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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

    right here we go again

     

    tonight

     

    Posted Image

    no wind

     

    weak south west to north west flow

     

    temps

     

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

    cold and a frost most regions

     

    the exception is the far north east which looks very misty and foggy

     

    fog may be an issue tomorrow morning for rural and coastal areas

     

    hence the gritters due to ice risk

     

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

     

    tomorrow

     

    Posted Image

    a weak south west flow

     

    rain

     

    Posted Image

     

    none

     

    got a feeling fog may persist north-north east of our region for a while

     

    temps

    Posted Image

     

    around 6 degrees

     

    colder where fog sticks

     

    i would call colder here but wind direction should help keep temps up

     

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

     

    tomorrow night

     

    Posted Image

    a breezy south west flow

     

    rain not here yet at midnight

     

    Posted Image

    but not far away

    Posted Image

     

    becoming persisant and quie heavy

     

    watch for flood warnings now

     

    temps

     

    Posted Image

    around 4-5 degrees

     

    if out it will not feel pleasant

     

    a lovely walk to work for me on wednesday morning :(

     

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

     

    wednesday

    Posted Image

     

    a cold north west to west flow

     

    note the front still stuck over us

     

    rain

     

    Posted Image

    should finally ease off just after lunch

     

    but more rain but not as heavy during the afternoon

     

    temps

     

    Posted Image

    around 5-7 degrees

     

    feeling raw

     

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

     

    wednesday night

     

    Posted Image

    a cold north west flow

     

    rainfall

    Posted Image

     

    looks dry and cold most areas

     

    but trough on the fax could cross overnight causing some showers

     

    temps

    Posted Image

     

    where the skys clear it will get cold

     

    ice may be an issue and fog also

     

    keep watch for tomorrows update

     

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

     

    thursday

     

    Posted Image

     

    a very cold north west wind

     

    note the front over us again

     

    rain

     

    Posted Image

     

    dry am

     

    more heavy rain incoming after lunch

     

    temps

     

    Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

     

    rain may be a pest again

     

    note as the colder air digs in on thursday night

     

    we may see something wintry

     

    maybe the lamp posts might get useful again

     

     

    more later

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    Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

    heres what ian f just posted on the mod thread

     

    ... and there's a very good reason why they'll not get drawn too hastily in making pronouncements based on speculative or non-consensual modelling: because they are the de facto underpinning of UK-PWS weather warnings etc., and moreover are more than aware of the public 'fatigue' with seeing supposed 'snowmageddon/arctic blast/Siberian whiteout' hyperbole peddled to a largely non-specialist population by certain newspapers. This distinction between scaring the horses through the voodoo of Maddenology, versus measured, timely use of *Meteorology* and expressions of confidence (something you won't ever see expressed in newspaper articles: they are always 'certain' of the scary outcome), is key here. Equally, the 6-15/6-30d web forecasts are not created or written with enthusiasts etc in mind: they are there for Jo Public to comprehend and for that reason, you won't see talk of 'northern blocking' or 'Spanish Plumes' or whatever mechanisms. It's a poisoned chalice (as I've often said) writing these outlooks: rest assured most bench forecasters would far rather stick to preparing the 1-5d period narrative, rather than try to offer a reasoned explanation a fortnight or more ahead, strewn with model caveats and divergences way beyond the comprehension of most people reading it and thus rarely expressed in any detail. As for the period ahead, the UKMO assessment - as it stands - looks just fine: a broadly westerly-dominated story punctuated by threat of colder phases. The JMA solution is, be assured, one of many possible outcomes keenly watched at Ops Centre in so far as the 'colder phases' might be manifested. It might be instructive if the JMA solution is cited at all when their internal 6-15d assessment, based on 12z output, is circulated to us later tonight.

