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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


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ukmo was a strange one this morning with low pressure splitting one part going north the other stuck over central England,

thinking about it now it is rather odd ! and if that is the pattern then it would mean that beyond 96hrs could well be the problem point.

this morning at t120 ukmo

Posted Image

then the ukmo last frame this Posted Image

Posted Image

 

The split low scenario maybe a sign that the block to the NE is likely to prove more resilient than first thought- all models are showing quite a robust block developingclose to 1040mb and such heights are preety difficult to shift - a lot will depend on how cold surface conditions become - the colder the better increasing the density of the air and thus making it harder to shift, but at this stage none of the models can predict confidently how cold conditions may become to our NE.

 

Another interesting observation from UKMO is the sign of increased amplification over mid atlantic with the azores high projected to ridge northwards in response to to increased amplification over NE atlantic seaboard -with weak atlantic forcing on the low pressure there is a strong chance it could split with some energy going underneath the scandi block.

 

Expect lots more swings and roundabouts in future model runs.

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I  just cant stop pondering over the big upgrade earlier this week and then gone with the wind next .but is this possibly how cold snowy spells gradually creep up on you .the computer models latched onto something for a reason .things possibly now taking shape to our east and north east and if cold gets established it would only take little tweeks to bring home what us coldies want .all eyes now on the next main runs later today and tomorrow ,Let the battle commence Hopefully ,cheers all .

agreed, I've been thinking about this as well.......I'm a very amateur follower of the models (most of my posts in here are requests to stay on topic...lol) but over the years on quite a few occasions I've noticed in particular the GFS to trend a pattern, with the Euros and other models following suit only for the pattern to disappear then to reappear at fairly short notice (T96 for example). I wonder if this is about to happen again as to my admittedly untrained eye the outputs have been inching towards colder solutions today. Time will tell, I'll leave the indepth analysis to the experts in here Posted Image

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Talking of the output chopping and changing I was just comparing the ensemble perturbations with this mornings and most of the ones that were decent at 120h this morning seem to be a fair bit worse but most of the ones that were poor seem to be a fair bit better. Posted Image

So not much to go on there I'm afraid other than to say things still in a bit of a state of flux even if cold is generally modelled to be further away than we would like.

 

Just to add to that now that they are out to low res. The majority want to keep a block intact even if the pattern tends to be a little too far East to benefit us but it would take only small changes in the amount and distribution of energy coming off the Atlantic to bring it back into play so we could benefit in and around the 8/9 day timeframe

Edited by Mucka
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Yep "BTW, discard the T850 from 96/144h there is a problem with them."

I'm trying to fix them right now. Sorry about that.

I was hoping it was the other way round with the

500 charts being wrong lol. Thanks.

Edited by cooling climate
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Encouraging signs for cold albeit very small signs at the moment that there may be a change in the weather pattern later next week. Not much time to go in to detail, but I think at least the gfs is an inch or two better towards cold than at this time yesterday!Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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The block to the east not giving way entirely next week by the looks and slowing the progress of the Atlantic systems around the UK.

The pattern just too far east for now to get that much colder air across the North Sea.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011112/UN96-21.GIF?11-18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011112/gfsnh-0-96.png?12

 

The main concern after the weekend is the possible amount of rain again if those fronts stall for too long over us.

It looks like the UK will be under the influence of an Atlantic trough for much of the week as it continues to disrupt into the continent.

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Ok big shift in the GEFS 12z around the 192-216 period. Around 16 members showing some sort of easterly at 216.

GEFS 12z mean 204 - 

Posted Imagegens-21-1-204.png

GEFS 6z mean same timeframe - 

Posted Imagegens-21-1-228.png  big difference.

 

A more positive shift towards a colder pattern again so far this afternoon

Noticed that too - many of the members build a mid atlantic ridge with low pressure systems digging down over the Bristish Isles and further in to Europe resulting in an easterly flow of sorts in many cases - that is 16 members as you point out that show much potential

 

This saga is going to run and run - looking forward to ECM tonight to see if that edges the way of the GEFS suites

 

Edit: After 216 most members go on to flatten the pattern although a few hint at height rises towards Greenland - all a long way off though

 

EWS

Edited by Earth Wind and Snow
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The main concern after the weekend is the possible amount of rain again if those fronts stall for too long over us.

It looks like the UK will be under the influence of an Atlantic trough for much of the week as it continues to disrupt into the continent.

 

Yes, does look rather concerning Phil, from mid-week onwards - the eastward progression of Atlantic fronts begin to grind to a halt over the UK, as the Scandi high begins to build in earnest. Precipitation charts later next week not a pretty sight for those prone to flooding, though GFS does show potential for hill snow across northern Britain as colder air gets drawn from the southeast.

Edited by Nick F
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Noticed that too - many of the members build a mid atlantic ridge with low pressure systems digging down over the Bristish Isles and further in to Europe resulting in an easterly flow of sorts in many cases - that is 16 members as you point out that show much potential

 

This saga is going to run and run - looking forward to ECM tonight to see if that edges the way of the GEFS suites

 

Edit: After 216 most members go on to flatten the pattern although a few hint at height rises towards Greenland - all a long way off though

 

EWS

With the amount of variability we are seeing in the short range I'm not sure looking a a specific models output in 9 days time is really meaningful.  Totally agree that what we need to be seeing is less variability between models and runs before anything has any credibility at this timescale.

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Depending on the amplification of the ridge in the western Atlantic I wonder Is there going

to be a new trend starting where we dismiss the easterly and look to the north/northwest

for colder weather.

Also does pertubation 20 hold some clues to the pattern change end of January on into

February due to strat warming I wonder.

post-10506-0-06669200-1389463080_thumb.p

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