Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[phil nw.]

For those who were reading my earlier update from NCEP this is what I was trying to get across re the same sort of upper pattern but the details on the ground changing, perhaps I didn't explain it clearly but tonights ECM is plausible, its not a big NH change but a few tweeks upstream with that gap opening up between the two lows.

Yes i thought last night that the following week is not a done deal yet Nick.

ECM different again this evening with the eastward progress of the pattern,in fact the trough that stalls over the UK this coming week is still there come the start of next week on this run.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011212/ECH1-192.GIF?12-0

 

it just underlines that uncertainty for week 2.

Edited January 12, 2014 by phil nw.

[nick sussex]

I was just going to get someone to wake you up lol, keeps things interesting and its almost into the reliable timeframes!!. At least its something to keep us interested.

Even the models take a back seat for my dinner! lol We shouldn't get our hopes up too much here given the upstream uncertainties but certainly at least we have something a little more interesting to discuss for tonight. Lets hope its not another one hit wonder!

[Panayiotis]

After 144hrs you get some cold surface conditions, with no wind, low thicknesses and sub zero uppers, under clear skies, temperatures would plummet at night!

And at 240hrs, you get the building blocks for another Scandi high and again cold surface conditions with the majority of UK under -4C uppers:

EDIT: The GEM is not looking that nice tonight, is this a good thing?

Edited January 12, 2014 by Panayiotis

[Purga]

 The ECM can`t wind up any more as the key has snapped off. Super Russian high as well. Different.

It;s having a good try

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

JMA

Here we go again. 

Not sure if model output..... or trolls

The 850s are interesting, note the cold isn't sourced from anywhere, it just develops in situ under that trough. Could be cold enough for wintry showers, probably graupel.

Edited January 12, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[john mac]

Yes i thought last night that the following week is not a done deal yet Nick.

ECM different again this evening with the westward progress of the pattern,in fact the trough that stalls over the UK this coming week is still there come the start of next week on this run.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011212/ECH1-192.GIF?12-0

 

it just underlines that uncertainty for week 2.

Couldn't agree more mate, all still up for grabs and all the doom merchants have been shown today that nothing is a done deal yet!. When we have cross model agreement then we can worry! But until then the interest continues.

[jvenge]

Even the models take a back seat for my dinner! lol We shouldn't get our hopes up too much here given the upstream uncertainties but certainly at least we have something a little more interesting to discuss for tonight. Lets hope its not another one hit wonder!

You have time to post some thoughts on it? It seems a little new compared to what has been toyed with. Implications? Doesn't look very cold, but at the same time will deliver below average?

[TSNWK]

Naughty ECM I was gonna skip the pub rub run this evening, now I feel obliged to take a peep. I guess this type of set-up would be the uncertainly that was referenced by Fergie earlier on today.

[john mac]

You have time to post some thoughts on it? It seems a little new compared to what has been toyed with. Implications? Doesn't look very cold, but at the same time will deliver below average?

Below average in mid january will be cold my friend

[Duane S.]

Well well. Very interesting ECM, With a bit more amplification and et voila and we could be back on.

 

 At +192 it is up from grabs IMO

 

 

[nick sussex]

You have time to post some thoughts on it? It seems a little new compared to what has been toyed with. Implications? Doesn't look very cold, but at the same time will deliver below average?

I'm just finishing a novel on the last failed easterly! but will put that aside to post some maps up a bit later. I should stress though for the sanity of cold lovers in here lets forget about a Scandi high for the moment and see whether this ECM operational run has any legs in terms of what it does with that troughing.

[Jason M]

ECM a bit different, but really just a variation on a theme IMHO. By day 10 a slide into zonality is inevitable on that run.

In practice barring a major miracle we are looking at a week or so of zonality at least whichever model we look at. All the models and all but a couple of GEFS agree. That takes us out towards the back end of January.

As others have commented this isn't really surprising as the PV is so dominant.

[phil nw.]

Of course with all the outputs we have seen since the overnight runs it is unlikely that the Scandinavian high will suddenly develop an urge to visit W.Europe this time around.

I think the interest will be if the ever weakening  Atlantic flow will allow another high to build north around our part of the hemisphere.

ECM T240 gives hints of one but that Canadian vortex is still too influencial on this run.

The unknown factor is how much more amplification we may get to the weaker jet later on as the wave breaking into the vortex continues.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Of course with all the outputs we have seen since the overnight runs it is unlikely that the Scandinavian high will suddenly develop an urge to visit W.Europe this time around.I think the interest will be if the ever weakening  Atlantic flow will allow another high to build north around our part of the hemisphere.ECM T240 gives hints of one but that Canadian vortex is still too influencial on this run.The unknown factor is how much more amplification we may get to the weaker jet later on as the wave breaking into the vortex continues.

