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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    Yes!

     

    Its most noticeable on the ECM 12z,

    Meteociel - Modèle Numérique ECMWF CEP

     

    Looks like groundhog day for Norway from 72-240 hrs!

     

    Indeed. The date I've put is in the middle of a span of about 7 days where it just sits there, very improbably in the context of how inconsistent the models are. I've seen this before, it is like there is some sort of default being output until the signal for for either the Atlantic or the block is strong enough and suddenly we will see very different charts (good or bad). I feel that tipping point is very close

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Indeed. The date I've put is in the middle of a span of about 7 days where it just sits there, very improbably in the context of how inconsistent the models are. I've seen this before, it is like there is some sort of default being output until the signal for for either the Atlantic or the block is strong enough and suddenly we will see very different charts (good or bad). I feel that tipping point is very close

    This is the tipping point in terms of the GFS clutching defeat from the jaws of victory:

     

    post-1206-0-30659100-1389480734_thumb.pn

     

    As soon as the trough shows signs of splitting the high must ridge in between, this run was close but doesn't manage that, if the high ridges over the top as the low approaches it will disrupt energy se'wards, then the synoptics afterwards would be worlds apart.

     

    Hopefully the GEFS ensembles will show some solutions where that happens.

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    Indeed. The date I've put is in the middle of a span of about 7 days where it just sits there, very improbably in the context of how inconsistent the models are. I've seen this before, it is like there is some sort of default being output until the signal for for either the Atlantic or the block is strong enough and suddenly we will see very different charts (good or bad). I feel that tipping point is very close

     

    I t seems to be a regular feature on the Southern tip of Greenland when a surface high is present

    as on the 18z gfs.

     

     

    I'm sure someone was on about it the other day,something to do with

    topographical features etc.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I'm really concerned about more flooding next week as frontal systems continue to spill in off the atlantic, the only plus is it won't be anything like as stormy as recently but more heavy rain at times on already saturated ground will just exacerbate the problems further as there is a risk of fronts stalling during midweek onwards, temps close to average generally.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    The GFS is awful for coldies and for people flooded out of their houses, it continues to bring low after low after low.Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    The 00z is awful if it's cold and snow you want. The Scandinavia HP is becoming more of a Siberian HP, too far away to exert influence on our islands, brief northerly topplers are at least seasonal though.

    Time to step away from the NWP for a few days, take a break!

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    Oh folks im sorry. But it looks like those little steps forward on Saturday have been reversed so far on the ECM at 144 and 168 this morning , energy has not got through to our south and south east as much and the scandi high is furter east.

    Yep at 192 it's poor, those 2 little steps forward on Saturday have been lost by one big stride backwards this morning, the high is somewhere towards eastern Ukraine and we have lower heights to our north west and I would not be surprised if the Azores high ridged over us during the next two frames,

    Edited by TSNWK
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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    yes,unless we see a massive backtrack in the next set of runs it's looking like game-over for any cold weather from the East anytime soon i'm afraidPosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    Quite incredible! Those heights to our NE, have been pushed much further east as early as t144 on the ecmwf, with the ukmo equally as progressive this morning.

    Posted Image

    ecm det t144

    Edited by draztik
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking ahead, there are no weather warnings so it looks like a more typical spell of generally unsettled weather with occasional drier and brighter days, there is a risk of snow on northern hills at times and some night frosts during the quieter interludes.

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Well i posted that heights to our north east were going nowhere anytime soon yesterday.

    The models must have read it as they have........

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011200/ECH1-240.GIF?12-12 what a disgusting chart that is.12z s  please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Good morning

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

    NEXT!!!

    Can the ECM please stop trying to out cannon fodder the GFS

    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Yes, it's not looking great across the board for coldies, the 00z runs appeared to have been fed data that suggests even more energy in the upper flow coming out of NE N America. 

     

    You may have seen John Holmes mention the spacing between the Rossby Waves, which is too wide by t+144 over the N Atlantic sector between the eastern NOAM trough and the European trough:

     

    post-1052-0-57123300-1389512617_thumb.pn

     

    Ideally need to see the gap close between the Euro and eastern N American trough. Unfortunately the American trough flattens out as it enters the N Atlantic on the 00z - so not the amplification that's needed to get an easterly.

     

    Not a great deal of joy from the 00Z GEFS either ...

    Edited by Nick F
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Sadly I think we've come to the end of the road with this current model drama. The models give or take a few minor differences are all singing from the same hymn sheet. The GFS probably the best of a bad bunch but overall the models over estimated the high to the ne, last nights stalemate has turned into an outright win for the Atlantic.

     

    The pattern flattens out too much and I'm afraid by T96hrs the writings on the wall especially with the ECM, indeed here we have seen the models over estimate the high from just T96hrs, perhaps we're looking at a data issue concerning Arctic ocean areas,this has been commented on by NCEP many times.

