Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[Turnedoutniceagain]

I can't see much change TBH - charts look the same as yesterday

[bluearmy]

ecm fairly consistent this morning. the disruption further west on the second attack.  small adjustments will have larger consequences. nothing really changed from yesterday evenings musings.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z op run is like a tired rerun of the atlantic dominated pattern we had through december, the only difference being it's not as stormy but it's unsettled and average. It will take something MAJOR to happen to change the tide of this abysmal winter.

Edited January 15, 2014 by Frosty.

[John Badrick]

The Gfs 00z op run is like a tired rerun of the atlantic dominated pattern we had through december, the only difference being it's not as stormy but it's unsettled and average. It will take something MAJOR to happen to change the tide of this abysmal winter.

Yes aSSW in early Feb perhaps? 6th Feb may herald that Major change as Ed has eluded to over in the strat thread. I think the word for this winter, however annoying it may be PATIENCE

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

The Gfs 00z op run is like a tired rerun of the atlantic dominated pattern we had through december, the only difference being it's not as stormy but it's unsettled and average. It will take something MAJOR to happen to change the tide of this abysmal winter.

Good to see you back Karl )I have to admit I'm getting tired of the same old charts , giving us a glimmer of hope one day , to be taken away the next . With the analysis John h gave last night we have to be realistic , along with the 10% easterly chance Ian f gave also , and with that said we have no argument for cold at the moment I'm afraid , the next 10 days or so it's gonna be average conditions , with westerly/northwesterly winds sweeping through after fronts pass, so basically zonal . The scandi high is only affecting the far north of Europe , with the likes of Poland/Germany staying mild , so until we can see Eastern Europe cool down we can forget looking east , whats the point in having easterly winds with uppers above zero? I understand that anything can happen in feb and march , so still plenty of time left for the winter to turn around , also with the eastern pacific ridge playing a major part in the weather then we will see some big amplification in the jet , which can in turn slow low pressure down allowing a pressure rise somewhere to our west maybe? Along with rumblings in the strat thread regarding a warming , although nothing set in stone regarding how much warming , and whether it can disrupt the vortex enough , but given the time of year it may well be enough of a final blow to finally dismantal it somewhat .But I have to say I'm sick to death of this winter as it is at the minute , it has to be the most vile first half of winter Iv saw since I became a member in hear at least which was 2008. I guess we'v been spoilt somewhat in recent years . Also just a quickie , Iv noticed the Azores high is showing its face again in fi recently , I think this is a red herring , I can't see how that's gonna have a sniff in the pattern going forward, other than ridging into the Atlantic slowing the jet down aiding amplification in response to the pacific ridge , but can't see it sitting flat to our south aiding zonal mush like some of the models are showing, I thinkin in the 10-15 day time frame we may be looking at a northerly , with the jet well south , and the Azores been our friend rather than foe , pushing northwards towards greenlands , that's my shout going forward . Time will tell I guess Edited January 15, 2014 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Frosty.]

Yes aSSW in early Feb perhaps? 6th Feb may herald that Major change as Ed has eluded to over in the strat thread. I think the word for this winter, however annoying it may be PATIENCE

I hope we are not still saying patience is required when we get into february, that would be too much to stomach.

[Man With Beard]

Not completely beyond the point of no return on the easterly but the upper low does seem addicted to Iceland, it's been there 4/5 weeks now, this week's attempt to shift it has failed whilst a second attempt is modelled to go the same way this morning. If it does survive after D5/6, attention will turn to whether heights over Europe survive, which may allow a third attempt to pull the Icelandic upper low south at D10.

In plain English - we won't go cold whilst pressure is low around Iceland and on this morning's models, this doesn't look like changing anytime soon.

