Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[Strider]

I would like to take a minute to highlight the ECM a minute where I think it looses the plot .

This is the 144 chart

image.jpg

Notice the high pressure the northeast has a core of 1040. Everything looking good going forward , yes a distinct vortex toward Canada ,but it looks poised to head toward a wintry pattern from there , but instead we go to this

image.jpg

we still have a very strong high but it's sinking , and the vortex is between the two pieces is rapidly joining forces again , yes we still have energy going southeast but it's game over from that point in my opinion , but it's far too progressive in the way it dictates the sinking of the high pressure .

 

So in other words it loses the plot precisely where it does what you don't want it to do?

 

It seems to be on a bit of a knife edge hence the constant flip flopping of the OPs. The GFS ensemble mean has a chilly period for a couple of days at the end of the month but nothing spectacular, which seems to be the form horse for me. A slider into central Europe followed by a reassertion from the Atlantic/Azores

[Summer Sun]

Some over zealous moderation?

Posts have gone missing discussing the ECM evolution and its likelihood of verifying?

 

If its gone have a look here: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78680-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-winter-201314/page-56#entry2902603 some have gone in there

[The Eagle]

I'm sorry but something just looks wrong on the ECM 12z, what I don't know but I don't buy that overly progressive and rapid westerly attack & collapse of the heights. Maybe some sort of error? 

 

It's called the jet stream and it has been, give or take, in the same position in the north Atlantic since the start of November - strongest for years. It's not going anywhere for the forseeable future so it's not getting any better for coldies unfortunately. What we are looking at, at best, is very transient short coldish spells for the next 2 weeks.

 

We need to see serious trough disruption and upstream amplification and also we need to see the Azores high displaced. All the positioning is completely wrong. 

 

I think most here familiar with this and the situation currently know themselves that it's going to be a long haul for any sort of sustained cold which is a pipe dream right now.

 

Something really big has to give and I don't see it myself. All the same maybe a miracle will occur and the variables start to turn in our favour. Fingers crossed.

[Ali1977]

Although by no means set in stone, I'm a little disappointed by this afternoons runs, with the GFS showing many good ENS I was hoping for something a little better from the ECM, and from the METO. Hopefully the ECM Ens still show plenty of cold later on...

[Frosty.]

The Ecm is consistantly inconsistant but so are all the models.  Just move on  to the 00z ...this is not a deal breaker tonight, l mean, it's not as if the met office outlook is wintry.

[Bobby]

a very poor run from ECM, and has shocked me to the core tbh throughout.

 

12z ECM shouldn't be a shock, is consistent with the 00z mean at +240 (and throughout really)

 

Op:   Mean:

Edited January 21, 2014 by Bobby

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

So in other words it loses the plot precisely where it does what you don't want it to do? :)It seems to be on a bit of a knife edge hence the constant flip flopping of the OPs. The GFS ensemble mean has a chilly period for a couple of days at the end of the month but nothing spectacular, which seems to be the form horse for me. A slider into central Europe followed by a reassertion from the Atlantic/Azores

O yes that's exactly right , I have no clue and no point.Look for yourself and them make your conclusion . I'm going from experience , and it doesn't take a genius to see it's far too progressive and unrealistic Edited January 21, 2014 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[IDO]

12z ECM shouldn't be a shock, is consistent with the 00z mean at +240

 

Op:   Mean:

 

Quite. Its nice to see the ECM op actually fall within a cluster rather than being an outlier that promises snow/cold but never delivers.

 

We can now compare it to the GFS clusters.

 

ECM op at T240:   GFS clusters at T252: 

 

It ties in with the 30% cluster of the GEFS. So that D10 chart from ECM has a good chance of verifying and looks to be representative.

[Staffordshire]

Still, no 'cold spell/snap' potential seems to make it past the +100h mark, the same way it has been for the whole of winter really, I am getting a bit tired of watching the models really (although i will still watch them everyday without fail) I'm not saying the potential isn't there before I get people saying I am giving a depressing feel to the thread, yes the potential is certinally there it just dosent seem to be getting any closer.

[Frosty.]

There has been a recurring theme over the last few days for the 00z runs to be more wintry and then the 12z downgrades it, I assume it's just coincidence.

[Purga]

A disappointing ECM heralding a return to zonality after a brief flirtation with a colder pattern

 

 

 

Most concern will be with upcoming wet and stormy conditions on top of saturated ground rather than the odd bit of transitory sleet here and there.

 

GFS illustrates well

 

Later on the next system brings this

 

 

 

Not a lasting cold signal at all at the moment just wet, wet, wet.

Edited January 21, 2014 by Purga

[Downpour]

Still, no 'cold spell/snap' potential seems to make it past the +100h mark, the same way it has been for the whole of winter really, I am getting a bit tired of watching the models really (although i will still watch them everyday without fail) I'm not saying the potential isn't there before I get people saying I am giving a depressing feel to the thread, yes the potential is certinally there it just dosent seem to be getting any closer.

