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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: North Norfolk/Southampton
  • Location: North Norfolk/Southampton

    Well in the game of weather snakes and ladders we seem to have landed on a anaconda this morning-Out of all the ECM charts at day 10 this year that havent varified i bet the one with the whopping great storm does!!

    Couldn't agree more. So frustrating but always on the cards with the jet powering up? The 240 chart from last night's 12h also suggested this. I guess we've seen this week that FI is at a short timescale but we seem to be stuck in a rut of nomansland at present.
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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Well in the game of weather snakes and ladders we seem to have landed on a anaconda this morning-

    Out of all the ECM charts at day 10 this year that havent varified i bet the one with the whopping great storm does!!

    hello steve I expect some of the more less experienced model watchers are wondering what the hell is going on.

    but one thing ive noticed this morning chino feb cold could well become the real deal why well we need to look at more of the hemispheric charts rather than the European charts.

    firstly the gfs

    Posted Image

    notice the wedge of higher heights into the artic cycle......

     

    now the ecm

    Posted Image

    also has this height rise very impressive height rise not a nice area for it just yet but theres a chance this could well filter into the Greenland area in time.

     

    ukmo

    Posted Image

    ukmo has the pressure rising at t144hrs around the same area as the gfs they all hold potential futher down the line and all models have a total split of the vortex its very possible this will evolve into something much better over the next 10 days.

     

    I know steve m for one has found this morning a disappointment but I don't agree this time!

     

    I will wait until the end of the weekend to see if the potential rises. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    Just a quickie.

     

    Looks like this stalemate is going to continue but personally I don't care as the end of Jan/early Feb is more interesting to me. The models suggest increasing heights across the pole with winter arriving in the UK from the N, not the E. Also the E side of the US/Canada will also be hit by a big freeze whilst the W remains milder.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    How do members describe very zonal?Is very zonal, the rapid movement of low pressures from west to east? UKMO doesn't show that though as low pressures become slow moving near us bit like a log jam.

    Being at the end of a zonal train rather than a station on its route is more often than not the worse case scenario if rain is not your thing. Semantics aside it is a poor chart if you are looking for cold. I would rather have the PV overwhelm the block, blow itself out and maybe get an Atlantic ridge down the line as the Pacific ridge amplifies the pattern up stream. GFS has this as one of its clusters.I have called time on January for a wintry setup a while back and we must now hope that Feb does not ebb away.
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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

    ECM op is from the progressive side of the ens this morning with the trough disruption just a bit far ne but still ne UK looks open to wintry conditions next week. Note that whist the x model T96-T192 period looks difficult, the days 9/10 charts seem to be settling on the strong jet streak taking the depression through (at what track unknown). The polar profile then dictates what follows and it could be very wintry if the current trend continues. not surprised by some of the posts this morning but you need to stand back a bit and look at th NH as well as Atlantic.

    Whilst I agree with what your saying , there is also denying the ukmo/ECM is what I would call zonal, very progressive with taking the depressions east , on the plus side , there's not any more chance of them been right than they were 12 hours ago , but If we're to stand a chance of snow next week then we urgently need a correction west because the models will agree on it and settle on it in the next 24hrs or so .
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)

    Well in the game of weather snakes and ladders we seem to have landed on a anaconda this morning-Out of all the ECM charts at day 10 this year that havent varified i bet the one with the whopping great storm does!!

    Steve this word should be added to the Netweather directory.  It combines verified with varied and hence is perfect for the MOD!

     

    AS

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Important to keep an eye on projections for northern hemisphere as a whole i.e. arctic profile - as it is these which will dictate state of play longer term. There are emerging signs of quite a shift in the pattern upstream which in all likelihood will result in a different pattern for our part of the world - one much more conducive for cold, but will probably not be until the very tail end of the month before we can be certain of such changes..

     

    In the meantime staying preety unsettled with the troublesome trough going nowhere fast, meaning more rain, showers and limited dry weather with temps around average in the north but a bit above in the south with some quite mild maxima on occasion in southern parts.. Whilst the reliable timeframe paints a non-wintry outlook, there are building blocks developing which could mean a much more wintry outlook as we enter February.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Just a quickie.