     

    I would advise people to read the strat thread for whats occured,  the NWP have been catching up with the flushing down of the zonal winds,  BA has made several posts mentioning that over there.

     

    Unfortunately it looks like alot more rain next week which is very bad news for areas that have suffered so much over the last few weeks.

     

    Just look at this mornings UKMO fax charts for T84hrs and then compare it to last nights T96hrs, incredible! I'm afraid this trend is relentless and I don't see any chance of a last minute miracle. I think we need to forget about the high to the ne, its not going to happen and we just have to wait and see what happens after the changes are completely bedded in.

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham

    Any sniffs on an easterly are gone today. A trough taking situ near the uk is most likely giving unwelcome rain, though not as bad as previous weeks.

    Following that, pressure looks likely to rise from the southwest .

    Potentially this winter could end up in the very very mild category!

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    I'm really concerned about more flooding next week as frontal systems continue to spill in off the atlantic, the only plus is it won't be anything like as stormy as recently but more heavy rain at times on already saturated ground will just exacerbate the problems further as there is a risk of fronts stalling during midweek onwards, temps close to average generally.

    looking  as  you say this week is not looking good  for much dry weather if any thing look in to the fantasy world charts the Atlantic wakes up bring more storms with heavy rain  not what the flooded  parts of the uk needs  at the   moment

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Very average January weather on the Gfs 00z op run, atlantic lows separated by brief ridging when we would have a touch of frost. Finally, an easterly which looks about as scary as next doors kitten.

    thats not far from a very good setup ,the high would just need to be a bit further NW then the floodgates would open to some very cod and snowy weather indeed.

     

    Whch kind of ties into a very interesting comment from interitus in the strat thread

     

    quote"The latest MERRA data shows that the 9th recorded the 2nd highest (out of 12793 days) combined 10mb wave 1+2 amplitude of geopotential height at 60°N, a little behind 12/02/89 which was followed by an SSW 9 days later."

     

    so just forget this week and move on,as it looks like this winter will eventually turn very cold into feb,and it's been a very long time that we have had a severe feb.

     
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Yes, no change from my thoughts for the last 48 hours, the ship had sailed on this non-easterly. With a HLB in Scandi  fighting off an Euro Ridge and an Azores ridge, the combined effect is to cut off the Atlantic flow SE and send it over the top of the AH. The Scandi High is sucked into the Euro/Russia/Siberia block and we have a fight off for Week 2-3 between the AH and the Atlantic; N/S divide maybe?

     

    The FI GEFS pressure supports the return to this pattern:  post-14819-0-34073300-1389514401_thumb.g

     

    GEFS members pretty much on the same song sheet at T384 (London): http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=384

     

    Not a wisp of wintriness there (IMBY moreover) seemingly with higher pressure the main driver.

     

    D10 charts for the big three:

     

    GEM: post-14819-0-25645600-1389514469_thumb.p  ECMpost-14819-0-04764200-1389514476_thumb.g  GFSpost-14819-0-07424800-1389514488_thumb.p

     

    I already ignore the ECM op after D7 as it clearly (3-4 times this winter already) over amplifies the possible pattern change. This has only re-emphasized this is the correct call. So looking like we have to wait to see if the PV is displaced to get some real cold, however we should have lost the mild flow, and more seasonal (average) for the rest of Jan?

     

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Yesterday's pendulum swing to the block looks to be quite a swing, judging by the 00z ops. the mid range gefs still contain plenty of decent looking members for cold so will await the ECM and gem ens for more guidance on this. Just as it would be foolish to take too much from the Saturday runs, so it's also the wrong thing to over react to the Sunday morning ops. More after those ens.

    btw, after dissing gfs low res, you couldn't make that run up! Note it contains most of the points raised last evening re where we currently are.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Yesterday's pendulum swing to the block looks to be quite a swing, judging by the 00z ops. the mid range gefs still contain plenty of decent looking members for cold so will await the ECM and gem ens for more guidance on this. Just as it would be foolish to take too much from the Saturday runs, so it's also the wrong thing to over react to the Sunday morning ops. More after those ens.btw, after dissing gfs low res, you couldn't make that run up! Note it contains most of the points raised last evening re where we currently are.

    BA don't you think this ties in with several of your posts  re the zonal winds and the signal for high pressure to be further south, that does seem a very plausible scenario for what we've seen, once those blues towards the pole started to turn red that it was a race against time to get the block in before that fed down.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The ECM T240 mean has the Scandi high disappearing east by D10:  post-14819-0-60998000-1389515677_thumb.g

     

    Very consistent with the ops from the various models with PV reorganised to our NW, AH ridging NE and the UK somewhere in a zonal flow.

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