And therein lies the problem - yet a snowless winter is indeed a rare beast so one assumes, as your signature says, the weather will repay its debts. Certainly the rain account is swelling at the moment - the snow account is massively overdrawn...

[Strider]

O yes that's exactly right , I have no clue and no point.Look for yourself and them make your conclusion . I'm going from experience , and it doesn't take a genius to see it's far too progressive and unrealistic

 

Despite the fact it's very similar to the 00z mean ensemble as others have pointed out. Are they (plus the GFS) all unrealistic too? Plus the METO...

 

Btw, I am not trying to make a personal attack here. I just think after a winter of grave disappointment people need to be realistic about what they are seeing. If you check the model thread back in December you'll see plenty of posts convinced that bitter cold is just around the corner and the models have got it wrong...

[Stuie]

Regarding possible snow at the end of the week, very good wet bulb levels and dew points.

But there is no precipitation that coincides with the above charts. Below is when there is and just isn`t happening on this GFS run.

 

Edit: I do want snow.

Edited January 21, 2014 by StuieW

[Frosty.]

Well the GEFS 12z control run would bring snow, frost & ice to large parts of the uk, synoptically it looks very wintry for a while and something to build on for sure, the outlook is not going to be decided tonight and I think we are at least in with a shout of winter finally showing itself.

[tight isobar]

Regarding possible snow at the end of the week, very good wet bulb levels and dew points.

But there is no precipitation that coincides with the above charts. Below is when there is and just isn`t happening on this GFS run.

 

Edit: I do want snow.

And thats just the issue timings, as a small island with the massive atlantic and major land spread continent, we are prone to missing the jackpot.the smallest interference will have massive implications, and we end up in a Bermuda triangle, where east and even west of ourselves are shivering and we are soaked looking on in no man's land.this is a large reason as we face the models go into under drive, then overdrive all to often.

[bluearmy]

the ecm at day 10 is not like the mean (no euro trough and all the energy has gone ne rather than splitting), nor is it like the 30% cluster on the gefs.  (the gefs has the azores high displaced north and laying across as an mlb) 

 

the ecm 12z op from two days ago was very progressive as per this run and it was an outlier. i suspect this has some support but it not the favoured solution.

Edited January 21, 2014 by bluearmy

[ANYWEATHER]

The cold block to our Northeast does not go anywhere in a hurry ,but at the same time does not do the Uk  any favours for anything significantly wintry. Upgrades to the jet stream though in the days ahead with some strong cyclogenesis . Stormy conditions, are likely again with copious amounts of rain with a good dose of rPM air at times to see something wintry especially on high ground even in the south. The main concern which has been highlighted by some members is that rainfall again will be of concern along with the potential of some damaging winds, As for the bottled up cold to our NorthEast we will once again have to sit and wait, as computer models still have the age old problem of the "East and West battle" ! Anyway .a lot of just about "Anyweather" to get through in the next 10 days! 

[Mucka]

Quite. Its nice to see the ECM op actually fall within a cluster rather than being an outlier that promises snow/cold but never delivers.

 

We can now compare it to the GFS clusters.

 

ECM op at T240: ECM1-240 (6).gif  GFS clusters at T252: Screenshot_21_01_2014_19_31.png

 

It ties in with the 30% cluster of the GEFS. So that D10 chart from ECM has a good chance of verifying and looks to be representative.

 

Hi IDO.

 

Two problems with that for me. The first is that we should only really compare the ECM among its own ensembles and against other Op's

The second is that the clusters that represent 70% of the output show a  displaced Azores high so even if you put ECM into the cluster that does not it still wouldn't be representative of a good majority of the output.

Given GFS is generally more progressive than ECM we can expect the ECM ensembles to likely back the displaced Azores high clusters more strongly so on balance would say the ECM Op will likely have even less support from within its own ensemble suit.

 

Edit

 

Just read Bluearmy's comment stating much the same thing, I think it is fair comment.

Edited January 21, 2014 by Mucka

[Frosty.]

Let's wipe the slate clean and look forward to the 18z and 00z, even if the ecm 12z had been a stonker like the 00z, it doesn't mean it would verify, so let's move on. onwards and upwards,

[bobbydog]

I'm sorry but something just looks wrong on the ECM 12z, what I don't know but I don't buy that overly progressive and rapid westerly attack & collapse of the heights. Maybe some sort of error? 

 

hmm... i'm not sure wrong is the right word, odd maybe.

 

the scandi high stays roughly in-situ up to +120 when it links up to the arctic high-

 

 

all good so far. then at +144 we see the LP system going in the right direction. at this point, ironically, it seems as if we dont want trough disruption, (yet) as the low is barrelling off in the right direction, to allow the atlantic high to ridge in towards the scandi high.

 

 

then at +168, well.... whats happened here??

