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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


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  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    Why is it alwaysonly the last few frames of a GFS run that show a significant strat warning? I'd say it's because it is always 15 days away and never gets any closer! We have been posting day 10+ strat warmings since Christmas and we are now looking at Feb lol

     

    Not on the same scale as the FI charts,but there is a decent strat warming happening

    right now,which will result in temperatures going above average at 10mb and 30mb

    during the next week over the pole.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Reliable timeframe - it is actually quite a chilly outlook especially in northern and eastern parts with temperatures around the seasonal average, even BBC forecasting only 4 degree maxima for Tuesday. So after 7 solid weeks of consistently above average temperatures finally we look like entering a period with temps sustained at a more typical value for the time of year.

     

    No denying the fact that things are stirring towards a pattern change over northern hemisphere - with increasing signs of a more amplified flow developing over NE USA/East Canadian seaboard which is crucial if we are to come under the influence of projected height rises over the Pole.

     

    Just read Tamara's post and a very good one. Yes I agree, the key is amplification taking place which will allow for mid atlantic height rises which can then join forces with projected arctic/scandi heights. So the evolution to a colder pattern is all dictated upon events NE USA/E Canadian seaboard and continued pressure on the Canadian PV.

     

    I'm more optimistic now than at any stage so far this winter that colder and hopefully drier weather has at least as equal a chance of descending upon the country as the mild atlantic fest not before too long - the change most likely to occur during the latter few days of January.

    Edited by damianslaw
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    GFS 06z 8 day temperature anomlay shows an east west split for England and wales, with the east seeing temperatures average or slightly below the exception is the coastal areas of the SE and east Anglia where its slightly above. To the west we have average to slightly above average temperatures.

     

    For mainland Scotland its a split again the west has slightly below average temps with the exception of the south west where its slightly above average along with the east which is slightly above average along with the western isles and Shetland.

     

    All of northern Ireland is slightly below average except the far west

     

    Posted Image

     

    Normal temps left, expected temps right

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Yep a consistent theme of cool zonal conditions with the Op on the cold side of the ENS suite again after an uncertain period as the blocking situation is resolved.

    Posted Image

     

    A sensible call from METO again with largely cold / mild oscillations & most precipitation to the NW indicating a zonal NW type flow neither desperately cold nor mild as such. Persisting right into mid February seems a good call.

    Edited by Purga
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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

    End result of the ECM today is probably what those who thought laterally, envisaged yesterday evening. We have three possible height sources around day 10 - the Azores ridging northwards, the Arctic high and the Scandi high. The relative strength of each and how they interact will determine whether we will hit a cold bonanza or not. For the first time this winter we at least have bought a ticket for the lottery.

     

    Yes - second extended op run in a row that has the trough clearing far enough away to allow heights to build in behind as energy over Greenland begins to wane. The strat charts suggested this a few days ago. My only fear as stated a couple of days ago - and as TEITS stated earlier - is that the trough doesnt quite move through far enough so that we are unable to pull the winds around and bring in a more NE flow. We need there to be enough energy in the atlantic to force it through... but not so much that it then prevents heights building in behind.

     

    I think we are going to be ok. Your long range forecast has shown itself to be very effective this season, and even from my far less knowledgeable position it has looked on the cards for a while that the end of January would/could deliver. If we can get the bulk of the vortex to position itself on the siberian side then a spell of proper cold weather looks more than possible. This could be the cold February we have been waiting for..

    Edited by Catacol_Highlander
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    Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

    Yep a consistent theme of cool zonal conditions with the Op on the cold side of the ENS suite again after an uncertain period as the blocking situation is resolved.

    Posted Image

     

    A sensible call from METO again with largely cold / mild oscillations & most precipitation to the NW indicating a zonal NW type flow neither desperately cold nor mild as such. Persisting right into mid February seems a good call.

    Indeed, albeit they continue to caution re great uncertainty given "...wide range of synoptic types" into trend period.
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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Yep a consistent theme of cool zonal conditions with the Op on the cold side of the ENS suite again after an uncertain period as the blocking situation is resolved.

    Posted Image

     

    A sensible call from METO again with largely cold / mild oscillations & most precipitation to the NW indicating a zonal NW type flow neither desperately cold nor mild as such. Persisting right into mid February seems a good call.

    UK Outlook for Sunday 2 Feb 2014 to Sunday 16 Feb 2014:

    Current indications point towards changeable conditions persisting into the middle of February. The most likely scenario during this period would see northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent bouts of unsettled and windy weather. Meanwhile southern and eastern regions should tend to see the best spells of drier and brighter weather. Some colder periods are likely, particularly between weather systems, with large variations possible day by day depending on the timings of weather systems.

