Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    After a colder run last night on the 12z the GFS 8 day temperature anomaly is back average or slightly above away from the far north of England, most of Scotland and Northern Ireland. A small part of northern wales is also slightly below average

     

    Posted Image

     

    yesterdays 00z to compare shows the 2 00z runs are not far off

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Summer Sun
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 2.6k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    But what if the zonal express is replaced by a Bartlett high? Coldies worst nightmare. However, I agree with those who think the outlook is more encouraging from a cold perspective than at any stage of this woeful winter so far.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    A split PV and the whole of February to enjoy it bring it on.....we deserve it

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011700/EDH1-240.GIF?17-12

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-21-1-240.png?0

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014011700/gemnh-0-240.png?00

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014011700/navgemnh-0-180.png?17-06

     

    Judging by the mood of some of the posts this morning,i think they must have slept with "Shannon" only to get out of the wrong side of the bed.

    Edited by winterof79
    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

    But what if the zonal express is replaced by a Bartlett high? Coldies worst nightmare. However, I agree with those who think the outlook is more encouraging from a cold perspective than at any stage of this woeful winter so far.

    That would have to be weighed up against the prospect of further very wet weather though Frosty IF the cold fails to deliver. At least a Bartlett would mean a lot more drier weather for the exceptionally soggy south, so I guess given the option of that or a repeat of Dec most would now choose the former...especially those with a high tide mark half way up their living room wall!!

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    to be very honest im very confident that the polar profiles are slowly edging in favour of a more blocked pattern every model shows a split in the vortex with a number of options that favour a more direct approach to cold.

    we just need to wait for the polar profile to take effect then the whole northern hemisphere pattern will switch and this switch is already pretty close its just placements of low pressure and high pressure that need to settle,

     

    over all there seems a persistent sign that heights will build towards the arctic cycle then possibly filtering into the eastern side of Greenland now of coarse some models don't show the arctic cycle heights,

    but have heights elsewhere other than the Canadian area where the vortex looks like remaining but certainly a clean split in the vortex.

     

    we do need the vortex to feed energy in towards the uk but because pressure is high around to our sw this is shifting everything ne but not on all models! some are showing more of a swing towards lower heights into Europe we need this we need energy to flatten the azores  and the jet to send energy se and this is a strong possibility!

     

    as the vortex weakens a little more as time progresses then allowing the jet to weaken,

    I really do think that the northern hemisphere is going into a major pattern change!.

     

    although finely balanced on the models the flip flopping continues with great interest this tells us they do not have a persistent pattern to show as of yet apart from the arctic height or some form of northern blocking. 

     

    by sunday we will for certain have a more consistent models output as by then heights will be established and any teleconnection will have also more consistency but like I said if all fails im with steve murr cooking sausages for next winter lol.

     

    its also worth taking a look at recent runs from the main models to work out which was the best at the scandi heights we have established now including longevity and mb strength and placement although as we seen in recent winters northern blocking when established are really rather robust and can hold on for a fair amount of time.

     

    in honesty its a stalemate but this battle can turn with a flip of a coin!

     

    it takes just one sharp shortwave to get south east then it can be cold,

    it can also work the other way.

     

    but do us model watchers really think the scandi heights are just gonna bow down and disappear because I bet a bottom dollar it wont be going to far to soon slight shift and everything is game on!,

    its so finely balanced and the models have ideas but not clearly in agreement.

     

    I see more in favour of cold than the zonal onslaught of December and remember its been a very vortex owned winter so far but feb is a month that changes are more likely than not.

    Depends because yes sometimes blocking to our N/NE doesn't deliver especially if we have a W based negative NAO. However sometimes it does i.e 2009/10. Using the GEFS ensembles for the period we are referring to i.e late Jan is pointless. I would rather use seaweed or a certain forecaster that the Daily Express uses for forecasts!

     

    Very much expecting some peachy charts to appear from the GFS over the next few days including the ECM when it comes in range.

    I agree tetis we been here before and you and many others more than myself.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

    to be very honest im very confident that the polar profiles are slowly edging in favour of a more blocked pattern every model shows a split in the vortex with a number of options that favour a more direct approach to cold.

    we just need to wait for the polar profile to take effect then the whole northern hemisphere pattern will switch and this switch is already pretty close its just placements of low pressure and high pressure that need to settle,

     

    over all there seems a persistent sign that heights will build towards the arctic cycle then possibly filtering into the eastern side of Greenland now of coarse some models don't show the arctic cycle heights,

    but have heights elsewhere other than the Canadian area where the vortex looks like remaining but certainly a clean split in the vortex.