 

 

this chart should be showing (or we would like it to be!) the trough stalling and disrupting over europe with the atlantic ridge joining up with the scandi high, giving us an easterly. except we see the trough implode into a fart, a short wave then appears out of nowhere, to cut off the ridge and the scandi high cant be bothered and gives up! it doesn't seem right.

 

maybe "wrong" is the right word after all.......

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

I've watched all the dashed hopes for cold this winter and I must admit that I thought the chances of getting a cold winter were remote. as far as I can see, the QBO is negative and therefore gives the polar vortex a boost. The oscillations we have seen this year have all been over the western hemisphere so the US has had some spectacular weather. I think that this year we'll have a dud

next year on the other hand. ...

Edited January 21, 2014 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[Stuie]

The cold block to our Northeast does not go anywhere in a hurry ,but at the same time does not do the Uk any favours for anything significantly wintry. Upgrades to the jet stream though in the days ahead with some strong cyclogenesis . Stormy conditions, are likely again with copious amounts of rain with a good dose of rPM air at times to see something wintry especially on high ground even in the south. The main concern which has been highlighted by some members is that rainfall again will be of concern along with the potential of some damaging winds, As for the bottled up cold to our NorthEast we will once again have to sit and wait, as computer models still have the age old problem of the "East and West battle" ! Anyway .a lot of just about "Anyweather" to get through in the next 10 days!

I will pretend I didn't see that mess. Bloody hell why does the jet have to pinpoint us and not lets say mid France.

As I said, I haven't seen this.

Edited January 21, 2014 by StuieW

[geordiekev]

Some nice big flakes on bbc 2 winter watch now. Caught the crew by surprise I think from what they said at the beginning regarding their met forecast. Hopefully the next few days may take us all by surprise as very much up in the air until the low passes.

[Gibby]

Good evening. Here is the report from the 12 midday outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday January 21st 2014.

 

All models show an unsettled and changeable period between now and the start of next week. A band of rain is shown to be currently crossing the UK with clearer and more showery weather following on behind. Tomorrow will see the front bringing the rain only slowly clearing away East out into the North Sea with the rain clearing slowly. Elsewhere a showery West or NW flow blows with showers forming in organized bands both tomorrow and Thursday. By Friday a new trough delivers more appreciable wind and rain through the day and this will be repeated on Sunday with Saturday being the best of the weekend days with sunshine and showers most likely. Throughout this period temperatures will be up and down but never overly cold or mild over the period.

 

GFS tonight then shows next week and indeed beyond unsettled and occasionally windy with showers and longer spells of rain continuing in generally West or NW winds with a few brief Northerly incursions for some pepping up the potential for wintry showers at times but never substantial away from the high ground of the North.

 

The GFS Ensembles are nothing exceptional tonight whatever your preferences should be with plenty of unsettled weather with rain at times blown in on pressure systems crossing the Atlantic and reaching the UK via the West or NW. Temperatures look a smidgen below average overall sufficiently enough for some snow on high ground of the North at times but generally of little consequence.

 

UKMO starts the new week off with deep Low pressure moving ESE towards Scotland with a cool and showery WNW flow over the UK with some heavy showers perhaps with hail and thunder and snow over high ground in the North.

 

GEM shows the Low over Scotland next Monday sinking South over the UK and down into Europe with cold and showery weather with some hill snow at times. Late in the run continuing changeable weather seems likely as further troughs move across from the West and NW with more rain and temperatures returning to average.

 

NAVGEM pushes complex Low pressure out to the NW on Monday South over the UK with showers and longer spells of rain continuing well into the middle of next week.

 

ECM also continues changeable weather through next week with rain or showers at times, probably heavy and persistent at first but with increasingly lengthy drier periods between the rain bands later in the week as the slightly chilly conditions revert towards more average temperatures by the end of the run as winds turn Westerly.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts which I highly regard when looking at the probabilities of where we will be standing in 9 and 10 Days time have remained rock solid with the current pattern for what seems an age now and tonight's charts are no exception. In 9 or 10 days time it looks like we will still be staring down the barrel of a stand off between High pressure to the NE and SW with the UK lying on the Western periphery of a North Sea trough with continuing spells of rain and showers in West or NW winds and temperatures near or a fraction below average.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The Jet Stream continues to show very little change in trajectory and course over the coming few weeks as it continues to cross the Atlantic before turning South over the UK towards Southern Europe and then East over the Med. The flow does strengthen for a time next week.

 

In Summary there remains little chance of any significant dry weather over the course of the output tonight. There will again be plenty of rain in areas that could well do without it. For those looking for cold weather there seems little sign of that either tonight with the pattern that we have now remaining in situ for some considerable time to come. However, having said that the air that crosses the UK on the rear of exiting depressions could well be cold enough for some snowfall on hills, especially in the North but once more tonight there seems little sign of any meaningful cold and snowfall.