spring 2014 Spring 2014 Discussion

[Summer Sun]

20.5C is the highest temperature so far this year every chance that will go this weekend

[I remember Atlantic 252]

20.5C is the highest temperature so far this year every chance that will go this weekend

 

supposed to be nasty in your area? 7C drizzle and windy next few days, 0r is it mainly the Sunderland through to aberdeen area

[Summer Sun]

supposed to be nasty in your area? 7C drizzle and windy next few days, 0r is it mainly the Sunderland through to aberdeen area

 

Its not nasty here by any means hazy sunshine and its not cold at all 11.1c and rising not as warm as the south but thats nothing unusual for the time of year.

[Summer Sun]

Just short of 20c today as of 4pm at high of 18.6C was recorded at St James's Park in London

[Summer Sun]

0.2c short of the warmest day of the year now

 

Central London temperature is currently 20.4C

[James M]

Lovely day, though it is quite hazy. Spring is definitely here, today I've seen lots of queen bumbles and a few small tortoiseshell butterflies

[Costa Del Fal]

Ants, bumble bees and lots of butterflies out today here. 19c and hazy sunshine though a little

Cloudier recently from some clod advection from France.

[Milhouse]

Much cooler and hazier here but it appears that we are just enough south to escape the really chilly stuff that the NE is experiencing. Across central England temperatures are 12-14c higher than this day last year. The oil seed rape is coming out already and its not even April yet.

[cheese]

Not at all pleased with the current weather - generally murky, misty, hazy and a little chilly. These E winds are cack.

[Summer Sun]

Not at all pleased with the current weather - generally murky, misty, hazy and a little chilly. These E winds are cack.

 

Yeah, signs from GFS and ECM that this winds will shift round to a south to south westerly for next weekend until then its more of the same for the east / NE of England and Scotland with some rain likely tomorrow and possibly Friday as well

[Summer Sun]

Met office hinting it turning colder towards mid April with wintery showers in the north in today's 6 to 15 day up date

 

Later in the period is more uncertain, although indications are it could turn colder and windy with wintry showers in the north.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[feb1991blizzard]

Nice.

 

[Thundery wintry showers]

Not cold enough, taking a glance at the projected 850hPa temperatures for the ECMWF T+240 chart (around -1 to -3- for widespread snowfalls I'd be looking out for values of -6 and below).

Edited April 1, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[Summer Sun]

Nice.

 

 

Ensemble has pressure at 1019mb

 

[Summer Sun]

The weather outlooks April forecast, above average temperatures likely to continue with Precipitation Close to average

 

April: Mixed month

 

Temperature

 

Over the forecast period temperatures are expected to be above average.

 

Precipitation

 

Close to average

 

1/4 to 7/4

A mixed week is expected. In central and eastern regions quite a lot of dry weather is likely with reasonable amounts of sunshine. Not dry all of the time though with a chance of sharp showers or possibly even more persistent outbreaks of rain. In the west and north of the UK a generally more unsettled picture is expected to bring heavy showers and longer spells of rain at times. Despite this temperatures here should also be above the early April average, although cooler at times in Scotland. Towards the end of the week more persistent rain may gradually push south eastwards with clearer and cooler conditions returning from the north west. 

 

8/4 to 14/4

 

A mixed week is again expected. Early on showers are likely, especially in the north where they could be heavy at times. Over the Scottish mountains it could be cold enough for some of these to fall as sleet or snow. During the course of the week a trend towards drier weather with higher daytime temperatures is expected to develop in southern and central regions and possibly extend to the north. Overnight temperatures could fall bringing a risk of patchy frost.

 

15/4 to 30/4

 

Forecast confidence for the second half of the month is low. Early in the period there could be quite a lot of dry and fine weather with daytime temperatures mostly above the mid April average. Later on a transition to more unsettled conditions with showers or longer spells of rain and close to average temperatures is possible. North western areas probably the most unsettled with the south east expected to remain drier.

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/30-day-uk-weather-forecast

[Don]

Hmm already getting the feeling I may have gone too low for April's CET. Will stand by it though. 7 out of the last 9 months being above average makes me increasingly think that we have slipped back to our warm pre-2008 pattern. I suppose it was going to happen sooner or later though and I'm greatful for that colder 5 year period. I certainly didn't expect it back in 2007!

Edited April 1, 2014 by Don

[sebastiaan1973]

De Bilt march 2014 achieved 8.4c, ranking 3rd warmest.  And sunniest ´ever´.

