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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Day 8 chart of the winter so far?!?!

    Posted ImageECH1-192.GIF.png

     

     

    I keep hitting refresh, I want to see D9!

    I jinxed it! it probably was for the best otherwise there would have been far too much expectations in here, but if you get that cross polar flow and the block where it is I would say it would turn out differently.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Well the ECM gets the Atlantic in (for a limited time only), only because the Canadian vortex self destructs from the 3 way pressure on it. Great run

    Posted Image

    Could we be trending to a monster -AO Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    Read back a few pages as the GFS has been and gone.

     

    Or better still have a go at learning to reading it for yourself.

    GFS =Mild........just a stab in the dark though, with may be a high pressure in the wrong place for any cold over the UK, another stab in the dark. Screaming jet not allowing any blocking to become established. Am I  learning fast?Posted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Check out the 850 Temps on the ECM at 240hrs! Could deliver some of the white stuff especially in the NW

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    That`s it, too much eye candy in FI. Probably will not verify but who cares, say as you see.

    Posted Image

    would be brutally cold where i am on this chart

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

    And at 240hrs BOOM! 

    Not only could the Atlantic influence only be temporary from that chart , you have -10 uppers coming into Ireland from the West, Snow somewhere from that ECM run 100%

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    So after all the trials and tribulations of the evening the forecast for the UK is ???????

     

    In terms of the upstream pattern there is the matter of when and if it amplifies because that will help determine the sharpness of any troughing to the west, there was some interesting comments by NCEP a few days back about these shortwaves dropping se and there was some uncertainty as to whether they would interact with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic, that's pretty crucial to our side of the pond.

     

    I'm sure we all remember the inland runner low drama, that was one of those situations where the models weren't sure of what interaction would take place, the ECM had that GOM interaction and was the first to develop the deeper more amplified low, we need to see more developments with a deeper low and more amplified over the USA to increase the margin for error downstream.

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    Lol the UK is under colder 850hpa than Alaska for that chart!What would happen if "warm" uppers got within the Arctic circle?

    Plenty of space for the Azores high to fit BETWEEN the vortex ;-)

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

    post-2826-0-87586000-1389899762_thumb.pn

     

    The 12z GFS was a clear outlier for Avg Temp ... Most members much Colder, the Control run was a very Cold run . 

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Now this is confusing, this from the West Virginia state forecast:

     

    THEN...BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM INLINE WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHAS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.ALL ASPECTS OF THIS LOW WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THEPREVIOUS TWO...INCLUDING THE COLD AIR POOL BEHIND IT. LONG TERMOPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE THIS LOW AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING ANOREASTER INTO ATLANTIC CANADA WITH EXPLOSIVE GROWTH BY WEDNESDAY.

     

    Look at the GFS/ECM/UKMO outputs, wheres the nor easter, nowhere they don't develop this, the only model that does is the GEM. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    Now this is confusing, this from the West Virginia state forecast:

     

    THEN...BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM INLINE WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHAS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.ALL ASPECTS OF THIS LOW WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THEPREVIOUS TWO...INCLUDING THE COLD AIR POOL BEHIND IT. LONG TERMOPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE THIS LOW AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING ANOREASTER INTO ATLANTIC CANADA WITH EXPLOSIVE GROWTH BY WEDNESDAY.

     

    Look at the GFS/ECM/UKMO outputs, wheres the nor easter, nowhere they don't develop this, the only model that does is the GEM. 

    Explosive growth? Obviously the BOM they are following?

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

     

    Posted Imageavg temp.png

     

    The 12z GFS was a clear outlier for Avg Temp ... Most members much Colder, the Control run was a very Cold run . 

     

    only at the very end chris. tbh, i wondered if the 06z gefs had flipped but looking through the wide variation of solutions, it was clear they had not. the 12z's as progressive as ever, especially post T192. at some point the gefs will realise whats going on, especially over the arctic.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    Now this is confusing, this from the West Virginia state forecast: THEN...BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM INLINE WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHAS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.ALL ASPECTS OF THIS LOW WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THEPREVIOUS TWO...INCLUDING THE COLD AIR POOL BEHIND IT. LONG TERMOPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE THIS LOW AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING ANOREASTER INTO ATLANTIC CANADA WITH EXPLOSIVE GROWTH BY WEDNESDAY. Look at the GFS/ECM/UKMO outputs, wheres the nor easter, nowhere they don't develop this, the only model that does is the GEM.

    Flicking through the thread on my way home I can recall a comment from Ian F that he was astonished with this evenings Gem as its solution was so different to the other models (ECM not out when posted) would the above be good?
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Now this is confusing, this from the West Virginia state forecast:

     

    THEN...BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM INLINE WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHAS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.ALL ASPECTS OF THIS LOW WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THEPREVIOUS TWO...INCLUDING THE COLD AIR POOL BEHIND IT. LONG TERMOPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE THIS LOW AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING ANOREASTER INTO ATLANTIC CANADA WITH EXPLOSIVE GROWTH BY WEDNESDAY.

     

    Look at the GFS/ECM/UKMO outputs, wheres the nor easter, nowhere they don't develop this, the only model that does is the GEM. 

     

    It is of course a human interpretation of what a model is showing, man/machine almost always superior to machine on its own. However, it is easy enough to see how correct they are but you all have to wait until next Tue-Wed; a huge time interval in meteorology.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    I think the BOMS been put out of its misery! back to that discussion we want the nor easter storm because this will pull the Azores high west and develop a ridge in between the USA low and troughing near the UK this will help sharpen the trough and then you're more likely to get this further west and disrupting more favourably.

    It hasn`t quite but it has gone ballistic...

    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzireg&lc=europe&mt=accessg&mso=0&mc=850tmphgt&focus=mc

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Although the irony of this-

     

    The Scandi shortwave at T0 does a complete LAP of scandi to end up in exactly the wrong place again at 240-  watch it go round-

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

     

    S

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