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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    theres an awful lot of blocking across most of the models some of this blocking is looking rather tastey futher on in outputs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    I suspect the azores high will be the spoiler there Eagle,look at the progression from 120 to 144h,suggests the energy going into the northern arm soonafter...

    Yes,gets rid of that blasted azores high!! Posted Image

    Agreed Cecil,

     

    You can also see shortwave energy spilling past Southern Greenland, which is normally a game over for Easterlies.

     

    The Scand High is however proving stubborn to shift, that's for sure.

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heatwaves & thunderstorms
  • Location: North East Essex

    The GFS highlights a key concern. Any warming which does dismantle the PV, needs to clear it from southern and central Greenland at the very least, and preferably from the whole of Greenland, to allow the high pressure to build there. However this is still in FI thankfully!!

    Edited by pandit-scholar
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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Added to that the METO further outlook and a recent backing away of MOGREPS from a potential easterly and its not a pretty picture.

     

    Obviously with blocking to the NE there is some ambiguity but at this juncture, i'm underwhelmed....

    When was this then? I understood from Fergie earlier that MOGREPS had upped the odds in favour of an easterly recently??

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    you coudnt write it could you?low moves north east and cuts the flow offPosted Image Posted Image

     

     Wouldn't worry too much past 96h... This was from five days ago, for today.

     

    Posted Image

     

    And this what we've ended up with,

     

    Posted Image

    So regarding anything that far ahead ...(low moves north east and cuts the flow off)..... DON'T WORRYPosted Image

    Edited by Dancerwithwings
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    Agreed Cecil,

     

    You can also see shortwave energy spilling past Southern Greenland, which is normally a game over for Easterlies.

     

    The Scand High is however proving stubborn to shift, that's for sure.

    Yes-i m very suprsied to see UKMO described as great,IMHO it isn't,for the reasons i have alluded too.....The block is doing its best to repel the Atlantic,but i fear it will be a losing battle,as ever,time will tell!:)

    When was this then? I understood from Fergie earlier that MOGREPS had upped the odds in favour of an easterly recently??

    Nope-its reduced the chances.:)

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    When was this then? I understood from Fergie earlier that MOGREPS had upped the odds in favour of an easterly recently??

     

     

    Update (just off blower to UKMO) - midnight MOGREPS-15 reduced easterly signal to circa 25% members for end of next week (so dropping back closer to expectations and in line with EC). Nonetheless, dichotomy of solutions is being watched very closely and the overriding message from Ops Centre is that the easterly solution remains very much a possibility and is by no means discounted at this juncture. Confidence low. However, rain Sat on occlusion in W Country northwards grabs the attention for now.... not good.

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    Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

    It's the Canadian Global Model's wholly different prognosis into further reaches that grabbed my attention. Astonishingly different outcome on every level.

    Yes, this chart at the end of the run is rather intriguing

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    The Arctic High is the key to the UKMO - with the Scandi heights ridging right to the pole it makes it significantly more difficult for the jet energy to head northeast than if we were looking at a straightforward +AO pattern. Without this it wouldn't be a particularly great chart, but it's one of the few charts not in FI which has even hinted at proper HLB this winter:

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Yes-i m very suprsied to see UKMO described as great,IMHO it isn't,for the reasons i have alluded too.....The block is doing its best to repel the Atlantic,but i fear it will be a losing battle,as ever,time will tell!Posted Image

    Nope-its reduced the chances.Posted Image

    OK I missed the latest but note that "overriding message from Ops Centre is that the easterly solution remains very much a possibility and is by no means discounted at this juncture."

    Still massive uncertainty.

    Edited by Purga
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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    The low on the Eastern Seaboard kicks off the Greenland ridge at T138:

     

    Posted Image

     

    Then there's no stopping it. Small window of opportunity, so probably pretty unlikely.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Yes-i m very suprsied to see UKMO described as great,IMHO it isn't,for the reasons i have alluded too.....The block is doing its best to repel the Atlantic,but i fear it will be a losing battle,as ever,time will tell!Posted Image

    Nope-its reduced the chances.Posted Image

     

    If you read the Ian F latest post you will see you are wrong

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    So the the GFS and UKMO keep us in a stalemate, though the UKMO does have reinforcements coming across the pole from the Pacific ridge.

    Note the GEM produces a much stronger Atlantic ridge and surprise surprise we hit the block winning end game with easterlies setting up shop across the UK.

    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    post from Ian

    ergieweather, on 16 Jan 2014 - 11:10, said:Posted Image

    Actually as of last night, 50% of MOGREPS members heralded an easterly by next Fri and that suite is currently exhibiting near record high levels of Shannon entropy out through day 10 onward. Given some support (albeit still minority) in EC ENS for cut-off low to SE and easterly feed, UKMO urging caution on being too prescriptive end of next week onwards, despite majority westerly solutions. In short: nothing yet discounted.

     

    although you quote today is that from your own private link into it?

    Edited by johnholmes
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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

    It's the Canadian Global Model's wholly different prognosis into further reaches that grabbed my attention. Astonishingly different outcome on every level.

     

    That GEM run is in line with the strat signals I alluded to earlier. Berlin run of strat at 100hPa and 70hPa suggests a signal for heights rising towards Greenland in the medium range. This was why I posted earlier that I think we might be better off seeing the atlantic win through over the next week so that we can help enhance that signal.

     

    The GEM chart for 192 nails it exactly

     

    Posted Image

     

    and if the ECM suggested movement of the vortex in the lower strat towards the east come true in the same kind of time scale then a proper easterly in on the cards. Here is the 100hPa at 192 showing the core of the vortex back east.

     

    Posted Image

     

    I think its worth adding that we are now very definitely into a totally new phase of this winter because stratospheric forcings are changing substantially. There is a lot of discussion over on the Strat thread as to whether we are heading for a technically correct SSW or not... but in terms of tropospheric modelling - whether we get an SSW or not -  the next 4 - 6 weeks will be nothing like the last 4 - 6 weeks. Model uncertainty is increasing because the atlantic train is slowing substantially. Cold air coming off Canada will not be as destructive, and blocking to our east is certain now to be enhanced for the remainder of winter proper. Whether we get the perfect scenario for cold remains to be seen, but I would increasingly be tempted to discard extended GFS output as it is well known for ramping up the zonal pattern.

     

    The key I think is going to be getting the wave 1 warming at the end of January to shove the vortex over to Siberia as forecast above to some extent. In that kind of scenario I would not rule out a properly cold NE blast in the first place as we turn into February.

    Edited by Catacol_Highlander
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    And todays...25%.

     

    from whom please?

    do you have access to it?

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    from whom please?do you have access to it?

    Here John:- http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79043-model-output-discussion-10th-jan-onwards/page-76#entry2897417Beaten to it. Edited by Mapantz
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