spring 2014 Spring 2014 Discussion

[johnholmes]

Looks like the 13c will be hit today in the London area if the beebs forecast after the 10pm news last night is correct not bad for late February when you consider the average high for this time of year in London is around 7c

not sure where you get 7C from SS, below is the table of data for Greenwich which suggests above 8C, so 13C still pretty mild.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/19812010/sites/greenwich.html

[Summer Sun]

not sure where you get 7C from SS, below is the table of data for Greenwich which suggests above 8C, so 13C still pretty mild.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/19812010/sites/greenwich.html

 

Hi John I got it from the beeb http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743 - Average Conditions at the bottom of the page

[johnholmes]

Hi John I got it from the beeb http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743 - Average Conditions at the bottom of the page

 

Always use Met O data from their own site, actual climate or forecast.

Lost count the number of times I post this=I have NO idea why BBC web and UK Met show differing outputs at times but they do, repeat always use Met site data NOT BBC.

 

I suspect, but am not sure and not got time to check, that the BBC figures are not the current accepted climatology series, see the different ones on the Met site.

Edited February 20, 2014 by johnholmes

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's not even due to the choice of averaging period: the 1961-1990 average max for February in Greenwich is 7.6C:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/19611990/sites/greenwich.html

For Heathrow Airport it was 7.5C during that period.

 

My guess is that the BBC values might be an approximation rather than derived directly from the Met Office's stats.

Edited February 20, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[stodge]

Afternoon all

 

My view (for what little it's worth) is the way out of the current pattern might occur quite rapidly during the first part of next month. Indeed, I think we could have what I call a "false spring" as pressure rises from the south and we import warmer and drier conditions. I wouldn't even be surprised to see a 20c in or just after mid-month.

 

The problem is "false spring" conditions are the cruellest as they tend to last a good fortnight but then lead to much colder conditions as HP migrates from the south so my thoughts are for a much colder end to March with wintry conditions returning to higher elevations and some of the coldest conditions of 2014 so far in the south at the end of the month before unsettled conditions break through in mid-April.

[Summer Sun]

Jamstec February update is in for March to May

 

Precipitation looks average to slightly below average for all but north west Scotland where its shown to be slightly above normal

 

 

Temperatures are shown to be average to slightly above normal for most of the UK

 

[Summer Sun]

Met office ensemble mean maps have also updated for February and cover the period of March to May

 

2m temperatures are shown to be slightly above normal

 

 

850 hpa temperatures are also shown to be slightly above normal

 

 

Precipitation is shown to be slightly below normal

 

[Thundery wintry showers]

One for the pattern matching fans- many previous years that had a westerly-dominated January and February, and a weaker dominance of westerlies into March with high pressure ridging into Europe at times, have had a spring with frequent dry sunny spells and then hot dry sunny summers, such as 1989, 1990 and 1995.  March 1995 may have been wintry at times but it was still essentially a month of alternating westerly and anticyclonic spells, the difference was that the westerlies were often colder than usual whereas in Marches 1989 and 1990 they brought mild temperatures.

 

Indeed I remember reading a paper in Weather documenting a link between a positive winter NAO and drier summers during the twentieth century.  However we have to be careful of reading too much into this as sometimes trends sustain for a while as a result of statistical "quirks" and then abruptly stop "working"- it may be that one century isn't a long enough time span.

 

If this spring does follow in the footsteps of 1989/1990/1995 then it should be drier and thus provide relief for the waterlogged areas, with the main question being whether it ends up warm or variable temperature-wise.  I can see potential for some "cold zonality" potentially setting up over the country at some point during March, as the stronger-than-usual Azores High that is currently forecast for early March (which was also present in early March 1995) could allow the jet stream to head SE into Europe at times, as well as sometimes providing ridges of high pressure into western Europe.

Edited February 23, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[Summer Sun]

Final spring outlook from Gavin Partridge

 

Average temperatures and drier than average

 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Kind of hoping that's true. Personally feel as though we are overdue some less unsettled weather. With the invasion of rainy and windy weather we've had in the last few months (though no doubt been good news for those who like the wind and rain), the weather does need to chill out a bit.