     

    i think that explains it pretty well

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    Posted
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
  • Location: Great Yarmouth

    Hi JennyJane,

     

    expect the cold has encouraged them inside, generally they remain active outside while the temp is 5c or more. There are certainly lots of different types in the UK but they all look the same once salted!Posted Image

    I don't salt them! poor creatures! I talk to them and say things like "don't crawl there, someone will step on you",

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    Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

    and now the mod thread will be happy

     

    from ian f just now

     

    Ah but hang about: many very much more expert folk posting on here, I can assure you. Anyway - the similar trend in JMA and the 12z EC ENS has certainly caught the eye of colleagues. It's one to watch for where we head in the output over the next day or two, for sure.

     

    no more mod threads posts now

     

    i think i will stick with my own ideas Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Not a fan of heatstroke.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

    whos for a big pub run tonight ?Posted Image

     

    From the last couple of posts it's a good one.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex

    @liamdutton sounds a bit more confident of a bit of wintry weather end January on Twitter

     

    And @alexdeakin is saying the opposite haha

    Edited by SteveCoops
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    Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

    hi chris

     

    it dont surprise me

     

    its a funny game all this

     

    anyway hopefully back soon with the fax chart updates

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    Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate, Kent, UK.
  • Location: Ramsgate, Kent, UK.

    WOW, 5 minutes ago the skies were clear and the viz was reasonable, now it's down to at least 800m, very quickly going down hill.

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    Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

    hi blake

     

    be aware for ice tomorrow

     

    the fog should reduce it to a degree

     

    but you cannot entirely rule out the ice risk

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    Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.ensm.diff.shtml

     

    have a look at the above link

     

    see if anyone can spot what is wrong there

     

    any takers?

     

    have a look at the top graph

     

    thats the current nao

     

    now the stronger that is the stronger the jet is likely to be

     

    now look at the graph below it

     

    it shows the 7 day 10 day then 14 forecasts

     

    they are clearly overdoing it

     

    thats why i am not convinced on any further output at present

    Edited by john pike
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    Posted
  • Location: Brentford, West London (from Wales originally)
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy, windy, cold.
  • Location: Brentford, West London (from Wales originally)

    Evening all!! Foggy here, gonna be interesting in morning I reckon..

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    Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.ensm.diff.shtml

     

    have a look at the above link

     

    see if anyone can spot what is wrong there

    at a guess  the top NAO is at odds with the others?

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    Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    hi jax

     

    correct i answered it above

    ahh, I saw the original post (back reading as I was away watching the telly) and was pondering it for a while so missed your last post  Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    Evening all!! Foggy here, gonna be interesting in morning I reckon..

    OOOH, you just made me go and look out the window and indeed it is both foggy/misty and frosty here too (I can see the return to work at silly o'clock in the dark tomorrow morning is set to be fun then)

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    Posted
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex

    Thick fog looking down the street - can't see more than three houses away, yet the moon is as clear as anything!

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    Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    Thick fog looking down the street - can't see more than three houses away, yet the moon is as clear as anything!

    RUN! the moon is crashing into us

     

     

     

    *legs it*

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    Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

    Posted Image

     

    friday

     

    Posted Image

     

    cold

     

    north west to south west and will be breezy

     

    dry am precipitation pm

     

    temps around 5-6 degrees

     

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------

     

    saturday

     

    Posted Image

     

    a cold and strong north west wind

     

    cold front incoming but will probably weaken as it gets here

     

    temps

     

    Posted Image

    around 8 degrees

     

    but noticeable windchill

     

    note high pressure still strong to our north east

     

    low above us likely to start to head south

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    Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

    thanks bjay kent

     

    looks like we may have a late night thursday

     

    even just to see something would be nice

     

    my interest is in the outlook when the low above us on sturday heads south

     

    it will be interesting if it goes where i think it will Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    Interesting for the weekend there JP, it is a start like you say but not expecting the cold front to "do much" (I do like the FAX charts, they seem to make more sense, and I am a complete numpty on this stuff)

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Jax
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