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Wales (Cymru) Winter Regional Discussion 07/01/14


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Last January we had heavy snow which settled after an equally wet December.

Conversely though the previous winter we had a few snow days where lying snow thawed quickly due to the wet ground.

 

Of course it depends on the saturation level of the ground which will vary, the lack of frost will also be a factor hindering any snow falling sticking.

However, more of an issue with regard to lying snow is that current models have gone away from the idea of snow getting here in the first place.

You seen it many times both waysJ1 gfs fails to cope with an easterly flow as if it cannot cope with a pattern change don"t be surprised to see a swing back to an Easterly Before the weekend ,expect massive changes before the 18th of Jan.

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Think I know who's nicked our cold - AMERICA - Niagra Falls totally frozen

 

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GFS 18z say NOOOOOOOOOOO to early next week's cold but by the 17th - we may get to see something of the white variety

 

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Edited by andymusic
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Ahhhh more rain it is then.......wonderful (heavy sarcasm mode)

 

When can we write January off and bin it along with the utterly foul and autumnal December?

 

The way its going....the words winter is over will soon be spoken....but then we havent had a winter worthy of the name...just constant autumnal filth.

Edited by Carl46Wrexham
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I think we been lucky if you like cold and snow over the last few years and this year we back to the norm wet and windy. we may see a bit of the white stuff but that is expected every winter but as things stand there is no sign of anything other than lvly rain. that's a joke mind we had our fair share. lets just get sunny hot weather back here.

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Im going to start referring to the Models thread as the Tantrums and Tiaras (T&T) thread.

 

In my novice opinion its still all to play for. If it wasn't for stellar charts on Wednesday then there wouldn't be such doom and gloom right now.

 

From what i can gather we are moving away from this barrage of Atlantic Lows to something more seasonal. Even if its next to normal Jan temps i'll be happy.

 

A glance at charts i can see some height rises to Scadinavia which is good. Things are moving in the right direction, but because it seems that we won't be getting the cold rapidy estabilsing and an possible easterly as was showing on Wed everyone in the T&T thread is slitting their wrists.

 

In my opinon anything t+96 is subject to quite a change such is the volatilty of the models.

 

Keep the faith

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Im going to start referring to the Models thread as the Tantrums and Tiaras (T&T) thread.

 

In my novice opinion its still all to play for. If it wasn't for stellar charts on Wednesday then there wouldn't be such doom and gloom right now.

 

From what i can gather we are moving away from this barrage of Atlantic Lows to something more seasonal. Even if its next to normal Jan temps i'll be happy.

 

A glance at charts i can see some height rises to Scadinavia which is good. Things are moving in the right direction, but because it seems that we won't be getting the cold rapidy estabilsing and an possible easterly as was showing on Wed everyone in the T&T thread is slitting their wrists.

 

In my opinon anything t+96 is subject to quite a change such is the volatilty of the models.

 

Keep the faith

I think I can agree with that - short term though it's that band from the 90s again - WET WET WET

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Ducking Derek said no cold or snow for rest off January

Not quite true Derek

 

 

Yellow Warning of Ice for Wales : Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Pembrokeshire, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Torfaen, Vale of Glamorgan & Wrexham valid from 2200 Fri 10 Jan to 1000 Sat 11 Jan
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Only had a few mm of fairly light rain here and already puddles in the borders and lawn, ground is fully saturated, will take weeks of dry weather to dry out, no sign of that at the moment though.

 

I believe Derek said no real sign of cold/snow into late January not that there will be no cold/snow, I'd agree looking at the current situation! Still a chance a surprise could come this month and who knows what February will bring.

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Only had a few mm of fairly light rain here and already puddles in the borders and lawn, ground is fully saturated, will take weeks of dry weather to dry out, no sign of that at the moment though.

 

I believe Derek said no real sign of cold/snow into late January not that there will be no cold/snow, I'd agree looking at the current situation! Still a chance a surprise could come this month and who knows what February will bring.

 

That's completely different to what was said above and to be honest far more measured and matches what the models say at the moment.

 

Given Derek it also seems much more the type of thing he would say as well.

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Ducking Derek said no cold or snow for rest off January

He could well be wrong the latest ECM has got HP over NE Europe putting up resistance to LP moving into the west of the UK wed/Thursday ,any further westwards movement of the HP ,would be great blocking the LP to trying to cross the UK..It would be great if this happened to give us a break from this constant downpours!Posted Image

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Posted · Hidden by TonyH, January 11, 2014 - Incorrect assertion!
Hidden by TonyH, January 11, 2014 - Incorrect assertion!

And there was me hoping of a first, a hattrick of plus 200mm months.

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gfs 12z seems a better run for cold and snowy ops - maybe a turn around again yet! lol

 

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lovely red sky out this afternoon and winter moon!

Edited by andymusic
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gfs 12z seems a better run for cold and snowy ops - maybe a turn around again yet! lol

 

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lovely red sky out this afternoon and winter moon!

Can"t see anything wrong with this chart either, unless its gone by 10 tonight lolPosted Image

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Posted · Hidden by Bobby, January 11, 2014 - No reason given
Hidden by Bobby, January 11, 2014 - No reason given

gfs 12z seems a better run for cold and snowy ops - maybe a turn around again yet! lol

 

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The colder air shown there is coming from the NW not from the east and it won't be snow anyway apart from on top of the Beacons/Snowdon maybe. Rain for 99.99%, no sign of proper cold or snow in sight on any model at the moment.

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Instead of the Atlantic in control and wet with lows moving through quickly we have the Atlantic in control and wet with lows slow moving, that seems to be the basic change in practical terms for us, also not as windy and maybe a bit cooler. Cannae see any snow cap'n.

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