     

    we do need the vortex to feed energy in towards the uk but because pressure is high around to our sw this is shifting everything ne but not on all models! some are showing more of a swing towards lower heights into Europe we need this we need energy to flatten the azores  and the jet to send energy se and this is a strong possibility!

     

    as the vortex weakens a little more as time progresses then allowing the jet to weaken,

    I really do think that the northern hemisphere is going into a major pattern change!.

     

    although finely balanced on the models the flip flopping continues with great interest this tells us they do not have a persistent pattern to show as of yet apart from the arctic height or some form of northern blocking. 

     

    by sunday we will for certain have a more consistent models output as by then heights will be established and any teleconnection will have also more consistency but like I said if all fails im with steve murr cooking sausages for next winter lol.

     

    its also worth taking a look at recent runs from the main models to work out which was the best at the scandi heights we have established now including longevity and mb strength and placement although as we seen in recent winters northern blocking when established are really rather robust and can hold on for a fair amount of time.

     

    in honesty its a stalemate but this battle can turn with a flip of a coin!

     

    it takes just one sharp shortwave to get south east then it can be cold,

    it can also work the other way.

     

    but do us model watchers really think the scandi heights are just gonna bow down and disappear because I bet a bottom dollar it wont be going to far to soon slight shift and everything is game on!,

    its so finely balanced and the models have ideas but not clearly in agreement.

     

    I see more in favour of cold than the zonal onslaught of December and remember its been a very vortex owned winter so far but feb is a month that changes are more likely than not.

    I agree tetis we been here before and you and many others more than myself.

    Indeed, NAVGEM is significantly quicker in building heights towards the Pole and although it's not a hugely consistent model (tho better than when it was NOGAPS) it does show just how quickly things can change way ooooop N.

     

    Posted Image

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    Sorry to quote you both, however I'm confused as to whether the ECM mean is blinkin' woeful or very encouraging. I'm naturally inclined towards the assessment of SK for a number of reasons but can anybody clarify why it can be construed to fall into either of these categories? Thank you

    I fail to see how it could be construed as woeful - a very strong (at this range) signal for an Arctic high along with the return of that Aleutian ridge, the Polar Vortex split (with a considerable chunk of it dropping into Eurasia), a NW-SE tilted jet, low heights remaining in Europe and noticeable amplification of the Azores high into the mid Atlantic, with some hints of heights building into Greenland.

    We haven't seen most of these features at all so far this winter and that we have at least some support from the GEFS is very encouraging to say the least. Whether or not the easterly we've been chasing develops this does look to be the next phase of the evolution driven by some big hemispheric changes.

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    After a colder run last night on the 12z the GFS 8 day temperature anomaly is back average or slightly above away from the far north of England, most of Scotland and Northern Ireland. A small part of northern wales is also slightly below average

     

    Posted Image

     

    yesterdays 00z to compare shows the 2 00z runs are not far off

     

    Posted Image

    I think the major changes will happen around day 8 to day 10.

    as for Bartlett highs oh please not likely with the northern hemisphere profile.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    I think the major changes will happen around day 8 to day 10.

    as for Bartlett highs oh please not likely with the northern hemisphere profile.

    yes shed lets not forget the jma

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

    and ironic that there is no arctic high as like the gfs ukmo so just shows there are so many different ideas.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Depends because yes sometimes blocking to our N/NE doesn't deliver especially if we have a W based negative NAO. However sometimes it does i.e 2009/10. Using the GEFS ensembles for the period we are referring to i.e late Jan is pointless. I would rather use seaweed or a certain forecaster that the Daily Express uses for forecasts!

     

    Very much expecting some peachy charts to appear from the GFS over the next few days including the ECM when it comes in range.

    Rock on TEITS! I dearly hope you're right it's just so ball achingly difficult to get cold here but I then I guess that's why so many on here are so fanatical about it's pursuit!

    If it were the default climate to get cold and snow we'd all be chasing elusive mild synoptics - human nature eh? ! Posted ImagePosted Image

    Edited by Purga
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Pretty much all the of the big 3 now agreeing on the azores high ridging in at around the 144h mark with a very positive NAO signature.

    Difficult to see Jan as anything other than a complete write off.

    We hope Feb can save the day as it were,a split vortex is looking likely but thats no guarentee of cold for the UK,if there is too much energy left to the north west then its still going to be an uphill struggle....

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Unless the mean ridge to our SW moves we won't benefit from any developments in the Arctic....just more of the same.

     

    BFTP

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    Anyone know what the latest EC32 is showing?