     

    Looks like this stalemate is going to continue but personally I don't care as the end of Jan/early Feb is more interesting to me. The models suggest increasing heights across the pole with winter arriving in the UK from the N, not the E. Also the E side of the US/Canada will also be hit by a big freeze whilst the W remains milder.

    funny I know this is of topic lol but I had a dream about the charts last night and woke up this morning think about winter 09/10 when north and north east flows were of plenty I feel that with the hemispheric changes that this is a strong possibility.

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    Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

    ECM op is from the progressive side of the ens this morning with the trough disruption just a bit far ne but still ne UK looks open to wintry conditions next week.

    Note that whist the x model T96-T192 period looks difficult, the days 9/10 charts seem to be settling on the strong jet streak taking the depression through (at what track unknown). The polar profile then dictates what follows and it could be very wintry if the current trend continues. not surprised by some of the posts this morning but you need to stand back a bit and look at th NH as well as Atlantic.

    You are rapidly becoming the new Frosty ba...Posted Image Agree though that if there has ever been a time during this extended Autumn to step back and look at the bigger picture, then this is it.  On the face of it the charts still look far from inspiring within 1500 miles of the UK, but towards months end the Arctic pattern is being progged to undergo significant changes, which are not ones that will takes weeks to make themselves felt across the UK. Said in the Moans thread yesterday that the next week to 10 day represents the pivitol point for the rest of Winter and this morning I'm again rather more encouraged that things will fall on the right side of the fence. 

    Edited by shedhead
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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    hello steve I expect some of the more less experienced model watchers are wondering what the hell is going on.

    but one thing ive noticed this morning chino feb cold could well become the real deal why well we need to look at more of the hemispheric charts rather than the European charts.

    firstly the gfs

    Posted Image

    notice the wedge of higher heights into the artic cycle......

     

    now the ecm

    Posted Image

    also has this height rise very impressive height rise not a nice area for it just yet but theres a chance this could well filter into the Greenland area in time.

     

    ukmo

    Posted Image

    ukmo has the pressure rising at t144hrs around the same area as the gfs they all hold potential futher down the line and all models have a total split of the vortex its very possible this will evolve into something much better over the next 10 days.

     

    I know steve m for one has found this morning a disappointment but I don't agree this time!

     

    I will wait until the end of the weekend to see if the potential rises. 

    and if the potential drops then im joining steves camp to bbq some sausages.

    solar activity has dropped dramatically also ive been having the argument about solar activity and our weather I strongly believe that solar activity does have a more quicker effect.

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25771510

    Edited by emotional rollercoaster
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    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

    This chart probably sums up perfectly all thats wrong with the NWP this morning-i mentioned yesterday about the ukmo run looking to send the Atlantic energy NE and we can see from the ECM what is likely to happen thereafter---

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

    leading to-

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

    GFS offers some hope in FI but im afraid its a poor set of 0z runs for cold weather fans,little point dressing it up any other way.:(

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    Posted
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(

    Just a quickie.

     

    Looks like this stalemate is going to continue but personally I don't care as the end of Jan/early Feb is more interesting to me. The models suggest increasing heights across the pole with winter arriving in the UK from the N, not the E. Also the E side of the US/Canada will also be hit by a big freeze whilst the W remains milder.

     

    Could be right there Dave.