Please excuse me for sounding dumb, but are you referring to what's happening with the stratosphere? Thanks GSL

[bluearmy]

The ecm 12z makes complete sense (had it been the 00z). We'll await the ecm ens but it could be that the entire 00z suite was 'dodgy'. (Over progressive)

i only post this because of the jma solution. Had that not evolved as per yesterday evenings nwp musings, ecm would look too isolated to be feasible.

i guess this all backs up ian's post earlier re exeter's thoughts.

And just to emphasise, i am referring to the 8/10 day part of the run re the atlantic and n america. The trough disruption over nw europe and its colder theme is completely reasonable, given the past few days op and ens output.

Edited January 12, 2014 by bluearmy

[nick sussex]

Just a  quick word before my longer ramble later, broadly speaking the ECM and UKMO have the same pattern over the eastern USA at T96hrs, but differ in terms of the depth of the next shortwave upstream from the Great Lakes, the GFS is the odd one out here of the big 3, this is getting very complex upstream, timing, phasing, how deep these shortwaves are and their track.

 

One positive here is that the UKMO backs the ECM at T96hrs but you can then see huge differences at T144hrs, the UKMO is not that bad a lot of energy seems to be running quite far south.

Edited January 12, 2014 by nick sussex

[Ali1977]

I wonder if any of the varied solutions past the weekend that Ian F was talking about looked anything like the latest ECM, be interesting to know!

[Richie V]

Hi nick,Maybe you should become a mildie, zonality will save your hair and your sanity.I appreciate your work on here btw. Keep it up fella.

I'm just finishing a novel on the last failed easterly! but will put that aside to post some maps up a bit later. I should stress though for the sanity of cold lovers in here lets forget about a Scandi high for the moment and see whether this ECM operational run has any legs in terms of what it does with that troughing.

[pdiddy]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

 

Last time the ens were this tight, the prognosis was fairly accurate for a week... at least this is close to average rather than mild. 

[MisfitDog3]

These rapid 'flicks' between fairly different output on some pretty major models always leaves me with a vision of a lookout on a ship unable to see the ice berg until the last minute. We could see an evolution into something dramatic at very close quarters. I don't feel good or bad after any run at the moment as if what we're seeing doesn't fit your tastes then wait 12 hours and something new turns up.....ha.....

[sunnijim]

Quite interesting to see the BBC weeks forecast just now,Matt Taylor suggested that the chart for Friday that had the incoming Low arriving to the NW of Ireland was now unlikely to verify,and would come in much further South.This looks to me very much like tonights ECM run.

Being a live broadcast it makes you wonder if they have taken into account their own models and the latest ECM has thrown a differant light on events from friday onward.Interesting times,considering fergies earlier update too.

Edited January 12, 2014 by sunnijim

[phil nw.]

Please excuse me for sounding dumb, but are you referring to what's happening with the stratosphere? Thanks GSL

Basically latest ECM 10 day forecasts show mean zonal wind speeds on the wane at lower levels of the Stratosphere or a weakening of the mean jet if you like.

Have a look in the Strat.thread -these posts 1013/1014

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/page-51

 

these still to impact on the 500hPa pattern but anything that shows a weaker Stratosphere vortex helps to aid chances of height rises further north.

 

Hope that helps GSL. 

Edited January 12, 2014 by phil nw.

[Duane S.]

The ecm 12z makes complete sense (had it been the 00z). We'll await the ecm ens but it could be that the entire 00z suite was 'dodgy'. (Over progressive)i only post this because of the jma solution. Had that not evolved as per yesterday evenings nwp musings, ecm would look too isolated to be feasible.i guess this all backs up ian's post earlier re exeter's thoughts.And just to emphasise, i am referring to the 8/10 day part of the run re the atlantic and n america. The trough disruption over nw europe and its colder theme is completely reasonable, given the past few days op and ens output.

My sentiments exactly BA. I'm not expecting a bitter easterly to suddenly appear out of nowhere but at D8 on the ECM Op it is plain to see that with a bit of luck thrown in(and we're due it!) how we could be sat under Continental feed and from there, who knows?

[Nick L]

Folks, light-hearted posts with Youtube videos are more suited to the model banter thread. Cheers.

[Duane S.]

So are the ECM and JMA pointing the way forward? Compare the trough disruption at 5 days in the NW Atlantic against that virtually non-existent flatter GFS.

 

#1 ECM 12z

Leading to...

 

#2 JMA 12z

Leading to...

 

#3 GFS 12z

Leading to...

Edited January 12, 2014 by s4lancia