Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[cooling climate]

Must admit the 18z FI seems to be playing out the way I would expect to see

things evolve due to the strat warming as we move on into February.

[bluearmy]

Note in fi gfs that the Canadian vortex looks a tad ropey until the Siberian side chucks some replenishment across the pole. Suddenly, it's reinvigorated. We need to hope that the split manages to prevent a lobe of vortex being exchanged from Siberia. That should, in theory, see the Canadian vortex remain subdued. Don't hold your breath on that one though!

EDIT: though as cc comments, both parts of the split look decidedly groggy in deep fi. That would be a result!

Edited January 22, 2014 by bluearmy

[Bobby]

Zonal express all the way on the 18z, nowt much else to say. Bring a brolly.

 

Very wet end to the month, ending much as it started, 100mm plus over the hills in the West, could be a record breaking wet January with flooding again hitting the headlines.

 

 

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

So after 2 days of runs I am calling the 18z NAVGEM in partner ship with the UKMO seems the likely form horse. From here out to 144. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=180&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0S

We can't really tell which one is likely to be right at the minute , everything up for grabs it seems but i truly hope anything happens other than the gfs 18's , what a load of crap . Does my flippin nut in when it does this , and before anyone shoots me down no I'm not dis'n it because i don't like it, I'm dis's it cause it's known for dragging its heals and refusing to fit into a pattern that looks plausible . I'm not sure what the reasons behind the gfs doing this time and time again but it's absolutely Jank at patterns that breaks the norm . Ie , HLB

[J10]

Zonal express all the way on the 18z, nowt much else to say. Bring a brolly.

 

Very wet end to the month, ending much as it started, 100mm plus over the hills in the West, could be a record breaking wet January with flooding again hitting the headlines.

 

 

Not quite the whole picture, it is more a cold zonal theme, and on hills especially at least some of that precipitation is more likely to be of a white nature rather than a wet one.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Not quite the whole picture, it is more a cold zonal theme, and on hills especially at least some of that precipitation is more likely to be of a white nature rather than a wet one.

 

Yep, it wasn't really correct & wasn't the whole picture as you say. Just look where the 528 DAM is in that Cold flow. Would be wintry for quite a few places.

 

But none the less, it's FI and won't stay like that.

 

[Gibby]

Tonight's Fax Charts are indeed very worrying for much of Britain let alone the SW and quite honestly without all the rain that has fallen recently they would raise a few eyebrows of environment agencies and the like even after a spell of average rainfall.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t48

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t60

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t72

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t84

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t96

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

 

Apologies for the bad links. You can scroll to all charts from one page.

Edited January 22, 2014 by Gibby

[bluearmy]

wasn't expecting the London ens to be quite as chilly as they are though week 2. Incidentally, the op run at th top of the ens for temps throughout.

Given the number of cold clutters surging through week 2 against the ens mean to day 16, I'm intrigued. 30/31st and 1st look pretty cold!

[TEITS]

Im not surprised to see the fax back the UKMO model.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif?22-12

 

E,ly following the LP sinking SE is looking favourite right now. Beyond and its difficult to say except it looks as though it will remain unsettled which isn't good news whether it falls as rain or snow.

 

My hunch is that the outlook could well be colder and more wintry than some are expecting. Shall explain more tomorrow morning.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I'm getting concerned about the amount of rainfall that could fall with the current synopsis for the next week. I hope they change and the Azores high could have more of an influence by ridging with the scandinavian high.

[SMU]

Just to compound the problem with the low & associated rain & wind field is the trend from today is to take the track further south towards Scotland-

 

This is because the models are now picking up on the +VE pressure to the north ( more than perhaps they first estimated), if this continues then the JMA worse case scenario-

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014012212/J96-21.GIF?22-12

 

Deep low, storm force Westerlies, suddenly swinging gale force Easterlies....

 

Rain followed by snow for the North.

 

S

ALSO MAKE A MENTAL NOTE OF THE VERY LOW HEIGHTS INTO CENTRAL EUROPE AS THATS KEY

Edited January 22, 2014 by Steve Murr

[draztik]

Yup, Gibby, I see the MetO have a weather warning for the entire GB & NI for Sunday - can't say I have ever seen the entire UK nations covered with a blanket warning, 4 days out! Obviously worrying.