    Updated: 1145 on Sat 18 Jan 2014

     

    indeed changeable nothing mild and of coarse these outlooks change each few days inline with model projections not good banging on about the arctic heights and cold if its not in a good timeframe but its a cert that the northern hemispheric pattern is going to change.

     

    would be against the met office stance to over hype anything right now as a real professional don't do that. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    Yep a consistent theme of cool zonal conditions with the Op on the cold side of the ENS suite again after an uncertain period as the blocking situation is resolved.

    Posted Image

     

    A sensible call from METO again with largely cold / mild oscillations & most precipitation to the NW indicating a zonal NW type flow neither desperately cold nor mild as such. Persisting right into mid February seems a good call.

    Indeed, nothing to desperately cold and some us in the NW could see some snow at times but with the MetO thinking that this pattern could last until mid February the chances of a nationwide cold spell happening during the winter months are slowly receding.

    Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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    Posted
  • Location: Dublin 131.2 feet asl (40m asl)m
  • Location: Dublin 131.2 feet asl (40m asl)m

    A sensible call from METO again with largely cold / mild oscillations & most precipitation to the NW indicating a zonal NW type flow neither desperately cold nor mild as such. Persisting right into mid February seems a good call.

    How can you know its a good call a month in advance may I ask?Interesting times at the moment with more and more runs showing height rises to our north, this is bound to affect our weather pattern in some way- Get the general pattern first- Then the details after. Hopefully we see the 12z runs continue the theme and bring forward the height rises. The models havent got a grasp on the final pattern yet and wont for some time yet. The important thing is these runs keep appearing and gradually get closer- as are the Northern Hemisphere anomaly charts that J.Holmes posts here. They are pretty important to have in agreement from what we have seen before.Dan Edited by SNOWPLOUGH
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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    The METO are indicating a typical UK winter month for the first half of Feb, with temps around average and a cold N/W flow giving snowfalls from the Midlands North over high ground. We all know from the past that these set-ups can deliver some surprises, and with the uncertainty of this pattern change in mind (of which im sure they have) we could be looking at something completely different by then..

     

     "Some colder periods are likely, particularly between weather systems, with large variations possible day by day depending on the timings of weather systems."

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

     

    An immediate connection via route one arctic high and Scandinavian High would of course be the fastest and coldest option, but realistically imo it is unlikely until further westerly energy is removed from the hemispheric pattern. The demise of the Canadian vortex looks to be a systematic one based on repeated wave activity attacks.

     

    However, within the context of this very poor winter so far then the route 2 option, which I know I suggested from a week or so back could well come into radar range as a possible pattern evolution, and now has done so, is quite a feasible outcome, and should be welcomed wholeheartedly as a possibility. The arctic High has much greater chances to influence our parish after atlantic amplification, rather than before it.

     

    Lets see how this plays out though and let details along the way take care of themselvesPosted Image

     

    Yes - 100% agree. Route 1 unlikely - and we actually dont want the Scandy high from putting up too much resistance because route 2 to my eye opens up a much colder air flow admittedly a little while later. The worst end would be that the scandy high sticks around and puts us in some kind of stagnant cold surface easterly without the cold uppers or low heights to the south to create anything special. I am now hoping for the high to drift away to the east. If its going to hang around then it must must split that flow and retrogress properly.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Just reading last nights comments from NCEP and they seem to think the MJO will play a role, also they mention the cold towards the central USA and don't mention the eastern portion in the 8 to 14 day.

     

    THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE ANOMALY MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE DATE LINE IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AS WELL AS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE ANOMALY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN. THIS COULD FAVOR ENHANCED ODDS OF COLD AIR OUTBREAKS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AND BEYOND, CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.

     

    Downstream in Europe we want the eastern USA to lose its cold and this to move west because this would tie in with the PV displacing further to the nw which might give us some time to develop a more amplified Azores high which can retrogress.

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    So no talk ref Northern blocking from the meto, I wonder if the last few days runs are going to disappear and we just keep the relentless westerlies going.

    I was hoping meto might start talking of blocking this weekend!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    Yes - second extended op run in a row that has the trough clearing far enough away to allow heights to build in behind as energy over Greenland begins to wane.

     

    Problem with that is, the ext ecm ensembles post day 10, don't support heights building.

     

    day 12 & day 14 Ext ECM Ens

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    day 15 GEFS

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

    Just a side note to the person that made the "mouse-over popups" for MJO, GFS, etc... Posted Image

     

    MJO is Madden–Julian oscillation, not  Madden–Julien oscillation. Posted Image

     

     

     

    Problem with that is, the ext ecm ensembles post day 10, don't support heights building.

     

     

    You wont see much more ens diversity past day 10, especially not with 51 members. The spread increases and the mean gets flattened really bad. Unless the member consensus would be strong.

    That is why GEFS sometimes has stronger anomalies at day 16 with only 21 members.

