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Somerset Squall

Intense Tropical Cyclone Colin

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Moderate Tropical Storm Colin has formed in the central South Indian Ocean, at around 12S, 86E. Winds are at 35kts. The storm is currently under shear, but has managed to organise despite this. Over the coming days, shear should ease, and both MeteoFrance and JTWC indicate strengthening in their forecasts. Colin is forecast to head west-southwestwards along the north side of a ridge to the south. A trough is expected to break down this ridge over the coming days allowing a gradual poleward turn in Colin's track. In the 48-72hr time frame, JTWC forecast rapid strengthening as the trough opens up a poleward outflow channel, before weakening then occurs in around 96hrs time as Colin slips away over cooler waters and into increasing shear associated with the mid-lattitude westerlies. Colin is not a threat to land.

 

Posted Image

 

 

Edited by Somerset Squall

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Tropical Storm EIGHT: Probability of tropical storm winds to 120 hours leadPosted Image

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After looking dishevelled for much of the day yesterday due to shear, Colin has become much better organised as shear has dropped off overnight, and outflow has become near radial. Colin is clearly undergoing rapid intensification, as it has developed a solid central dense overcast is already sporting a pinhole eye. JTWC estimate winds of 65kts, but I'd say Colin is already stronger than this, and getting stronger by the hour. When I show you the latest satellite image, you can see why I think this, what a beauty!

 

post-1820-0-91754000-1389441367_thumb.jp

 

 

Colin should intensify further over the next 36hrs, and it seems we are going to get some pretty high wind speeds out of this system. Just as well it is not on course to impact land!

 

 

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After looking dishevelled for much of the day yesterday due to shear, Colin has become much better organised as shear has dropped off overnight, and outflow has become near radial. Colin is clearly undergoing rapid intensification, as it has developed a solid central dense overcast is already sporting a pinhole eye. JTWC estimate winds of 65kts, but I'd say Colin is already stronger than this, and getting stronger by the hour. When I show you the latest satellite image, you can see why I think this, what a beauty!

 

 

Colin is definitely looking very impressive right now! A real beauty it has become indeed! And without it affecting land, this is the best situation we hurricane fanatics can get! Posted Image From the satellite imagery (CIMSS), It seems to be a category 4 hurricane (no full symmetry in Dvorak imagery, though it remains a very impressive cyclone).

 

The best image showing this structure was from the whole Indian ocean (NHC imagery seems to be very ragged):

Posted Image

 

What does make me wonder, though, is the big number of major hurricanes we have had so far in the Southern Hemisphere (2013-2014 season). So far, 5 out of 7 named systems in these basins have become major hurricanes (Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale). Of the non-major systems, Christine also got very close to major hurricane status before making landfall. This all is in great contrast to the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.

 

Moreover, the forecasts of JTWC and La Reunion appeared to have been too conservative on much of the tropical cyclones, showing the general difficulty to forecast those rapid intensification events. 

 

It will be interesting to see the major intensity upgrade from JTWC and La Reunion in a few hours, with a possible >50 kt increase in 12 hours (!)

 

Sources:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=indian&sname=08S&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013%E2%80%9314_Australian_region_cyclone_season

Edited by Vorticity0123
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Indeed Vorticity, the South Indian Ocean does seem to be churning out some very impressive cyclones at the moment, including category 5 Bruce!

 

Colin has literally bombed intensity wise. Winds are up to 115kts, cat 4 on the SS scale. JTWC forecast a peak of 130kts, which is reasonable given the dual outflow channels and low shear. However, it would not be out of the question for Colin to become a category 5 on the SS scale, the environment certainly supports it! We shall see.

 

Just been classified as an "Intense Tropical Cyclone" by MeteoFrance, another one!!

Edited by Somerset Squall

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Is it just me, or does the name 'Colin' seem just a tad unexciting for something so dramatic?Posted Image

 

Sorry Colins!

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Posted Image

 

Summary
 
The map shows the accumulated precipitation along the cyclone's track. Yellow area is > 100mm; Red area is > 300mm; Blue area is > 500mm. The accumulated rainfall is calculated based on the Tropical Rainfall Potential of NOAA/NESDIS. The eTRaP is a simple ensemble whose members are the 6-hourly totals from the single-orbit TRaPs, which are rainfall estimates from passive microwave remote sensing. Rain map with eTraP data. (Source: JRC) Storm surge maximum height. 
 