 

As Bobby indicates, the 18z looks very zonal! The ext ecm ensembles are also rather unpleasant tonight, so the short term looks wet, be it rain or wet snow... and mid term -attached, it looks like more of the same, though hopefully not as destructive as the coming weekend, if the models are right. We just cant get rid of these lower heights to our NW! And until that happens, the chances of settled and 'colder' weather looks unlikely. I do hope we see a shift in the models soon.

 

day 10-15 heights ecm

Edited January 22, 2014 by draztik

[karlos1983]

Not a bad set for cold as ba pointed out (London)

Edited January 22, 2014 by karlos1983

[fergieweather]

Im not surprised to see the fax back the UKMO model. http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif?22-12 E,ly following the LP sinking SE is looking favourite right now. Beyond and its difficult to say except it looks as though it will remain unsettled which isn't good news whether it falls as rain or snow. My hunch is that the outlook could well be colder and more wintry than some are expecting. Shall explain more tomorrow morning.

Indeed. UKMO are happy with their 12z GM and run with it unmodified on this occasion.

[Bobby]

Yup, Gibby, I see the MetO have a weather warning for the entire GB & NI for Sunday - can't say I have ever seen the entire UK nations covered with a blanket warning, 4 days out! Obviously worrying.

 

As Bobby indicates, the 18z looks very zonal! The ext ecm ensembles are also rather unpleasant tonight, so the short term looks wet, be it rain or wet snow... and mid term -attached, it looks like more of the same, though hopefully not as destructive as the coming weekend, if the models are right. We just cant get rid of these lower heights to our NW! And until that happens, the chances of settled and 'colder' weather looks unlikely. I do hope we see a shift in the models soon.

 

day 10-15 heights ecm

 

This winter really has been a long hard slog of model watching if looking for cold and snow, just stuck in rut. Every chance February can come to our rescue though, ideally we want to see signs of something substanial brewing in the models at the end of January, might start getting a bit worried otherwise...

 

C'mon February, you can do it.

Edited January 22, 2014 by Bobby

[draztik]

This winter really has been a long hard slog of model watching if looking for cold and snow, just stuck in rut. Every chance February can come to our rescue though, ideally we want to see signs of something substanial brewing in the models at the end of January, might start getting a bit worried otherwise...

 

C'mon February, you can do it.

 

I think its our final shot at a winter! The 12z control run from ECM shows a series of lows sweeping us during days 10-15, very decemberish. I would take mild and sunny for all of February over what we have had to endure. Enough already!

[georgiedre]

Indeed. UKMO are happy with their 12z GM and run with it unmodified on this occasion.

What's yours and mets take on how things may pan out after the initial low pressure fergie?

[Frosty.]

Wish you worked for the met office steve, I would enjoy your interpretation of the 6-15 day trend period. As for the models, in one way or another we appear to be on course for a colder spell with a higher chance of snow, ice and frosts.

[Eskimo]

Why isn't there a combined pressure and 850 temperature map available to the public? Instead of course having two separate maps. 

[The Eagle]

UKMO will provide plenty of happy forumers later today i'm sure.

 

 

 

Edited January 23, 2014 by The Eagle

[ZONE 51]

Why isn't there a combined pressure and 850 temperature map available to the public? Instead of course having two separate maps. 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=t85p&HH=168&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=

Edited January 23, 2014 by ElectricSnowStorm

[SMU]

GFS is waking up to the euros with a 48 hour snow event at 168-200 over the central belt & northern areas after the atlantic hits the buffers....

 

 

UKMO.... not out yet eagle?

S

[The Eagle]

It's out alright

 

http://meteociel.com/ukmo/runs/2014012300/UN144-21.GIF?23-05

[SMU]

Just getting link broken.

 

is your image saying 00z.

[The Eagle]

Yes. It's out. Here it is.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&carte=1021&ech=6&archive=0

 

 

(Not on WZ yet though it will look even better there)

Edited January 23, 2014 by The Eagle