[bluearmy]

I still think the idea of Icelandic low = no chance of UK wintryness is misplaced. It all depends on the angle of trough disruption. Look at what is progged to happen days 5/6 with the trough and then have a look back at the general output since we dropped the easterly. ECM has been pretty consistent on this and the American models slow to catch on. Very concerned that the gem ens, topping at 10 hpa may be dodgy over the next week until the stronger zonal slowdown comes to that level. gefs may be too quick on this too.

it's January - the only issue here is the continental temps if we draw an undercutting soueaster ahead of the trough. Will be difficult to bring substantive wintry ness but not out of the question. It's January!

[mountain shadow]

Not completely beyond the point of no return on the easterly but the upper low does seem addicted to Iceland, it's been there 4/5 weeks now, this week's attempt to shift it has failed whilst a second attempt is modelled to go the same way this morning. If it does survive after D5/6, attention will turn to whether heights over Europe survive, which may allow a third attempt to pull the Icelandic upper low south at D10. In plain English - we won't go cold whilst pressure is low around Iceland and on this morning's models, this doesn't look like changing anytime soon.

And why has low pressure dominated around Iceland?Because the PV has been vigorous and at home in NE Canada spitting energy Eastwards relentlessly. This Winter so far has had times of decent amplification of the jet over the Eastern Pacific and the CONUS but little has changed here because of where the PV has located.Until the PV shifts and there are signs in the Stratospheric output that it will towards month end, then we are stuck where we are.

[Weather-history]

I still think the idea of Icelandic low = no chance of UK wintryness is misplaced. It all depends on the angle of trough disruption.

Yes just look at early February 1996 and 12th March 2006. The problem is there is no cold air over France. If cold air was present over France, it would be very interesting.

[nick sussex]

So at least today we're reaching a consensus re the troughing and no clean split of energy, we might not like it but its got good support, however after that still uncertainty as to the angle of the approaching low and NCEP think there might be room for more amplification upstream so this might help a little.

 

In terms of the GFS it has not been used for the shorter term T72hrs timeframe upstream as both its operational and GEFS are deemed as too fast with energy heading into the Great Lakes.

 

The GFS operational run in the medium term also not used this morning, generally NCEP are happier with the ECM output and its ensembles.

[Purga]

The Gfs 00z op run is like a tired rerun of the atlantic dominated pattern we had through december, the only difference being it's not as stormy but it's unsettled and average. It will take something MAJOR to happen to change the tide of this abysmal winter.

Blimey Frosty is sounding negative this morning - no need to look at the models as things must be dire!

 

ENS - Oh yes - zonal average and wet

 

Ciao..

[North-Easterly Blast]

Another January and possibly whole winter season looks like going by without seeing cold polar maritime zonality.  At least south of the Scottish border so far this winter the zonality has been mild, but it is not zonality wholly in itself that wrecks our winter, it is the orientation of the zonal flow.  If a zonal flow orientates more NW-SE then it can bring much colder weather and snowfall, especially to the north instead of a rainfest.

 

 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840114.gif

 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840115.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840116.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840117.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840118.gif

 

 

The above charts are zonal, no northern blocking or Scandinavian blocking, and guess what, there were heavy snowfalls from a line from the south Pennines northwards even to lower levels too.  The key is the orientation of the zonal flow - its NW-SE orientated, and pulls in colder air from the north Atlantic with a source nearer Greenland.  How's that.  It just shows what is possible out of a zonal flow with favourable orientation.  I think that most areas to the north of Scotland will actually often see this sort of "cold zonality" and polar maritime air regularly comes as far south as possibly the Faroe Islands and Shetland / north Scotland, but all zonality often brings to most of the UK is mild dross.

 

Now look a few days later;

 

a ridge of high pressure passes over the UK from the south, giving a drier, frostier interlude:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840119.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840120.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840121.gif

Followed by, some sort of a battleground.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840122.gif

 

Now, it looks as if Atlantic air fully breaks through, and beyond this high pressure is well to the north of the UK, and too far away to influence the UK with cold continental easterlies:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840123.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840124.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840125.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840126.gif

Certainly no cold blocked setup, but lows over the UK containing Atlantic air, and really quite zonal, and guess what, widespread snowfalls in many areas from the Midlands northwards, and even some snowfall further south too.  Plus on top of this many areas remained snow covered for five or six days even at low levels.  The key to it was that the zonal flow was purely polar maritime.  The above just goes to show what is possible for the UK's weather if a zonal flow is favourably orientated, even without any significant high latitude northern blocking or Scandinavian blocking.