     

    With the Northern hemisphere going through changes (as in the PV waning and pressure increasing over the pole) there looks like a decent possibilty of a trough sitting over us or slightly to our east with a strong Azores high on a SE/NW tilt. From there there would be every chance of a link up between to the two. Something that may may start to show up on ensembles.

    post-4955-0-99364700-1389947168_thumb.pn

    post-4955-0-52323900-1389947296_thumb.pn

    Edited by Nicholas B
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    Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

    Some surprised viewers that another ECM easterly has backtracked? This morning 0z run:

     

     T240: Posted ImageECM1-240 (4).gif

     

    Surely these charts shouldn't come as much of a surprise? Take a look at the upper level forecasts:

     

    post-1957-0-23747900-1389947577_thumb.pn

     

    To me that shows a shallow ridge over the mid Atlantic and a trough digging SE towards Europe. Granted, the Surface Level charts only represent one solution given the upper air profile, but the upper level charts have been fairly stable for a few days and the outcome presented by NWP this morning seems to have a reasonable chance of verification. The fly in the ointment is the higher anomalies over the Arctic and towards Scandinavia; at the moment, the anomalies are oriented in such a way that it appears difficult for colder air at the surface to move West. As the UK appears sandwiched between in an upper trough between two slices of higher anomalies it seems sensible for the models to forecast as shown in the overnight output. Of course, there will be variations at the surface which may deliver cold in one way or another, but it looks like some very careful threading is needed!

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    Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
    Good morning folks. Here is my report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday January 17th 2014.
     
    All models show Low pressure to the NW of the UK> Winds will be slack over today and the weekend with sunny spells and showers today with coastal areas most at risk from these. Tonight and tomorrow sees a front over the SE later today move West and North across the UK becoming lodged South to north across SW England and Wales tomorrow with heavy rain at times here before the front moves bodily East tomorrow evening to return a mix of sunshine and showers again on Sunday, these chiefly in the SW. Monday then sees a brighter day and many places may see a dry day while the West continues the risk of some showers. Temperatures will remain close to average through the period.
     
    GFS then shows that from Tuesday unsettled weather moves back in from the Atlantic with spells of rain and showers blowing through on the Westerly winds which will become quite brisk at times. Then through the latter stages of this morning's run the weather remains very unsettled and windy as deep Low pressure revolves around the UK continuing to feed areas of rain and showers with snow on Northern hills at times in temperatures near to or a little below average, especially in the North.
     
    The GFS Ensembles show complete domination by Atlantic pressure systems through the output this morning with nearly all members offering only short drier spells between the rain bands with little or no sign of any dry and cold weather in sight.
     
    UKMO today on Thursday shows Low pressure to the North of the Uk with a blustery Westerly wind carrying a trough East across the UK through the day bringing yet more rain. Temperatures would be close to average.
     
    GEM today keeps Low pressure across the UK as it fills later in the week. Pressure remains higher on this model to the North and NE later feeding some colder air into the mix but away from the hills outbreaks of rain rather than snow would be likely.
     
    NAVGEM keeps Low pressure feeding down over the UK from the NW later next week with further rain at times and perhaps some snow on Northern hills at times, especially towards the far NE.
     
    ECM shows rising pressure from the SW for a time later next week reducing rainfall amounts in the South for a time while maintaining relatively mild and breezy Westerly winds. Later in the run and over next weekend deep Low pressure will slip back down from the North with outbreaks of rain and showers in strong winds for all to end the run.
     
    The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts shows the trend for renewed Low pressure to become established just to the North of the UK with unstable Westerly winds and rain at times for all the most likely outcome for all from ECM Ensembles in 10 Days time.
     
     
    The Jet Stream shows little signs of significant change in it's trajectory and movements over the next few weeks as far as the UK is concerned. there will be occasional shifting of lifting the flow over the UK at times from a position to the South for much of the time feeding off the Atlantic.
     
    In Summary the weather is continuing to look very Atlantic based over the next few weeks with rain at times from Low pressure areas drifting SE over the UK at first and then perhaps Low pressure maintaining a more Northerly position close to Scotland later next week. These synoptic changes will make little difference to us at the surface as we will all continue to see rain at times in temperatures close to average though some colder air could feed into Northern areas at times firstly from the East and later from the NW but overall there remains little or no chance of anything significantly wintry indicated from any output this morning.
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl

    VERY encouraging ensemble mean from the ECM:

     

    Posted Image

     

    GEFS not too far behind either but with less agreement on heights over the pole:

     

    Posted Image

     

    A lot then becomes reliant on the remaining Atlantic energy clearing to a favourable position but ensembles certainly keen to build heights to the North (be that Directly North or North-West) of the UK in 10 days time. We should always remain vigilant when outputs start to develop and Arctic high as with little operational data input from those regions NWP can struggle to deal with such a feature, but cautious optimism should be the flavour of the day.