     

    Gav, the ec32 is very much like previous updates. From the beginning of February thru mid Feb It is showing troughing to our NW and N. By this stage any sign of Scandi blocking has all but gone. Temps look like being around average to slightly below.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

    Very -AO setting up , high pressure moving south over the pole towards Greenland , means one thing , southerly jet . post-9095-0-29590500-1389955152_thumb.jp

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    Second run in a row with an Arctic high and Greenland ridging at T260ish:

    6z

    Posted Image

     

    0z

    Posted Image

    Let's see if this signal can be maintained.

    Edited by Yarmy
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Flip flop flip flop on the models again this morning. A cold pattern getting close but never quite close enough.

    Interesting for me - by T144 the GFS and ECM have developed better cold pooling over Scandi and N Europe. If the Scandi High persists another week, we might be in more able to suck in genuine cold from the east.

    Also - can't help thinking the Azores High will eventually link up either with Scandi High or Arctic High via Greenland - probably by the end of the month. If so, how, where and when this happens might decide whether we really do get any deep cold out the main part of winter.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

     

    Very -AO setting up , high pressure moving south over the pole towards Greenland , means one thing , southerly jet . Posted Imageimage.jpg

     

    you would think so shaun but the extended ecm ens continue to run the northern arm through the uk after a short shift south around day 10/11.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    FI is all dancing and all singing for cold and snow, the Scandi High can do one! if the rewards are that good come the end of JanPosted Image

    But you said it Yarmy  "Let's see if this signal can be maintained".Posted Image

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    On the one hand, it's good to see the modelling of that E Pacific ridge extending north later next week along west Canadian coast/Alaska towards the North Pole, allowing upward propagation of WAA and height rises over the Pole. But on the other hand, and closer to home over the North Atlantic sector, we still have the problem of the low heights to the NW driving a strong flat jet towards the UK next week. A section of the Polar Vortex looks to drop south across Quebec early next week, which will only serve to invigorate the jet across the Atlantic towards the UK again, hence models keen on keeping the Atlantic low train running into the UK. 

     

    post-1052-0-73428500-1389956425_thumb.gi

     

    Given the east trough west ridge pattern looks to remain stagnant upstream over N America, with forcing NE of the Azores high, despite the polar height rises 8-10 days - we remain at the mercy of the Atlantic jet for the reliable timeframe.

     

    However, should forecast polar height rises manifest this side of the north pole over Greenland and the GIN corridor, I think we may see some interesting developments cold wise as we head towards the end of the month/early Feb. Already we are seeing interesting synoptics appear on the 00z and 06z GFS in FI.

    Edited by Nick F
    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Sorry to quote you both, however I'm confused as to whether the ECM mean is blinkin' woeful or very encouraging. I'm naturally inclined towards the assessment of SK for a number of reasons but can anybody clarify why it can be construed to fall into either of these categories? Thank you

     

    It does depend on which type of model you follow-the ups and downs of the synoptic outputs 2x or 4x daily or the anomaly charts I use which give a much more even idea of what the upper air is showing.

    of course even when the upper pattern is correct you then have the hugely difficult task of matching that upper air to a sensible idea of what is likely at the surface. Since meteorology began it has always been easier to get something akin to an actual chart at 500mb much more than at 1000mb-and remains so now.

    What I would suggest is when the anomaly charts are being consistent look at the synoptic model to match that with the best match to the anomaly charts. Then you will be reasonably near the pattern. Do NOT expect detail further out than 96h-120h rarely beyond this. If you do that then your ups and downs will be less frequent and your view of what might happen will stay on a more even keel.

    The major problem remains what happens to the upper flow which currently splits close to the UK. None of the anomaly charts, out to 14 days ahead, have yet suggested that problem will be solved.

    hope that helps a bit/

    Edited by johnholmes
    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manhattan, USA
  • Location: Manhattan, USA

    Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

     

    If only Models were 100% correct way out into FI...

     

    All this talk of Look East.... Look NORTH.

     

    Lets hope the trend continues.

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    • Cool Showerfest continues for the next week. Hints of a change beyond that?

      With the jet stream close to the south and low pressure nearby over the next 7 days, expect showers or longer spells of rain over many areas, staying cool too, with temperatures below average. But hints of something drier and more settled arriving next weekend. View the full blog here

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Michael Fish: More May showers this weekend and next week

      Michael Fish presents his latest weekly forecast, and if you're hoping for a change to more summery weather, it's not good news. Watch the video here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-05-14 09:22:46 Valid: 14/05/2021 0600 - 15/05/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRIDAY 14TH MAY 2021 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...