 

A truly epic spell of cold zonality the above was, even though that particular winter wasn't particularly cold overall, it remains one of my favourite weather events ever in the UK, as the famous event when zonality (which is usually a mild setup for most of the UK), delivered widespread snowfall that lay on the ground even at lower levels for a week.

 

 

It just seems that today the UK is just around 1000 miles too far south to see cold polar maritime zonality, and any colder polar maritime flows are soon replaced by a warmer tropical maritime flow for most of the UK south of Scotland at least.  If the UK had have been placed 1000 miles further north, then we would get cold zonality almost every winter, but why does it so rarely happen in the exact location the UK is currently in?  The only good example of cold polar maritime zonality in the UK that I know of in recent years was just after mid-month in January 2009.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090119.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090120.gif

 

A good number of areas from the southern Pennines northwards did see some snowfall out of the above setup, although little of it fell to lower levels.

 

Other than the above, I can not think of any other winter examples of cold zonality, in the last ten years at least, to affect the UK.  Why is a zonal flow almost always mild in the UK?  To me mild zonality is the worst weather type that the UK ever experiences.  The above charts would have anyone tearing their hair out when mild zonality develops as to why a zonal flow cannot deliver and be more of a polart maritime origin.  I would absolutely love to see the likes of proper cold zonality in the UK again. 

 

It is now looking that this winter will be a poor one - and we could well be looking at the mildest winter since 2007-08 now.  2011-12 wasn't any great shakes but at least had a decent cold fortnight in early February.  Last winter gets talked about a great deal, but it was March that made last winter special, as the winter of 2012-13, (Dec to Feb) wasn't especially cold overall, just slightly below the long term mean.  The main wintry spell of winter 2012-13 was for two weeks over the middle part of January.  Feb 2013 was a case of a predominatly below average month but without any notable cold spells.

 

Well we have had a few good wintry spells in the last five years, and the law of averages suggested that this winter wouldn't be anything as cold as 2009-10 was, or see a spell like Dec 2010 happen this winter, but most winters usually bring a decent cold spell at some point.  This winter so far, at least the first half, has brought nothing remotely cold for most parts of the UK at least.  The relatively mild winters in the mid 2000s still did bring some colder weather at times.  It is now looking more and more likely that this winter will turn into a disaster now, much like 1988-89, 89-90, 97-98 did.

Edited January 15, 2014 by North-Easterly Blast

[Summer Sun]

GFS 00z follows on from yesterdays 12z run with the 8 day temperature anomaly showing all areas except parts Scotland, northern Ireland and perhaps the far north of England in seeing slightly above normal temps

 

[Gibby]

Good morning. Here is the report on this morning's output of the NWP for today Wednesday January 15th 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models show Low pressure over the Atlantic gradually drifting in closer to the UK over the next day or two. As a result today's mild and damp conditions will change to somewhat cooler and more showery conditions from the West from later today. The showers will be heavy in places and focused most on the South and west of the UK with some Northern and Eastern areas seeing a fair amount of dry weather. By Saturday Low pressure remains close to the West of the UK with a new frontal feature moving NNE across the UK with further heavy rain likely over England and parts of Wales with Sunday too seeing further unsettled weather for all in light winds and temperatures near to or just a little below average as Low pressure fills and slides SE.

 

GFS then shows new Low pressure areas crossing East to the North of the UK through next week, each dragging troughs East across Britain continuing to bring rain and showers at times in basically Westerly winds with temperatures quite close to the seasonal average.

 

The GFS Ensembles show little evidence of any significant change in the unsettled pattern this morning under temperatures largely close to average. There may be some cooler and blustery intervals in showery NW winds but no substantial cold events look likely.

