South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 16/01/14

[john pike]

hi again

 

here we go again with differences between the models

 

even ukmo and ecm do not match

 

ukmo at 144

 

 

ecm

 

 

gfs

 

 

more later

[Iceni]

I live about 2 miles from Bodiam, which has apparently flooded forever - the castle (which was a vanity project rather than a defensive device) was built a few yards uphill from the River Rother to avoid the all too frequent overflows. Even the Castle Inn, built I think in the 1700's, is positioned up some steps from the flood plain. So the road disappears every so often under riverwater. There seems to be a lot of 'unprecedented' talk around with the current, most unpleasant - and for some dangerous and damaging - conditions. But we've definitely been here before.

 

 

Different place but do you remember NYC flooding after Hurricane Sandy? Unprecedented blah blah blah etc. etc.

 

I used to cycle around NYC and noticed that ALL the older residential streets in Manhattan had a big flight of steps up to their front doors. They were quite high too, at least 6 foot up from the street.

Edited January 17, 2014 by Iceni

[shotski]

hi again

 

here we go again with differences between the models

 

even ukmo and ecm do not match

 

ukmo at 144

 

 

ecm

 

 

gfs

 

 

more later

 

Not a million miles off though John, Forget the Easterly it's a dead bird.

 

The promised land lies next weekend.

[Charltonkerry]

I would to report that the "one show" is stalking my company, recently the went to Ocado Hatfield, now they at Foxs Batley, common denominator is us we are working at both. Am I being stalked? Not only that but they didn't show any of my plant. Wonder if I can put on the vans as advertised on the one show :-)

When the film was taken at Batley it was raining, phew got the weather in.

Edited January 17, 2014 by Charltonkerry

[john pike]

ecm is actually a cold run for us right through

 

not snow cold but cold none the less

 

the 240 chart shows this

 

 

 

talk about blocked

 

if and a big if this

 

the low shoots south east we would see some very cold conditions very soon after

 

i want to see this at 120 though

 

nice to see either way

 

fax will be interesting tonight as if that matches with ukmo we might see something wintry on 144

 

anyway be back soon with the updates

[john pike]

 

Not a million miles off though John, Forget the Easterly it's a dead bird.

 

The promised land lies next weekend.

 

hi shotski

 

theres a lot of differences there mate

 

thats where fi is at present

 

do not rule out the easterly on ukmo

 

i trust that model more than any other model

 

i do agree though the fun should begin next week

 

just want to see it in the reliable timeframe

Edited January 17, 2014 by john pike

[shotski]

hi shotski

 

theres a lot of differences there mate

 

thats where fi is at present

 

do not rule out the easterly on ukmo

 

i trust that model more than any other model

 

i do agree though the fun should begin next week

 

just want to see it in the reliable timeframe

 

Hi John

 

Yep I would agree that FI is around day 5, but the northern hem profile looks epic after that and throw in

a SSW to boot.

 

Going to have a peak at the 500mb charts and see where they sit.

 

Edit:  Bingo, look at the height anomalys over the arctic.

Edited January 17, 2014 by shotski

[Jason T]

Rainfall for the weekend. Ill leave it there.

 

 

Total rainfall From Today Till Monday.

 

 

 

Images from Twitter. Surrey.

 

http://t.co/CDa5IJD9hO

 

http://t.co/byrVSjCPOo

[stun12]

Different place but do you remember NYC flooding after Hurricane Sandy? Unprecedented blah blah blah etc. etc.

 

I used to cycle around NYC and noticed that ALL the older residential streets in Manhattan had a big flight of steps up to their front doors. They were quite high too, at least 6 foot up from the street.

 

Yes, I remember it well. It's interesting that people were clearly more respectful of nature's powers then.

 

As for the current weather, I blame the media and politicians for creating the power of nightmares. Report by all means. Sympathise, as they should. But they need to look at history too, especially before taxing us with windmills.

 

Sorry, the renewable thing just annoys me. I'll shut up now. Coat fetched.

Edited January 17, 2014 by stun12

[john pike]

hi shotski

 

i thinks somethings coming

 

sooner rather than later please

 

gfs ensembles

 

 

fi about the 23rd-24th

 

certainly looking colder after though

 

 

think a bit of a ramp later on the 18z runs coming up

 

will update soon to see how much more rain is on the way

[shotski]

Hi Jason,

 

This time next week you'll be talking about snowfall totals

 

Also the JMA on board, look at that NH profile.

Edited January 17, 2014 by shotski

[Snowangel-MK]

I would to report that the "one show" is stalking my company

That water repellant spray looks good - can we all club together and place a bulk order :-)

[Jason T]

Hi Jason,

 

This time next week you'll be talking about snowfall totals

 

Also the JMA on board, look at that NH profile.