     

    SK

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    In the meantime all the main models this morning serve us up a continuing crapfest.

     

    ENS wet zonal / mild - average

     

    Posted Image

     

    Next...Posted Image

     

    PS: Please bear in mind that even with wonderful NH charts appearing in the FI realm etc this Country is notoriously badly situated for cold. I've so often glumly watched as the almost perfect synoptic setups have given us near miss after near miss with mainland Europe copping mega snow and cold and the UK naff all. Only to then see the wonderful synoptics seep away and mediocrity to continue with it's dull grey oppression!

    Edited by Purga
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Surely these charts shouldn't come as much of a surprise? Take a look at the upper level forecasts:

     

    Posted ImageUpper16012014.png

     

    To me that shows a shallow ridge over the mid Atlantic and a trough digging SE towards Europe. Granted, the Surface Level charts only represent one solution given the upper air profile, but the upper level charts have been fairly stable for a few days and the outcome presented by NWP this morning seems to have a reasonable chance of verification. The fly in the ointment is the higher anomalies over the Arctic and towards Scandinavia; at the moment, the anomalies are oriented in such a way that it appears difficult for colder air at the surface to move West. As the UK appears sandwiched between in an upper trough between two slices of higher anomalies it seems sensible for the models to forecast as shown in the overnight output. Of course, there will be variations at the surface which may deliver cold in one way or another, but it looks like some very careful threading is needed!

     

    well put in my view, the anomaly charts have been pretty stable as you say over the last few days. The issue remains, as it shows most times on synoptic outputs, is what happens to the upper trough that splits just west of the UK. The EC-GFS link for this morning below, show much the same as NOAA shown above, marked ridging across most of the far north, troughing in the middle and a pretty persistent upper ridge in the Atlantic. Quite what will happen is totally foxing me and what sort of time scale. Just what is going to change this quite persistent pattern is hard to work out. Will it be events in the Stratosphere or something nothing to do with that below the Tropopause. No one knows so we have to wait to see what may unfold eventually. Fascinating for those who enjoy these weather conundrums but I can imagine cold lovers are becoming quite fed up?

    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

    Edited by johnholmes
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    well put in my view, the anomaly charts have been pretty stable as you say over the last few days. The issue remains, as it shows most times on synoptic outputs, is what happens to the upper trough that splits just west of the UK. The EC-GFS link for this morning below, show much the same as NOAA shown above, marked ridging across most of the far north, troughing in the middle and a pretty persistent upper ridge in the Atlantic. Quite what will happen is totally foxing me and what sort of time scale. Just what is going to change this quite persistent pattern is hard to work out. Will it be events in the Stratosphere or something nothing to do with that below the Tropopause. No one knows so we have to wait to see what may unfold eventually. Fascinating for those who enjoy these weather conundrums but I can imagine cold lovers are becoming quite fed up?

    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

    Th ecm mean looks blinkin woeful John.

    GFS offers a bit more hope of retrogression in the Atlantic.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    VERY encouraging ensemble mean from the ECM:

     

    Posted Image

     

    GEFS not too far behind either but with less agreement on heights over the pole:

     

    Posted Image

     

    A lot then becomes reliant on the remaining Atlantic energy clearing to a favourable position but ensembles certainly keen to build heights to the North (be that Directly North or North-West) of the UK in 10 days time. We should always remain vigilant when outputs start to develop and Arctic high as with little operational data input from those regions NWP can struggle to deal with such a feature, but cautious optimism should be the flavour of the day.