Tropical Cyclone COLIN-14 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the Maximum sustained wind speed and the affected population and their vulnerability.
 
Updated: this report is based on advisory number 8.
 
Tropical Cyclone Hurricane/Typhoon > 74 mph (maximum wind speed of 212 km/h)
from 10/01/2014 06:00 UTC to 13/01/2014 06:00 UTC
Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0
Extreme Rain
Potential rainfall is calculated based on rainfall observed by several microwave satellite sensors.
 
Storm surge
 
No content available

 

 

http://www.gdacs.org/report.aspx?eventtype=TC&eventid=42379

Edited by Coast

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Colin peaked at 115kts. The cyclone has now weakened to 80kts as it's journey out of the tropics has increased shear over Colin, and cooled sea temps beneath. Extratropical transition should begin soon.

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NASA adds up Tropical Cyclone Colin's rainfall rates

 

Tropical Cyclone Colin continued moving through the Southern Indian Ocean on January 13 while NASA's TRMM satellite passed overhead and calculated the rates in which rain was falling throughout the storm.

 
The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission or TRMM satellite is managed by NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency. TRMMM captured an image of rainfall rates occurring in Colin on Jan. 13 at 0753 UTC/2:53 a.m. EST. TRMM Precipitation Radar showed that the bulk of Colin's rainfall was west and south of the center and there were some isolated areas where rain was falling at a rate of up to 2 inches/50 mm per hour. Tropical Cyclone Colin is the eighth tropical cyclone in the Southern Indian Ocean cyclone season this year. It also has a separate designation from La Reunion Island, where it is known as "06/2013/2014."
 
At 0900 UTC/4 a.m. EST on Jan. 13, Colin's maximum sustained winds were near 80 knots/148.2 kph/92.0 mph. Colin was located about 938 nautical miles/1,079 miles/1,737 km south of Diego Garcia, near 23.1 south and 75.0 east. Colin is moving to the south-southeast at 14 knots/16.1 mph/25.9 kph and over cooler sea surface temperatures that will cause it to weaken. In addition to cooler sea surface temperatures, vertical wind shear is increasing as Colin tracks further south-southeast. Colin is expected to become extra-tropical in the next couple of days.
 
Posted Image

 

 

http://www.sciencecodex.com/nasa_adds_up_tropical_cyclone_colins_rainfall_rates-126055

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Colin is hanging on in there, but the cold waters and high shear of 29 degrees south lattitude are taking their toll. Winds have decreased to 40kts. Colin is maintaining, at least for now, a small area of shallow convection near the LLCC, but this should not continue for long.

Edited by Somerset Squall

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Posted Image

 

Tropical Cyclone Colin is not as tightly wrapped as it was a day ago. Satellite imagery from NASA's Aqua and TRMM satellites show Colin is not as organized as it was, and most of the strongest precipitation was occurring on the southern side of the storm and waning. On January 14, 2014 at 0900 UTC, Colin had maximum sustained winds near 40 knots/46.0 mph/74.0 kph. It was far from land, and centered 1,171 nautical miles/1,348 miles/2,169 km from Diego Garcia near 26.7 south and 73.3 east. Colin was moving to the south at 9 knots/10.3 mph/16.67 kph.
 
NASA's Aqua satellite passed over Colin at 0840 UTC/3:40 a.m. EST on January 14 and obtained a visible look at the clouds and structure of the storm. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer known and MODIS captured the image that showed thinning clouds in all quadrants except the southern quadrant where TRMM confirmed the heaviest rainfall was occurring almost five hours later when it passed overhead.
 
NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency's TRMM satellite or Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, flew over Colin on January 14 at 1327 UTC/8:27 a.m. EST and measured rainfall in the storm. TRMM found that light rain surrounded the tropical cyclone with the exception of moderate to heavy rain in the southern quadrant. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, animated multispectral satellite imagery showed that the low-level center of circulation was exposed and after the TRMM overpass, convection has waned more, leaving almost no strong convection in the tropical cyclone. Satellite data showed that the overall low-level structure was becoming less tightly wrapped.
 
Posted Image

 

 

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