Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[fergieweather]

 

That wouldn't be the same CFS that quite often suggested a northerly blocked winter during the autumn by any chance?

I was going to say that the CFS support is hardly a badge of confidence, but desisted. In any case - it's all experimental stuff and I leave all that can of worms to the clever folks at Hadley Centre...!! Let's concentrate on the more reliable (!) timeframes.

[bluearmy]

 

The JMA does look good at 192, let's hope the ECM follow it.Just wondering, if the JMA is nowhere near as good as the GFS , ECM or UKMO why do they bother spending all their money using it?

 jma is yesterday's run beyond T84. who is spending what money using it ??as far as the output is concerned, nothing much has changed today. the slight correctio eastward on the 12z's illustrates that we are extremely unlikely to see further westward correction beyond what the 00z showed before the weekend. the troughs are also dropping a bit too far east at the moment on the mid range. there is, however, a spread west and we must hope that the general trend to correct the mid range westward continues. we do need to get them west of the uk so that we draw an undercutting flow ahead of the systems. dropping over the uk is no good as they likely contain too much pm air to deliver snowfall away from hills. east of the uk, as currently showing, brings lee norwesters/northerlies but i doubt this will be of too much interest unless the following system can approach further to the west and draw a continental flow ahead of it.

[A.J]

So then, lets recap on the past 2 hours model output 'debate' and I use that term advisedly for some of the 'debate'

 

Winter is over because the models said so..........good grief!  

[swfc]

So then, lets recap on the past 2 hours model output 'debate' and I use that term advisedly for some of the 'debate'

 

Winter is over because the models said so..........good grief!  

Well given thats all there is to go on i cant see another option?Dont think its a winters over point but a blind man on a galloping horse can see thinks dont look good imo but hey ho!!!!

[fergieweather]

 

*ping* sound of pin dropping

Winter you haven't been cancelled yet, no fret...just because the models says so?

My question and as already mentioned I.e., reliable time-frame..is another deep low incoming, there's the detail we need to be firming up on not Feb let alone March.

Concur, wholly. Much yet to watch for.

[supernova]

no I'm going by the met extended outlook. Ian's updates that the Atlantic taking charge again into next week. We been chasing cold since November on the charts. And I think it's time now to give it up for me anyway. The next 10 days on the charts and ensembles don't paint anything uk cold wide. So that takes us into feb. Sorry but just how I feel tonight think like I said Ian's update is a real kick in the teeth

Oh well that's it then, a non winter and warmest spring on record incoming! Really, unless GloSea5 is a crystal ball I hope you won't mind if I don't take your last few posts too seriously. Not saying you/they are wrong but honestly this constant doom and gloom is counter productive, factless and depressing. 

 

This is the the GEFS ensembles for London from the 12z run which as we all know was milder than only six hours previously. When every one of these lines consistently trends above +5 I'm up for calling it a day but until then can we at least stop pretending we know what the next six weeks may bring and try to offer a least a degree of constructive analysis, good or bad, rather than the constant pandering to defeatism. Fergieweather stated the MetO view is that after Friday there is good confidence for a return to a Westerly breakthrough, whatever that may bring, but the MetO have also been saying all week (Countryfile yesterday was a classic) that there is an enormous range of options on offer and little certainty as to the outcome much beyond a shorter than normal timescale. 

ECM now running and to me this chart at 144hrs has enormous promise, let's keep the candle burning for a while longer eh, there's time yet for an interesting end to the season so chin up...

[Tom Quintavalle]

 

There's some real knee jerk reactions in the MOD, Just over half way through Winter 

 

Lot's of potential from the N/W from the end of the week, we are not going to get an Easterly this time round, but it wont be back to the typical Atlantic we have had to endure so far this Winter, I expect lows to push further South this time round with a more disrupted Vortex pulling colder shot's of air down with them. Winter is far from over, unless you are expecting another 2010...

 

Would agree with this PM, was trying to put together a more detailed post but kept getting interrupted, clients are so inconsiderate! Anyway a much shortened version then and excuse the more garbled nature of this attempt!