Edited February 23, 2014 by DiagonalRedLine

[Recretos]

I've also gathered a few graphics from different centres, which have a bit weird "consensus", so to speak. It might be the current trends affecting the models too much. It certainly wouldn't be the first time.

 

http://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/spring-2014-current-model-outlook-2/

[Frank Trough]

I've also gathered a few graphics from different centres, which have a bit weird "consensus", so to speak. It might be the current trends affecting the models too much. It certainly wouldn't be the first time.

 

http://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/spring-2014-current-model-outlook-2/

 

interesting read, thanks for the link!

 

From a selfish point of view, i'm hoping that if Europe ends up being wetter than average through spring that the rain falls mainly away from southern England!  

[Summer Sun]

Was out in the Garden this afternoon and you can really feel the strength in the sun now it felt quite spring like once the wind died down

[The PIT]

Going well spring. Some plants have had a head start since it never cooled down for them to die back. So several pond Lillies are adding to the autumn leaves. The grass that previously halted for a few weeks in Feb has now resumed growing. I really need some dry weather so I can cut it.

[Weather-history]

Hopefully we will get more of a typical spring this year.

Recently, we have had some seasons that have been totally out of kilt. Last "spring" was one, this "winter" just on its way out, the "summer" of 2012, the "autumn" of 2011.

Edited February 27, 2014 by Weather-history

[Summer Sun]

Latest WSI forecast is out

 

WSI: No Sign of European Winter Pattern Changing as We March into Spring

 

Lack of Atlantic Blocking to Result in More Mild Westerly Flow

 

Andover, MA, 25 February 2014 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects widespread above-normal temperatures across Scandinavia, UK, and most of mainland Europe for the March-May period, with slightly below-normal temperatures confined to Iberia.According to WSI Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: “The European winter pattern, which drove one of the rainiest winter in modern UK history, has been characterized by a super-charged westerly Atlantic jet stream that has transported copious amounts of Atlantic moisture into western Europe. Further, the strong jet stream has kept most of the very cold air at bay, a sharp change from recent winters. Dynamical and statistical models all suggest a continuation of this general pattern well into spring, with very warm temperatures across eastern Europe and near-normal temperatures and very wet conditions across western Europe. While there is no sign of the strong jet stream weakening heading into March at this time, we will be monitoring the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) going forward for potential changes that would result in a notably different pattern. We feel that risk is low at this time.â€In March, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normalUK – Near normalNorthern Mainland – Warmer than normalSouthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except for IberiaIn April, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normalUK – Warmer than normalNorthern Mainland – Warmer than normalSouthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except for IberiaIn May, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normalUK – Warmer than normalNorthern Mainland – Warmer than normalSouthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except for Iberia/southern France

 

http://www.wsi.com/c8033d3a-102c-4509-b6d1-441cd445dcde/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

 

[Weather-history]

Despite the mildness of the winter, spring doesn't seem to be that advanced here. Snowdrops out, daffodils are not far off blooming but I have seen them earlier than this.

[hillbilly]

Despite the mildness of the winter, spring doesn't seem to be that advanced here. Snowdrops out, daffodils are not far off blooming but I have seen them earlier than this.

Yes strange,snowdrops are late crocuses about normal yet daffs not out yet.Probably due to wet weather and lack of sunshine!

[damianslaw]

Yes strange,snowdrops are late crocuses about normal yet daffs not out yet.Probably due to wet weather and lack of sunshine!

 

 

Lack of sunshine is probably a key factor rather than cold soil temperatures. Flowers generally respond to increasing daylight and sunshine and we have seen little sunshine in the past couple of weeks. I do however, expect a yellow bonanza burst open by the end of next week thanks to much more abundant sunshine.

 

My honeysuckle starting sprouting new green shoots way back at the tail end of January.

 

Last spring saw many daffodils not flower until well into April. This year will see a much more normal start to spring growth.

