Jump to content

Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


Recommended Posts

Better by the GFS so far compared to the earlier 06hrs run but still not enough forcing on the low, its close but not quite there yet.You can see upstream though the added amplification has stopped those purple low heights extending se as they did in its earlier output.

Edited by nick sussex
  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 2.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Better by the GFS so far compared to the earlier 06hrs run but still not enough forcing on the low, its close but not quite there yet.

Lots of variations and these keep getting shown in the ensembles. Trouble is that even the better ensembles are ending up at the concert hall in the presence of a certain 'fat lady'.My dread was this happening as we're going to be stuck under the trough which is going to mean lots and lots of rain.
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Better by the GFS so far compared to the earlier 06hrs run but still not enough forcing on the low, its close but not quite there yet.You can see upstream though the added amplification has stopped those purple low heights extending se as they did in its earlier output.

 

Yes and with the high still in play and the Azores high displaced further SW we could still get a favourable undercut later but of course given the changes out to 144h we may as well hold fire on anything that comes later.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Just to clear something up, I asked Ian F on Twitter and he said MOGREPS never really went for the easterly at all.

 

Thanks for the reply Ian, saves speculating

 

Thats not quite the case really Karlos because Ian F was on this very thread himself suggesting that 50% of MOGREPS runs backed an easterly outcome at one point. So in reality even the mighty MOGREPS was almost seduced by the Siberian temptress.

Edited by mcweather
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

If only the jet would do its dive south a few hundred miles further west..we could be in business then. Let's hope these changes west continue in future runs!

Have things on the models started to back things further west Tim? I have a short memory and can't remember what the charts looked like 24/48 hrs ago, thanks GSL
Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok, its no point in looking further than 144 hours ( re 12z GFS ) Its clear not all is resolved in the short term models. Its a developing winter scenario, common to this time of the year. The latest run shows the cold block to the Northeast more resilient in holding the Atlantic lows/ fronts. Hints of an undercut. Should expect some upgrade regarding cold potential again from ECM and UKMO this evening. Great model watching as it is now evolving into a Atlantic against blocking battle.

 C

 

Great post, thanks Carinthian.  There's no doubt the block is looking harder to shift over the last few runs, it's still well organised and in situ at 192.

 

Posted Image

Link to post
Share on other sites

Been stuck there for ages though, and T36 is from the 0z.

 

It always does that while it updates for some reason. It will go out to 72/96h soon then another delay before the final charts.

 

 

GFS has no clue from 120h, nothing happens other than a few random shortwaves milling around so take anything after with large dose of the proverbial salt.

 

GEM doesn't continue the improvement unfortunately.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

At 108 and the 0c 850 uppers are a couple of hundred miles further west than the 6z.  From tiny acorns and all that!!!!

 

12z

Posted Image

 

6z

Posted Image

and colder uppers as well,getting closer and closer,lol

Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know whether it is strictly for this thread, so please move to the winter thread if you like, but the latest SST anomaly chart should provide some interest here. It appears to me that the tripole in the mid Atlantic is growing.

Please explain why the tripole in the mid Atlantic is important? Thanks Edited by Grimsby Snow Lover
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

More UKMO data transmission problems? All mixed up on Meteociel.

 

Well it's not really transmission problems. Sometimes the first files are published at 15:50 UTC, then we have to wait for 17:05 UTC for the other data files to arrive. I have never understood the logic Posted Image But theorically all charts should be ok at 17:05 UTC.

 

Edit :

Charts are OK now.

 

BTW, discard the T850 from 96/144h there is a problem with them.

Edited by SylvainTV
  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites

ukmo was a strange one this morning with low pressure splitting one part going north the other stuck over central England,

thinking about it now it is rather odd ! and if that is the pattern then it would mean that beyond 96hrs could well be the problem point.

this morning at t120 ukmo

Posted Image

then the ukmo last frame this Posted Image

Posted Image

Link to post
Share on other sites

ukmo was a strange one this morning with low pressure splitting one part going north the other stuck over central England,

thinking about it now it is rather odd ! and if that is the pattern then it would mean that beyond 96hrs could well be the problem point.

this morning at t120 ukmo

Posted Image

then the ukmo last frame this Posted Image

Posted Image

 

Both UKMO 00z

 

But yes the output is chopping and changing.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Just remember in 1947 a strong southerly airflow very quickly turned into an easterly within a few short days. I doubt the models then predicted that! We need northern Europe as cold as possible first so tbh I couldn't care less that the easterly failed for next week as it would have been a let down at this stage anyway! 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...