 

UKMO shows a weak ridge across the UK with the UK itself in a 'col' type situation where almost anything goes but the most likely event will see a rather cold and dry interlude with a night frost but a dry bright day perhaps with a shower, wintry on hills.

 

GEM shows the unsettled weather giving way from the North to a colder Easterly flow next week with some wintry showers in the East and South with frost developing at night especially in the clearer North.

 

NAVGEM shows Low pressure up to the NW of the UK by midweek with a broad Westerly flow. The unsettled weather of early in the week will be superseded by the effects of fresher Atlantic winds and further rain bearing troughs crossing East over all areas as Low pressure maintains the upper hand as far as the UK is concerned.

 

ECM this morning keeps very unsettled weather going with deep Low pressure areas continuing to affect all areas of the UK throughout the week with spells of rain, heavy at times accompanied by strong Westerly winds at times too. On the plus side temperatures do not look like being far from the January average.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts today show a bias favouring a trough down the North Sea connected to Low pressure most likely towards the NW of the UK. This as of the last few outputs closes the door on any cold from the East and most likely maintains the unsettled theme across the UK with rain at times in average temperatures and Westerly winds.

 

The Jet Stream continues to blow across the Atlantic, turning Southeast to the South of the UK and then over Southern Europe. This pattern is maintained into the start of next week. Later next week the flow looks like strengthening again and piling East across the Atlantic and across the UK.

 

In Summary the weather remains very unsettled over the next two weeks with Low pressure never straying far from the UK shores throughout the period. The thrust of energy from these Lows is SE'wards for the next 5-6 days before the thrust then looks more East to the North of Scotland next week with an increase of Westerly winds likely at times, giving rise to somewhat more mobility allowing systems to pass through more quickly with time though still with only short drier spells in between. There is nothing again to suggest any change to colder conditions of note anytime soon from this morning's output with the glimmer of hope from the GEM operational looking the only straw to clutch this morning.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Thats one powerful jet streak at 114h on gfs06z.

Cant quite see any route to cold with a strong PV and a jet like that.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well looking at gfs 06z at 114h (20th of Jan) we see a rampant zonal pattern with another big jet streak roaring across the Atlantic.

Its no suprise to see the GEFS/ECM ensembles looking as poor as they do.

[Paul]

Just moved a whole bunch of posts into the model chat thread as they're a better fit for that one. Please can we try to keep this thread model focused with discussion on the current output, for more loosely model related stuff or reactions to the models the chat and banter thread is the place to post

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78680-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-winter-201314/

[Ali1977]

The high north of Alaska is huge, maybe this will split the vortex

[Ali1977]

Here we go, Alaska high now forming over Greenland

Nearly, PV just relentless

Edited January 15, 2014 by Ali1977

[nick sussex]

Yet another variation on the same theme by the GFS 06hrs run, we see a different trough here but then the GFS pushes the Azores high ne, after that it goes walkabout and against the upper air pattern basically nonsense because there is no signal for the Azores high to move east, it should remain displaced further to the west.

 

Until the actual trough position is agreed on and how it phases with the energy off the PV chunk to the nw then we're going to have just wait and see what that means in terms of how the pattern could evolve from there.

 

You only have to look at the ensembles at just T96hrs across both the ECM and GEFS to know that this troughing has not been nailed yet.

[karlos1983]

I really hope this comes to fruition and with each run get's closer and stronger

 

[Ali1977]

The strat warming is always good, but only really at 384 every time.....

[karlos1983]

The strat warming is always good, but only really at 384 every time.....

 

Not the case, it has been getting closer, well the beginnings of it anyway. now down to 240

[ukpaul]

We're really just biding time at the moment before seeing how the warming events affect matters. FI is particularly useless at this time as things can fllip markedly as a result, It will be pure luck if t300+ looks anything like that by this time next week when it gets to t144.

 

The strat thread is fascinating by the way.