One only has to look at the synoptic situation models are forecasting for 26th Jan., this time around, and compare them to the actual situation that was observed around about the same time, 5 years ago, in 2009.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012012/UN144-21.GIF?20-18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2009/archivesnh-2009-1-25-12-0.png

Obviously the NH synoptic profile not entirely the same but they do have similarities, the point being that its way too early to cry Winters over and who knows how the forecast models are going to look come this weekend/early next week, we may be looking at forecast charts by that time, showing scenarios more conducive to delivering a more wintry outlook to the UK, once we hit the early part of February, surely nobody can give a definitive answer to that poser yet?

Btw and for the record, this was the actual synoptic chart for around a week later, in Feb 2009.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2009/archivesnh-2009-2-1-12-0.png

After being on this forum since 2005, it still amazes me how many members still react in a knee jerk fashion to every frame, to every kink in an isobar! One wonders if when the football team you support concedes a goal, does this result in your TV ending up in your front garden?

After all its only the weather and there are plenty more things in life to worry about, in such a manic fashion.

Tom.

Edited January 20, 2014 by Kentish CZ

[IDO]

ECM at T168 going with similar pattern as GFS/GEM/GEFS:   for our neck of the woods.

 

However the NH profile is much more interesting:  

 

Will this make any difference to the UK weather?

[That ECM]

Think we need to be careful, we are fortunate to get the input from IF and he is giving us an update on what he is seeing in the models. Not the likely result we are wanting but let's not disappointment get in the way of being appreciative.

[SMU]

What a load of cr*p this thread is sometimes.

 

I suggest people review the updated JMA tonight

 

& probably the ECM in a few moments....

 

S

Edited January 20, 2014 by Steve Murr

[Cloud 10]

Lets hope today's JMA looks similar. 

 

ECM's turn now.

 

The JMA has certainly "delivered" this evening. 

 

[fergieweather]

 

What a load of cr*p this thread is sometimes.

 

I suggest people review the updated JMA tonight

 

& probably the ECM in a few moments....

 

S

Indeed. JMA keeps grasping that baton from this time yesterday, huh, Steve. Interesting.

[bluearmy]

 

What a load of cr*p this thread is sometimes. I suggest people review the updated JMA tonight  & probably the ECM in a few moments.... S

 beat me to it steve. thats the westward correction we need to see and its the ecm op from a couple of days ago. there were a cluster of ecm ens that went in this direction on yesterdays chart and the spreads from this morning were equally wide in where the trough drops.

[weather eater]

 I'm bemused because no update today has been anything really at odds with expectations expressed over last 48hrs re *likely* outcomes over next few days? Yes, the odd bit of transient wintry interest, for sure; varied uncertainties further ahead albeit it's issues of whatever runs through a westerly pattern and how (i.e. offering somewhat more northerly components at times during next 10-15d); thus passing colder phases with mostly hill snow (as per UKMO updates)... I can't see anything has drastically changed in the currently available 12z output to warrant 'kick in the teeth' analogies? Or maybe I missed something earlier in the thread re expectations - I don't know.

I think you misunderstand your power Ian, anything you say that hints at a cold outlook is seized upon like a starving squirrel looking for its nuts and everything you say that hints it may not be cold is viewed much the same way. You may not be the man from uncle but you are viewed as the man from the METO you have a sort of deity status.

 

I think Steve might well be right about the ECM, trouble is does anyone trust output post 144hr, I learnt not to about 7 years ago, whatever it says tonight post 144hr  it will change that projection.

Edited January 20, 2014 by weather eater

[Long haul to mild]

I imagine Ian must tear his hair out at some of the interpretations of his posts. Perhaps someone could point to one where he has "written off winter", "thrown in the towel" or stated that there will be no snow for the UK during February?

 

As far as I am aware, he has given his thoughts on the next ten days or so based on current model runs and UKMO updates, which let's face it, barely takes us past the end of Jan, and he will be the first to agree I'm sure that weather patterns can, and do regularly change.