[Vorticity0123]

De Bilt march 2014 achieved 8.4c, ranking 3rd warmest.  And sunniest ´ever´.

 

In addition to the main facts Sebastiaan gave about the unusual sunny and warm March in Holland, there were some more interesting facts about this month.

 

First, March was the fourth consecutive month to attain an average temperature which was listed in the top 10 warmest. For comparison, last year March average temperature was the coldest in 25 years, with an average temperature of only 2.5*C. In fact, ice skating was still possible in the end of March last year .

 

Unique natural ice structures in the Netherlands in March, 2013 (Courtesy: Jannes Wiersema, KNMI).

 

Furthermore, De Bilt recorded a total amount of three 'warm days' in March this year (i.e. a maximum temperature of 20*C or higher recorded on one day). On average, such 'warm' days haven't yet been measured in March in De Bilt, Holland.

 

Finally, there was a large difference between maximum and minimum temperatures during a day in the first weeks of March. Sometimes, a difference existed of more than 15*C between minimum and maximum temperature on one day.

 

Sources:

http://www.knmi.nl/cms/content/118765/zonrecord_in_zeer_zachte_maart

http://www.knmi.nl/klimatologie/maand_en_seizoensoverzichten/maand/mrt13.html

Edited April 2, 2014 by Vorticity0123

[Summer Sun]

Latest WSI 3 monthly forecast from April to June, unless we see a sudden change the April prediction looks wrong

 

Westerly Winds to Continue to Prevail Across Europe During Spring

 

Still No Sign of Any Imminent North Atlantic Blocking that Would Change “Locked-In†Pattern

 

Andover, MA, 25 March 2014 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects widespread above-normal temperatures across Scandinavia, UK, and most of mainland Europe for the April-June period, with slightly below-normal temperatures confined to Iberia.According to WSI Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: “The Northern Hemispheric winter pattern has been unusually persistent this winter, and many dynamical and statistical models suggest that it will continue well into the spring. For Europe, this means a continuation of the westerly flow pattern that has driven the very wet winter across western Europe and the unusually warm winter across eastern Europe. However, as we approach spring, the westerly pattern off the winter-cooled Atlantic actually becomes cooler, relative to normal, across western Europe than it was in the winter. So we expect more widespread (but not extreme in magnitude) below-normal temperatures across western Europe in April, with continued warmth across the East. This also means the same general distribution of renewable energy supply, that is, wet/windy/cloudy across the north and west and drier/calmer/sunnier across southern latitudes.â€In April, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normalUK – Cooler than normalNorthern Mainland – Cooler than normal France/western Germany, warmer than normal elsewhereSouthern Mainland – Cooler than normal Iberia to northern Italy, warmer than normalelsewhereIn May, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normalUK – Cooler than normalNorthern Mainland – Warmer than normalSouthern Mainland – Warmer than normalIn June, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normalUK – Warmer than normal southeast, cooler than normal northwestNorthern Mainland – Warmer than normalSouthern Mainland – Warmer than normal

 

http://www.wsi.com/a2b4d2b9-15bc-4af0-950e-4025dfd022b3/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

[feb1991blizzard]

Not cold enough, taking a glance at the projected 850hPa temperatures for the ECMWF T+240 chart (around -1 to -3- for widespread snowfalls I'd be looking out for values of -6 and below).

 

Academic now of course but if we could have got to that 240 chart with good WAA up the Western side of Greenland, a good cold pooling to the Northeast and that shortwave ejecting SE wards past Cornwall, we might have had a shot at an Early April 2012 or late April 1981 type setup down the line.

[feb1991blizzard]

Ensemble has pressure at 1019mb

 

 

 

Always going to be varying clusters though in a 50 member suite, I doubt any Early April ECM suite has ever gone for a potent cold snap in April (even when its happened) at 240 hours without a great deal of variance between members.

[feb1991blizzard]

Cold.  Snow in the North to low levels.

 

[Weather-history]

Cold.  Snow in the North to low levels.

 

You can bet that will come off since it's Easter!

[Milhouse]

Amazing to think that this time last year we were still getting single figure maxes and the countryside was firmly stuck in winter. Now its full Spring mode. Some trees coming into leaf and the tulips coming out. What a difference a year makes.

[Captain Shortwave]

Cold.  Snow in the North to low levels.

 

And the ECM control this morning had southerlies and a temperature anomaly approaching +10C in the south east and above average temperatures everywhere. Safe to say there is little confidence in the output for Easter though my gut suggests something close to average countrywide.

Edited April 5, 2014 by Captain shortwave