing precisely that since mid November. Unfortunately Winter does have a life span and as such the wait cannot go on indefinately.  Clearly with 6 weeks still to go we remain 'in with a chance', but it won't be too long before we reach a point of no return as far as proper winter cold is concerned.

 

Wouldn't mind a quid for every time the 'P' word has been used in here since November, but the fact remains absolutely none of it has yet been realised...note YET....

Edited January 22, 2014 by shedhead

[Frosty.]

Exactly Frosty - a higher risk is better than no risk . I think we are in a better position than what we have experienced this Winter so far. No guarentee of cold and snow of course, but even if it was not sustained, I think many would take just 1 day of the white stuff  I am so desperate I would be happy just to see some falling! However one important factor I feel is how the systems crossing the Atlantic interacts with that High to our NE and it really does look like a fine margin.

 

The models continue to hint at some form of undercut down the line. This may not mean snow for all...but if this were to eventually happen, I think the further NE you are in the UK, the more prone you might be to snow. I must admit I'm not especially confident with Low after Low modelled to brew in the Atlantic...but who knows..

 

So unfortunately before then, it looks like more rain is on the cards, coupled with strong winds for some. My area and I am sure like many others are still damp and sodden, so it is not welcome!

 

Finally,as Ian F posted earlier, certainly quite an important period of model watching coming up. If we are indeed approaching a 'tipping' point...that is something that could potentially send this forum into meltdown, or turn it into a graveyard I certainly don't want a continuation of westerly dominated pattern...more rain? bleurgh... 

Yes I agree, and the tipping point appears to be in the T+120 / 144 hours range which is much better than a long drawn out wait in the realms of FI. I think we are close to our first cold spell, especially via the stunning ukmo 0z slider low route, 

[Tim Bland]

No! this is a very misleading comment! Last week, the UKMO was the most consistent model in pinpointing where the Scandi High and UK/Iceland trough would be for today. One of the runs was a bit more favourable for an easterly but even that one was still not that far off. Did you check the UKMO archives before you posted this?

I take your point. I did say "unless I have a bad memory" which I know I do lol. I jut recall lots of excitement over the UKMO output last week and here we are with more rain and average temps. It "Could" be right but unless it is backed by other models I will keep my sledge in the shed!

[Gibby]

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday January 22nd 2014 and taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models continue the basic pattern of Low pressure to the NW and High to the SW and NE with a broad troughing down the North Sea. Through the period between now and the start of next week a series of troughs cross East over the UK, each bringing spells of rain and/or showers, heavy and prolonged at times and falling as snow at times over Northern hills, especially tomorrow. Friday and again on Sunday look likely to be the most wet days with flooding issues again becoming possible in places in blustery winds at times. Temperatures will be close to average but there will be some chilly days, most likely tomorrow and a few mild ones most notably on Friday as the rain pushes over.

 

GFS then shows next week as a very windy and unsettled one with further showers or longer spells of rain in a blustery WNW wind at times. Late in the week a drier interlude with lighter winds and night frosts look likely as a ridge of High pressure is shown to sink South behind a departing depression to the SE. The end frames of the run show no change with the Atlantic bandwagon of Low pressure continuing delivering rain at times in a blustery Westerly wind and average temperatures.

 

The GFS Ensembles show little change to the rather chilly and unsettled weather but it looks unlikely to turn very cold with most members maintaining average temperatures just below the long term mean. Rainfall looks like continuing to be a feature for all throughout the period but the amounts of rain trend downward with time, especially towards the South and SE.

 

UKMO closes it's run this morning with a deep Low pressure area over the NW next Monday sliding SSE down over the UK maintaining a very unsettled start to next week with showers and longer spells of rain likely for all areas in temperatures a little on the cool side with no doubt some hill snow at times in the North.

 

GEM too takes this depression down over the UK from the NW early next week with attendant rain and showers continuing for all before pressure rises slowly from the NW with colder weather with scattered wintry showers looking likely for a time before dry weather develops under a ridge of High pressure over Southern Britain late in the run with frosts at night.

 

NAVGEM shows the Low drifting South over the UK early next week, moving it quite slowly away while bringing further rain and showers. On the rear side of the Low a period of cold Easterly winds are shown when cold air moves in and could turn some of the rain to sleet and snow before it exits away South at least from Scotland.

 

ECM today shows the Low moving South on Wednesday with rain and showers for all. It is quickly followed by a strong Westerly flow with Low pressure areas crossing East to the North with further rain at times as troughs move ESE across the UK in the flow with yet more rain.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts this morning once again favour Low pressure to be to the North of the UK in 9 and 10 days time with a trough down the North Sea. It looks that as a result of this little overall change in the pattern of rain at times will continue as systems bump into the block over the Continent with the UK remaining on the Western side of the trough and therefore temperatures remaining near to or a little below normal at times in West or NW winds.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The Jet Stream Forecast today shows the flow strengthening at the weekend as it continues it's unrelenting path and trajectory over the Atlantic and down over the UK next week keeping the Atlantic Low pressure systems bumping into the block to the NE with some energy sliding SE and some NE and maintaining cold continental air at arms length across the other side of the North Sea.

 

In Summary this morning apart from some variations on a theme shown between various operational outputs this morning the basic pattern looks largely the same with a trend shown that doesn't offer much change to what we have now. All areas look at risk from further bouts of wind and rain as successive Low pressure areas cross the Atlantic and push their troughs across the UK before stalling them to the East. Most models do show a deep Low pressure area slipping South over the UK next week and some do show a brief flirtation with something rather colder on the rear side of the exiting depression but with the Atlantic still being driven by a strong West to East flow over the Atlantic on the Northern Flank of a strong Azores High it is only a matter of hours rather than days before milder Westerly winds and further rain return across the UK later next week.

[Downpour]

The next person who mentions 'potential' will be on my blacklist... if the models are to be taken seriously, I'd be an expert on potential. I'm looking out of the window, it's raining again. The rain might be a tad colder than last time it rained, but it's still definitely rain. It potentially might snow in the Caingorms tomorrow morning, but it doesn't affect the price of fish. I have a feeling that the models are off on their merry go round again... will it won't it? I'll believe it when I see it and snow and cold's incoming at 72h not 240h.

Well said that man. Another dank autumnal day in London and nothing anywhere near the reliable time frame, nor any model agreement.

[Downpour]

Very clever aj...

 

Whilst those are wise words, the main problem is we've been doing precisely that since mid November and unfortunately Winter does have a life span and as such the wait cannot go on indefinatly.  Clearly with 6 weeks still to go we remain 'in with a chance', but it won't be too long before we reach a point of no return as far as proper winter cold is concerned.

 

Wouldn't mind a quid for every time the 'P' word has been used in here since November, but the fact remains absolutely none of it has yet been realised...note YET....

One of the more insightful exchanges yesterday was between Fergie and Gibby, who pointed out we have baked in mild ground following week after dismal week of incessant rains. Could really do with some hard frosts to dry out and cool the land - otherwise any snowfall we do get will be wasted.