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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

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OK then a new thread to continue with discussions on the 12z runs  and the imminent 18z GFS run.

 

We are still awaiting any widespread Wintry weather and i know many of us are searching each run for signs of this.

Please though try to keep your views on topic and remember the other thread for moans and ramps so we can keep this one more factual and informative.

Off the cuff or impolite comments are not welcome.

 

Thanks all-continue below

Edited by phil nw.
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18z running now and hopefully a westward correction this time!!

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Now if that came to fruition this place would go into meltdown!!At least it would lift doom and gloom merchants!Posted Image

Nah, too much snow, too cold, it hasn't snowed in Plymouth Posted Image

 

One thing to look for on the pub run is an Arctic high actually existing in the latter half of high resolution. That would be a start, oh and a pinch of westward correction in the early timeframes.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Thus far according to 18z gfs pv) southern Greenland may on this run do major favour, shunning Atlantic south south east and gaining tilt alignment, for your westward correct short mid term.but its one run.bht hey trends are whats need looking for!

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For those in thread that are not aware and that want to view all output in one day from all global sources,ie, GFSUKMO Etc . You can view all on one screen (Tile Effect) Handy for the learning type like myself....Also it shows the inconsistencies in output,Patterns etc etc like we have now. Although NW as whole offers waves of info,The link below is just another addition to your library.  

 

Hope it helps. Posted Image

 

 http://www.meteociel...=8&ech=6&size=1

 

 

Brilliant link, thanks 

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Well there are stronger scandi heights on the 18z which is better and forcing things further south and west

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18z running now and hopefully a westward correction this time!!

About 100kms further west at 108 by my reckoning.

Edited by Whether Idle

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Its all FI now but the weather Thursday Friday is trending colder IMHO.

Edited by Whether Idle
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Re JMA (as queried in previous thread): yes, held in very positive regard by many I've asked at UKMO, not least because it was created to cater for the tricky forecast demands of a rather small insular nation bounded by continental & oceanic influences (sound familiar?). Doesn't mean it's right this time, of course... but the JMA (in organisational sense) are very well respected, as are their products.

fergie are things for the end of the coming week finely balanced or does it look like mild will win out?
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Re JMA (as queried in previous thread): yes, held in very positive regard by many I've asked at UKMO, not least because it was created to cater for the tricky forecast demands of a rather small insular nation bounded by continental & oceanic influences (sound familiar?). Doesn't mean it's right this time, of course... but the JMA (in organisational sense) are very well respected, as are their products.

I'll be looking at that model in a different light now you've put it that way, thanks, nice to hear a professional view on things, instead of a personal viewPosted Image

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Its all FI now but the weather Thursday Friday is trending colder IMHO.

Agreed,historically the warmer sector shown will be squeezed until it vanishes and so does the precipitation.

A good sign that the block will fight back.

fergie are things for the end of the coming week finely balanced or does it look like mild will win out?

Get countryfile on the i player.Posted Image Sorry mods

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Upstream the GFS 18hrs run has trended to the Euros, not as quick here to breakdown the Pacific Ridge. Earlier a bit more influence from the Scandi high but still too much energy spilling east.

Edited by nick sussex

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Agreed,historically the warmer sector shown will be squeezed until it vanishes and so does the precipitation.

A good sign that the block will fight back.

Get countryfile on the i player.Posted Image Sorry mods

 

Blocks to the east almost always out do the Atlantic onslaught predictions. No doubt the Atlantic will win out because of the strength of the PV, but a few surprises are in store i think.

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fergie are things for the end of the coming week finely balanced or does it look like mild will win out?

Exeter's detailed assessment due with us in the next hour (out to T+144).
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Well GFS has backed a little westward this evening for the back end of the working week.

During the weekend we have a differnt theme of the Azores high still ridging over us, but it looks a fair bit more amplified upstream and the energy from the northwest is approaching us, at what looks to me a more favourable angle.. Lets see....

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Exeter's detailed assessment due with us in the next hour (out to T+144).

 

Look forward to that update if it's available to us. 

 

Invaluable as always

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This just highlights the importance of that ridge in the east Pacific, if that goes as it did in the 12hrs then the PV will just get shunted too quickly eastwards as the pattern will then flatten out across the central USA, this run is more in line with expectations and NCEP thoughts.

 

The next point of contention is the Azores high, can it amplify enough to delay that ejection of upstream energy?

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You know what... The 18z Gfs is in the same ballpark as the JMA... be interesting to see the next couple of frames..

Well maybe not as pleasant on the eye as the JMA 192, but their not a million miles apart...

Edited by TSNWK
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