     

    SK

     

    Yep, a continuation from yesterday with us rolling a 1 and 2 on the dice this time around. Certainly things are shaping up nicely for a good window of opportunity for a decent cold spell towards the end of the month. We just need a bit of luck thrown in with where and how the vortex displaces and/or splits in the build up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

     

     

    PS: Please bear in mind that even with wonderful NH charts appearing in the FI realm etc this Country is notoriously badly situated for cold. I've so often glumly watched as the almost perfect synoptic setups have given us near miss after near miss with mainland Europe copping mega snow and cold and the UK naff all. Only to then see the wonderful synoptics seep away and mediocrity to continue with it's dull grey oppression!

     

    Depends because yes sometimes blocking to our N/NE doesn't deliver especially if we have a W based negative NAO. However sometimes it does i.e 2009/10. Using the GEFS ensembles for the period we are referring to i.e late Jan is pointless. I would rather use seaweed or a certain forecaster that the Daily Express uses for forecasts!

     

    Very much expecting some peachy charts to appear from the GFS over the next few days including the ECM when it comes in range.

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    Posted
  • Location: Clwydian Hills 210/300 Metres ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Clwydian Hills 210/300 Metres ASL

    VERY encouraging ensemble mean from the ECM:

     

    Posted Image

     

    GEFS not too far behind either but with less agreement on heights over the pole:

     

    Posted Image

     

    A lot then becomes reliant on the remaining Atlantic energy clearing to a favourable position but ensembles certainly keen to build heights to the North (be that Directly North or North-West) of the UK in 10 days time. We should always remain vigilant when outputs start to develop and Arctic high as with little operational data input from those regions NWP can struggle to deal with such a feature, but cautious optimism should be the flavour of the day.

     

    SK

    well put in my view, the anomaly charts have been pretty stable as you say over the last few days. The issue remains, as it shows most times on synoptic outputs, is what happens to the upper trough that splits just west of the UK. The EC-GFS link for this morning below, show much the same as NOAA shown above, marked ridging across most of the far north, troughing in the middle and a pretty persistent upper ridge in the Atlantic. Quite what will happen is totally foxing me and what sort of time scale. Just what is going to change this quite persistent pattern is hard to work out. Will it be events in the Stratosphere or something nothing to do with that below the Tropopause. No one knows so we have to wait to see what may unfold eventually. Fascinating for those who enjoy these weather conundrums but I can imagine cold lovers are becoming quite fed up?

    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

    Th ecm mean looks blinkin woeful John.

    GFS offers a bit more hope of retrogression in the Atlantic.

    Sorry to quote you both, however I'm confused as to whether the ECM mean is blinkin' woeful or very encouraging. I'm naturally inclined towards the assessment of SK for a number of reasons but can anybody clarify why it can be construed to fall into either of these categories? Thank you
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    Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)

    Woken again by rain hammering against my bedroom window, I decided to have a peak at how the forecast synoptics were looking during the early morning. What I found fascinating on looking at the overnight model runs is how the upper air pattern is being forecast to evolve, as we head into the last 3rd of January, in terms of the Northern Hemisphere.

     

    If mods will allow me a little cross-pollinating from the Stratosphere thread briefly Posted Image , my mind became alerted to a couple of posts from Interitus and Tamara, that I'd read on that thread, prior to Christmas. These were discussing the chances of a Stratospheric warming occuring in Jan/Feb this Winter, given the following background teleconnecting factors: westerly QBO, neutral ENSO signal and -PDO. Here below is part of Tamara's post, at that time:

     

    Quote: "For westerly QBO, broadly neutral ENSO, and -PDO years there have been no significant warmings over the last 50 to 60 years in January. With the solar state in the equation then late January and February holds better possibilities as often stated on here. With the above dynamics in mind, then we require the +QBO to weaken significantly in coming weeks to not just allow this potential Asian MT to be as effective as possible, but we also require the persistence of the Eastern Pacific ridge to sustain and increase the wave 2 activity on the vortex. As wavelengths grow through the winter, the wave activity should become increasingly effective, but its quite an ask to expect any forecasted warming to work effectively as early as from the first part of January

     

    We saw the strong Eastern Pacific ridge in winter 08/09 just like now,, so we get an idea of what might be possible over the coming weeks if the above factors play out favourably and wave activity is sustained." 