 

Commenting on the forecast above, it makes for rather depressing reading it has to be said. The NAO has to go negative at some point, how long has the longest spell of positive NAO lasted.. I think the last time it was ever slightly below positive was late November.

[Costa Del Fal]

Daffodils have been out for a while here now in Southern Cornwall but to be expected given we are the furthest south in the UK (mainland) so a strengthening sun earlier on and of course its generally milder anyway.

Edited March 2, 2014 by Blizzards

[Summer Sun]

Ice warnings out for tonight and into tomorrow

 

Issued at: 1056 on Sun 2 Mar 2014

Valid from: 2000 on Sun 2 Mar 2014

Valid to: 0900 on Mon 3 Mar 2014

 

A band of rain will move east across the UK during Sunday, followed by clearing skies and light winds across many central areas leading to frost and ice with the risk of patchy freezing fog. The public should be aware of the risk of ice forming on untreated surfaces, firstly across Northern Ireland during Sunday evening and then overnight over southwest Scotland, parts of Wales, northern England and the Midlands.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

An active occluded front will bring a band of rain, some heavy, eastwards across the UK during Sunday, becoming slow moving close to North Sea coasts and possibly lingering across central, northern and eastern Scotland during Monday. There is uncertainty in the extent of the cloud and rain clearance from eastern areas and thus the temperatures towards dawn on Monday, but further west clearing skies will allow road temperatures to fall below zero, with ice forming on untreated surfaces left wet by the earlier rain. Heavy showers, wintry in places, will follow into southwestern parts of the UK early on Monday.

 

Areas under the warning

 

South Ayrshire, East Ayrshire, South Lanarkshire

 

Dumfries and Galloway

 

County Fermanagh, County Tyrone, County Armagh, County Down, County Londonderry, County Antrim

 

Cheshire East, Cheshire West and Chester, Greater Manchester, Halton, Lancashire, Merseyside, Warrington, Blackburn with Darwen, Blackpool, Cumbria

 

North Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire

 

Conwy, Denbighshire, Gwynedd, Wrexham, Flintshire, Powys, Isle of Anglesey

 

Shropshire, Staffordshire, Telford and Wrekin, Warwickshire, West Midlands Conurbation, Stoke-on-Trent, Worcestershire, Herefordshire

 

Derbyshire

[MP-R]

But didn't I see somewhere that the only good thing about this winter was the higher than average sunshine across the UK? I wouldn't be surprised if growth is still slow just because the soil is waterlogged - saturated ground must have a negative effect on growth (not that I know much about this.)

[Richard2901]

I saw crocuses and daffodils out yesterday at Crathes Castle, Aberdeenshire. Not only that there were rhododendrons in full bloom as well.

 

This is undoubtedly the most far advanced spring growth at this time since 1998 yet in places it still looks like autumn with hedgerows full of brown leaves that have never fallen off.

 

Also I have noticed leaves starting to bud on trees that were still green at the start of December.

[Thundery wintry showers]

But didn't I see somewhere that the only good thing about this winter was the higher than average sunshine across the UK? I wouldn't be surprised if growth is still slow just because the soil is waterlogged - saturated ground must have a negative effect on growth (not that I know much about this.)

There's been a regional contrast in the sunshine figures this winter- Lincolnshire, East Anglia and the SE have consistently had above average sunshine but it has been very dull in western Scotland and north-west England.

[Milhouse]

I saw crocuses and daffodils out yesterday at Crathes Castle, Aberdeenshire. Not only that there were rhododendrons in full bloom as well.

 

This is undoubtedly the most far advanced spring growth at this time since 1998 yet in places it still looks like autumn with hedgerows full of brown leaves that have never fallen off.

 

Also I have noticed leaves starting to bud on trees that were still green at the start of December.

 

Growth really has advanced quickly here in the past 2 weeks. Crocuses aplenty in the garden and on a certain stretch of road on my way to work there is a noticeable green tinge appearing on the hedgerows.