 

So, PLEASE can we stop the silly dramatic reactions, because they ruin the thread for those of us trying to improve our knowledge.

[IDO]

No surprise that the GFS 12z had the jet too far north, the op is clearly an outlier on several graphs:

 

 

 

The pressure charts almost certainly outside the standard deviation for that metric.

 

But overall it is similar to recent runs.

 

 

ECM at T192 looks good synoptically:  

 

But the 850s are average: 

[Mucka]

What a load of cr*p this thread is sometimes.

 

I suggest people review the updated JMA tonight

 

& probably the ECM in a few moments....

 

S

 

Certainly close synoptically with each other but JMA is a fair bit further West by 168h. 

Not sure if Ian read my earlier post and chose to ignore it because it does not deal with the time-frames the UKMO like to deal in but how that low disrupts SE and how efficiently along with how amplified the upstream pattern are will dictate whether we see a wintry end to January or not - that is where the real prospects for cold lie and have done for quite some time so not sure why people are calling Winter over based on a small Eastward correction at 96 or 120h or whether it is rain/sleet or snow they will see in TBY on Friday.

Edited January 20, 2014 by Mucka

[sunnijim]

The JMA has certainly "delivered" this evening. 

 

JN192-21.gif

Certainly a model (JMA) thats worth watching from now on imo.In case anyone missed the post by Ian F yesterday,its a model "held in high regard" by the Met office.His explanation as to why made a great deal of sense.Never bothered viewing it myself,but will now.

Worth noting for those that are giving themselves nervous breakdowns over various GFS runs which i believe is considered something of a joke.

[SMU]

 Indeed. JMA keeps grasping that baton from this time yesterday, huh, Steve. Interesting.

Very interesting-

 

All that I have observed in the last 24 / 3 hours ( apart from the incremental adjustments west in the short term ) was how progressive the models had been in building the arctic high across the pole, now however its coming to fruiting just a lagged day behind.

 

Expect a lot of volatility over the next 72 hours.- with so much jet alignment NW SE over the next 10 days it will very unlikely that one of these events doesn't occur in the right locale for the UK ( IE not to far East)

 

S

Edited January 20, 2014 by Steve Murr

[phil nw.]

We have moved some moaning posts over to the other thread here-

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78680-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-winter-201314/

 

If anyone else wants to declare Winter's over in the middle of January with such a modeled Northern hemisphere profile then please post in that other thread.

It does get tiresome having to remove these comments.

 

Thanks all.

[bluearmy]

 

Love the optimism Steve, but when Ian comes on and says all roads lead to westerlies then it's difficult to keep the faith.

 i suspect ian was referring to the fact that exeter are comfortable that we will look west for our weather beyond the weekend and not east. there were still some ens runs which dropped a trough into europe and brought a weak easterly flow.

[pandit-scholar]

Interesting from the ECM. There's an arctic high, the question is will the piece of PV remove itself from Greenland to allow heights to build into there in the final two frames.

Edited January 20, 2014 by pandit-scholar

[Paul White.]

From joe b on twitter

@BigJoeBastardi: Worst GFS ensemble run ever 10 days ago on right for Jan 25, vs latest. #epicfail of US model http://t.co/ooKlm1N4b4

I thought I would throw this in to help people that believe the GFS is the worlds best globel model.

Tonight's debate in here is astonishing. Writing off winter half way through is crazy toys out of prams and dummies being spat out allover the place. A tiny bit of me hopes that this winter is over and the people that say they are giving up leave the thread until next winter. I'm just a tad fed up of reading depressing posts its tediousness and annoying.

[radiohead]

Well at least the deep lows on the ECM are tracking to our north, so we'll be spared the worst of the wind and rain from these depressions as long as those tracks don't start shifting south.

 

 

Edited January 20, 2014 by radiohead

[IDO]

JMA Verification for up till November 2013. Quite impressive: