South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 16/01/14

[Tamara]

and now the mod thread will be happy

 

from ian f just now

 

Ah but hang about: many very much more expert folk posting on here, I can assure you. Anyway - the similar trend in JMA and the 12z EC ENS has certainly caught the eye of colleagues. It's one to watch for where we head in the output over the next day or two, for sure.

 

no more mod threads posts now

 

i think i will stick with my own ideas

Its not a competition John, and no-one is greater than the sum of all the parts - we all share ideas, learn, and that is part of the community spirit

 

I value and find the opinions in here as helpful to me as much as anywhere else

Edited January 20, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[john pike]

re sat fax

 

 

block to our north east still there

 

high pressure to our west

 

now the low to the north of the uk should go south and has a lovely gap to fit into

 

once that heads south we have to watch to see and hope it travels far enough south

 

to get the colder uppers to head back towards us

 

and also we should get some nice east-north easterly winds

 

all interesting to watch unfold

 

will the charts play ball?????

Its not a competition John, and no-one is greater than the sum of all the parts - we all share ideas, learn, and that is part of the community spirit

didnt say it was

 

just said the mod thread is full of some many different opinions i will avoid looking

 

in there and stick to my own thoughts from now on

[Captain Shortwave]

Fog and frost already here, nice to see to be honest.

Lets hope the GFS is on to something. Friday might end up cold 

Even the mean has temperatures sub 5C with the op offering 1s and 2s inland. That's colder than 90% of the nights this winter.

[alexisj9]

heres what ian f just posted on the mod thread

 

... and there's a very good reason why they'll not get drawn too hastily in making pronouncements based on speculative or non-consensual modelling: because they are the de facto underpinning of UK-PWS weather warnings etc., and moreover are more than aware of the public 'fatigue' with seeing supposed 'snowmageddon/arctic blast/Siberian whiteout' hyperbole peddled to a largely non-specialist population by certain newspapers. This distinction between scaring the horses through the voodoo of Maddenology, versus measured, timely use of *Meteorology* and expressions of confidence (something you won't ever see expressed in newspaper articles: they are always 'certain' of the scary outcome), is key here. Equally, the 6-15/6-30d web forecasts are not created or written with enthusiasts etc in mind: they are there for Jo Public to comprehend and for that reason, you won't see talk of 'northern blocking' or 'Spanish Plumes' or whatever mechanisms. It's a poisoned chalice (as I've often said) writing these outlooks: rest assured most bench forecasters would far rather stick to preparing the 1-5d period narrative, rather than try to offer a reasoned explanation a fortnight or more ahead, strewn with model caveats and divergences way beyond the comprehension of most people reading it and thus rarely expressed in any detail. As for the period ahead, the UKMO assessment - as it stands - looks just fine: a broadly westerly-dominated story punctuated by threat of colder phases. The JMA solution is, be assured, one of many possible outcomes keenly watched at Ops Centre in so far as the 'colder phases' might be manifested. It might be instructive if the JMA solution is cited at all when their internal 6-15d assessment, based on 12z output, is circulated to us later tonight.

 

i think that explains it pretty well

I'm liking what may be the new buzz word, "Maddenology"  lol.

[Jax]

My friends, I bid you all good night and I hope to find you all back here tomrrow

 

Take care and sleep well. X

[john pike]

goodnight jax

[john pike]

ecm ensembles

 

 

 

 

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html?eps=london

[greenhithe]

evening all

bit cold here in greenhithe, no fog the moment, bit misty on the qe2 bridge 

as for snow ..... i think that people might be disappointed this year... but i think the summer will be great

[snowrye]

night all,fingers crossed for a shift to winter for a few days,weeks.

[SteveCoops]

Can't even see the house opposite now! I'd hate to be out driving in this. Nice and peaceful though, just like it is after snow falls

[Tamara]

Another great post Tamara, had a little trawl through the Mad, but just too much new material, already spent an hour scanning over today's sermons. It is great that Fergie posts in there but the flurry of posts that follow are very difficult to keep up with,  several dozen thank you's and a similar amount of follow up questions. I know he has a lot more info to hand but don't like the way some hang on his every word - one mention of westerlies and depression sets in as though he is really seeing into the future, whereas  the reality is that he is only interpreting weather models just like the rest of us.

 

Think he could do with a model discussion thread of his own and at the rate you're going Tamara you might need one too!