     

    As we know, the skies are littered with many mid to long range forecasts being blown away, like confetti on the wind, based solely on synoptic pattern matching alone (esp. 1 year). But given this Winters's teleconnecting factors,it may be worth taking a closer look at Jan. 2009, in terms of how that month developed synoptically, especially with regard to the upper air profile, over the Northern Hemisphere, during the last 10 days or so. What really is striking about the last 3rd of Jan. 2009 is how similar the NH synoptic profile of that year is starting to resemble this late Jan., from the model's perspective. Paying particular attention to the unfolding scenario upstream, with the pattern becoming highly amplified over the East Pacific/West coast U.S, with a strong upper ridge building north to Alaska and aiding the formation of an Arctic High, just north of that location. This in turn leading to a broad upper trough plunging south through the C and E. U.S. Also worth noting is the similarity synoptically, over Russia now, and indeed in 2009, I'm speaking in broad, general terms here. Below are 2 charts to illustrate my thoughts, a brief snapshot in time of course.

     

    ECM t168 2014.

     

    Posted Image

     

    21st Jan.2009.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Again I want to reiterate, a micro moment pattern match for sure but certainly interesting, given broadly similar background factors this year and the Winter of 2008/09.

     

    Quick thank you to Interitus and Tamara for quoting there discussions on the Strat. thread, back in December. And Tams keep up the great work you're doing, both here on and the Strat thread, informative and well balanced as ever, just hope I havnt plagiarised your work too much. Posted Image

     

    So anyone for a cold and snowy easterly by the 2nd week in February? Posted Image  From my IMBY perpective, I certainly hope so.......of course, my profound apologies to anyone reading this and living in Galway! Posted Image

     

    Tom.

    Now that's the sort of lateral thinking I'm loving all you posters this morning….

    post-19044-0-39730000-1389951571_thumb.j

    From this...

    Posted Image

     

    To this….

    Posted Image

     

    To this!

    Posted Image

     

    Which meant this (from Met Office archive)...

     

    February 2 - 6 Heavy snowfalls in eastern England, with significant travel disruption in London and the south-east.

    There were heavy snowfalls in many parts of eastern England overnight 1st/2nd, with widespread travel disruption. London and parts of Essex, Kent, Surrey and Hampshire were particularly badly affected, but there was also disruption in parts of northern and eastern England. Runways were closed at Heathrow, all London buses were stopped and vehicles were abandoned in the Yorkshire Wolds.

     

    Nothing ever goes quite the same I know but it's yet another reminder to all the naysayers and doom mongers that big changes can happen quickly and the potential height rises downstream, should they occur as modelled, could signal the beginning of a very significant change in our weather - not before time. Nicholas B's highlight of P3 in the latest ensembles is only further evidence of what could happen. Not saying will, just saying could.

     

    For those who missed it...

    Posted Image

     

    Which would lead to this...

    post-19044-0-03670300-1389951465_thumb.j

    Let's stay positive…this zonal nonsense can't carry on forever, that's impossible (isn't it?)

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

    I thnk we can safely say a split in the PV is going to occur. But the question is, where is the merry-go-round of the vortext going to split and will it be advantageous to us. Models will be be all over the place until vefy shortly before the split occurs. 

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    • Staying cool and showery with heavy, thundery downpours

      The weather continues on with its cool, showery and unsettled pattern, with more heavy downpours during the next few days. Then, to finish the week, a deep low arrives bringing a spell of wet and windy conditions. Read the full update here

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      UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-05-18 06:21:01 Valid: 18/05/2021 0600 - 19/05/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - TUES 18TH MAY 2021 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Strong winds from an Atlantic low later this week adding to cool, wet May

      May 2021 has been colder than average with a lot of rain for some parts of the UK. A low pressure heading in for the end of the week could bring gales. Read more here

      Jo Farrow
      Jo Farrow
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
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