    Edited by Recretos
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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    Just a side note to the person that made the "mouse-over popups" for MJO, GFS, etc... Posted Image

     

    MJO is Madden–Julian oscillation, not  Madden–Julien oscillation. Posted Image

     

     

    Fixed :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City

    Indeed, nothing to desperately cold and some us in the NW could see some snow at times but with the MetO thinking that this pattern could last until mid February the chances of a nationwide cold spell happening during the winter months are slowly receding.

     

    The MetO forecasts for 15-30 days change very frequently. I think you are being too bullish about how definite they are.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Yep a consistent theme of cool zonal conditions with the Op on the cold side of the ENS suite again after an uncertain period as the blocking situation is resolved.

    Posted Image

     

    A sensible call from METO again with largely cold / mild oscillations & most precipitation to the NW indicating a zonal NW type flow neither desperately cold nor mild as such. Persisting right into mid February seems a good call.

    I think you'll find the Meto will always urge on the side if caution when doing extended forecasts, but to say deep cold flat won't be on the cards for Feb 1st half, doesn't really carry any weight if you ask me. Looks very much like sitting on the fence. We know all know from the current setup that anything is possible now, from deep cold, to mild!

    I'm personally convinced February will be below average temperature wise, with opportunities for sustained and deep cold. Initially from the North, then Eventually the east.

    Albeit just my opinion of course

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Problem with that is, the ext ecm ensembles post day 10, don't support heights building.

     

    day 12 & day 14 Ext ECM Ens

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    day 15 GEFS

    Posted Image

    But the london ens clearly show the wide variation in the members that produce that mean. in the interests of having to make a forecast, you may as well pick the mean which is probably what exeter have done. Most of us would do the same. That doesnt change the fact that HLB appears to have a window of opportunity in the next two weeks.
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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

    Problem with that is, the ext ecm ensembles post day 10, don't support heights building.

     

    day 12 & day 14 Ext ECM Ens

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    day 15 GEFS

    Posted Image

     

    Take a closer look at that ECM ensemble mean - the azores high is moving west and pushing north. That is the signal others are also picking up. It's a good one.

     

    The GEFS ensemble mean is indeed less good, but it is a 15 day mean. At 360 hours - and especially from GFS - it does not "mean" a great deal. And actually it is not a million miles away from battleground UK...

     

    I learned to be wary of ensemble charts last year. They led us up the garden path in December 12, and watching them carefully I am now more sceptical overall. The ones that JH uses from NOAA are some of the better ones because Mon-Fri they have added human input and modification (not so over the weekend... so always be aware when looking at them that Sat/Sun runs are raw unmodified computer output) but the ones we get on meteociel and elsewhere must only be used alongside other tools.

     

    Having said that of course we would all like the ensemble means to follow other signals - so you are right to point out that they are yet to fall into line. But I think before long they will. Here is today's NOAA 8-14 day anomaly. It shows an absolutely 50/50 scenario. I think John said the other day in 4 years he had never seen a NOAA chart so neutral in terms of following patterns. This one today I think is the same... but I am one of those calling for a link up between the Azores and Arctic Highs. If that happens cold will come...

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Catacol_Highlander
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The METO are indicating a typical UK winter month for the first half of Feb, with temps around average and a cold N/W flow giving snowfalls from the Midlands North over high ground. We all know from the past that these set-ups can deliver some surprises, and with the uncertainty of this pattern change in mind (of which im sure they have) we could be looking at something completely different by then..

     

     "Some colder periods are likely, particularly between weather systems, with large variations possible day by day depending on the timings of weather systems."

    indeed PM   There is no downgrade and i think there is significantly more snow potential during february. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    But the london ens clearly show the wide variation in the members that produce that mean. in the interests of having to make a forecast, you may as well pick the mean which is probably what exeter have done. Most of us would do the same. That doesnt change the fact that HLB appears to have a window of opportunity in the next two weeks.

     

    Absolutely, as ever it would be great to see the postage stamps for this period, but alas...

    definite window, as you say, but I have the ec32 at the back of my mind among other things.... would love to see proper cold, but I just think we're on the wrong side of the coin toss this season.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

     

     

    Having said that of course we would all like the ensemble means to follow other signals - so you are right to point out that they are yet to fall into line. But I think before long they will. Here is today's CFS 8-14 day anomaly. It shows an absolutely 50/50 scenario. I think John said the other day in 4 years he had never seen a CFS chart so neutral in terms of following patterns. This one today I think is the same... but I am one of those calling for a link up between the Azores and Arctic Highs. If that happens cold will come...

     

     

     

    surely those charts are from NOAA?

    and sure, if they link, we could have a spell of some decent winter cold. As ever, time will tell!

    Edited by draztik
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