 

 

Hope so....26th Jan 2013

 

[all weather]

This is just getting crazy - so much water. My boss had trouble getting in from East Grinstead today, it was the worst journey he's had yet. On a positive note, this has happened which has become a bit of a must see if you live around here - we'd quite like to keep it:

 

http://www.yourlocalguardian.co.uk/news/10922848.Then_and_now__River_Wandle_source_flows_for_the_first_time_in_15_years/

 

Dubmuffin, I live around the corner, well a very short drive away and have been there a few times in the last week or so as I was amazed at it, I always use to walk past thinking 'one day I would love to see that full'. I stood there with others taking photos, looking like right tourists.

 

I had a quick walk down to the grotto end and it looked like the water was just rising up from the ground.

 

An amazing sight, even the Hog Pit is full, and I think that is where the annual bonfire is held....

 

Only in Oct/Nov was I with our son collecting conkers running around both areas, not a drop of water in sight!

 

AW

[lottiekent]

Hope so....26th Jan 2013

 

If we can just have whole of the south east coloured in a solid white too the whole thread will be happy.

Well, us coldies. You can't please everyone

[Flaked Queen]

Well as no show for snow for little mans birthday tomorrow we did go and pick up a snow machine got back got excited and me being me wanted to try it out .... WON'T work so e mailed the person and guess what his reply was sold as seen no returns !! What a **************** he assured us it worked as he said he had only used it at Xmas !! Should have asked to see it working but he said he was in a rush to get out for a family dinner so as trusting as we was brought it and went off with a big smile on our face .. How dishonest and rude some ppl can be sorry rant over back to weather GIVE US SOME SNOW please

[lottiekent]

Some pics I took on the phone on the walk home from work/school run earlier..angry looking skies over the Channel and some happy surfers in it

[blackprince]

 

Well as no show for snow for little mans birthday tomorrow we did go and pick up a snow machine got back got excited and me being me wanted to try it out .... WON'T work so e mailed the person and guess what his reply was sold as seen no returns !! What a **************** he assured us it worked as he said he had only used it at Xmas !! Should have asked to see it working but he said he was in a rush to get out for a family dinner so as trusting as we was brought it and went off with a big smile on our face .. How dishonest and rude some ppl can be sorry rant over back to weather GIVE US SOME SNOW please

 After all your troubles,keep trying to get it to work might be something simple,hope it does work....good luck

[Jason T]

If we can just have whole of the south east coloured in a solid white too the whole thread will be happy.

Well, us coldies. You can't please everyone

 

 

Here you go lottie k .

 

[lawrenk]

hi shotski

 

i thinks somethings coming

 

sooner rather than later please

 

gfs ensembles

 

 

fi about the 23rd-24th

 

certainly looking colder after though

 

 

think a bit of a ramp later on the 18z runs coming up

 

will update soon to see how much more rain is on the way

I agree

 

hi shotski

 

i thinks somethings coming

 

sooner rather than later please

 

gfs ensembles

 

 

fi about the 23rd-24th

 

certainly looking colder after though

 

 

think a bit of a ramp later on the 18z runs coming up

 

will update soon to see how much more rain is on the way

I agree John, though looks a complex set up to my layman's eyes.

 

If Feb and March deliver the goods the last two months dross will be quickly forgotten!

[john pike]

tonight

 

rain moving from south of us northwards and some heavy

 

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

 

clearing overnight in the early hours

 

not cold unless you get clear skies

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow

 

 

a breezy southerly wind

 

fog-misty start with patchy drizzle around

 

poss clearance locally around lunchtime

 

rain on way again though and some heavy

 

hitting us around mid-late afternoon

 

 

temps

 

around 10 degrees

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow night

 

a breezy but not too strong southerly wind

 

rain

 

slow moving heavy rain

 

clearing before morning

 

temps

 

not cold around 6-8 degrees

 

the odd rumble??

 

possible

 

keep your eye on poss flood warnings again

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

sunday

 

looks like a very weak westerly flow

 

rain

 

after early morning rain clears it looks mainly dry

 

there could be some persistant low cloud and drizzle east coastal regions

 

looks likely a cloudy day today

 

temps

 

chillier around 8-10 degrees

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

sunday night

 

 

a chilly north west flow

 

rain

 

 

misty murky stuff on east and north east coasts

 

other than that dry

 

temps

 

a frost in all areas looks likely

 

east coastal and north east coastal should feel cold but avoid a frost

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

monday

 

a cold north west flow

 

rain

 

dry again

 

temps

 

cold and possibly sunny

 

temps around 5-6 degrees

 

brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

 

back later

 

john

[snowbob]

Cheers your not getting a coffee JP

Lol

[john pike]

hi mate

 

i reckon a draw

 

rematch tomorrow night i reckon

[tadpole]

I agree

 

I agree John, though looks a complex set up to my layman's eyes.

 

If Feb and March deliver the goods the last two months dross will be quickly forgotten!

 

It can snow lots in Feb, but not in March. I need to start growing my dinner then.

[A Wintry Mix]

Took this from my phone earlier