Thanks Ian , I think that there are lots of other posters who I know have helped me so much understand a little more than before, and I think that it is the enjoyment and happiness with that more than anything else that I like to express. Its good to feel happy in this way as it is in other more obvious everyday ways

Edited January 20, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[john pike]

hi tam

 

i think theres too many posters that are having there own weather preferences

 

i think you do well with your posts to try and be reasonable but it looks like hard work

 

its very hard to get a balanced view in there so its safer to stick to my own thoughts at present

 

been reading too many winters over posts there

 

probably scrambled my brain for now

 

whats the outlook

 

no idea although we have some cold conditions on our doorstep and some interest

 

in how next week fares

 

i do sneak in there occasionally

 

but safer in here now :-)

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=6&carte=0&mode=0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&carte=0&mode=0

 

run through this

 

its the control run

 

if the low plays ball we may see something like this

 

long way to go etc but its what i am watching for now

[SteveCoops]

View from bedroom window. Visibly down to about 5 metres. Barely make out the car in the drive directly below the window. There is another car in the street and a house directly opposite.

Edited January 21, 2014 by SteveCoops

[john pike]

hi steve

 

be careful tomorrow

 

problem tonight is no wind to clear this muck

[ZONE 51]

View from bedroom window. Visibly down to about 5 metres. Barely make out the car in the drive directly below the window. There is another car in the street and a house directly opposite.

Can't see anything in the pic! your reply likely to be "exactly"

[john pike]

 

still messy on the 25th

 

drop still there on the 27th

 

and looks colder than last nights run

 

gfs op the thick green line goes odd 1st february

 

if the op was lower the mean would be lower as well

 

anyway may get interesting tomorrow

 

 

who said weather forecasting was easy

 

 

edit

 

heres the ensemble link

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

 

theres quite a few there to choose from

 

should you want to see any ramps

Edited January 21, 2014 by john pike

[Andy H]

hi tam i think theres too many posters that are having there own weather preferences i think you do well with your posts to try and be reasonable but it looks like hard work its very hard to get a balanced view in there so its safer to stick to my own thoughts at present been reading too many winters over posts there probably scrambled my brain for now whats the outlook no idea although we have some cold conditions on our doorstep and some interest in how next week fares i do sneak in there occasionally but safer in here now :-)

John I don't think you realise how much your posts help! I think the MAD thread would benefit from your input, you give good balanced views within the reliable time frame, and I know they are the posts I look for on there! I skip or ignore the trolls and people that only comment on 240 charts! Personally I only want to know what is going to happen in the next few days I.E the reliable time frame, and I think you explain this better than anyone, keep up the good work!

[john pike]

thanks andy

 

there are some excellent posters on the mod thread as well

 

just seems to get confused with all the differing opinions

 

i will concentrate on the south east thread because i like to post for our local area

 

and thankyou for your kind words

 

john

[Steve C]

Mist has recently appeared here too, slightly obscuring streetlights - an hour ago, it was completely clear. The stars are still bright though.

 

Time for bed, methinks!

Edited January 21, 2014 by Steve C

[john pike]

hi steve

 

think i am off now

 

my brain is now mush

 

goodnight all

 

same again tomorrow

[alexisj9]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79144-model-output-discussion-19th-january-2014-18z-onwards/?p=2901865

 

This post by IF sounds interesting except for the fact I don't really want any more storms.

 

...and yet we have UKMO just now describing early next week as "stormy"; noting how any low as per ENS in N Sea could yield "considerable disruption" to coastal fringes; plus how even EC's westerly flow looks "unusually cold for the direction... bringing higher risk of ice/snow than would be normal (from that direction) in late Jan/early Feb.. "None of which shouts 'normal' in my book....

 

Low in the north sea would = a northerly I think, and I've even noticed how cold the westerly in the ECM seems to be being modeled. All fl for now though, we don't really know what will happen Thurs/fri this week yet.

[ZONE 51]

Not going to mention east UK blizzards yet...

 

Just a thought. What we are heading into is unusual territory, strikes me that all possibilities are open to what could happen. my take on this is a battleground snowfall more over this side, but word of caution only a potential scenario and this is not a ramp. I'm serious thinking here.    

Edited January 21, 2014 by ElectricSnowStorm

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

00 run from gfs

Brrrrrrr

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png?6767676767

London ensembles look colder now

Still got that spread on.the 25th

But also still got that drop on the 27th:)