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Wales (Cymru) Winter Regional Discussion 07/01/14


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No sign of things drying out, another 100mm+ forecast on 12z GFS for parts of Wales over the next week, more over the hills. Wettest February, wettest winter ever looking very possible. Can't remember a winter ever like this one, one for the record books. More nasty storms and gales possible next week as well

 

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No sign of things drying out, another 100mm+ forecast on 12z GFS for parts of Wales over the next week, more over the hills. Wettest February, wettest winter ever looking very possible. Can't remember a winter ever like this one, one for the record books. More nasty storms and gales possible next week as well

 

 

Just on this subject, accumulated precipitation. Go back a week and it looked like being 100mm+ for my area. It's been anything but. In fact, even today, we've had very very little indeed. River level has barely moved.

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The winds have finally picked up in Cardiff. It's been quiet all day with some 44mph gusts occasionallly,. Gusts only up to 55mph (recorded at cardiff bay weather station) but it's sounding a lot more vicious. Average wind speeds per 10 mins are only 33mph. http://www.cbwac.com/harbour/harbour/barrage/Current_Vantage_Pro_Plus.htm

Edited by Clair_Witch
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Just come back from Swansea Marina! Wow really gusty especially going past the tower! Could feel the wind push the car ! Its like a wind tunnel. Is it due to get worse tonight?

I think the winds have peaked although it had been very windy all day, and it will continue to be very windy.

Gusts of 80mph at Mumbles, with sustained wind speeds of 60mph for at time this afternoon.

Just on this subject, accumulated precipitation. Go back a week and it looked like being 100mm+ for my area. It's been anything but. In fact, even today, we've had very very little indeed. River level has barely moved.

45mm of rain this month, certainly wet especially on Thursday and Friday but not as bad as forecast.

Still looks goods for snow across Wales Tuesday heavy wintry showers snow across Wales I snow risks maps are not that good but the trend is therePosted ImagePosted Image

I'll try the ignore it option after what happened last week. Posted Image

Edited by J10
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Just on this subject, accumulated precipitation. Go back a week and it looked like being 100mm+ for my area. It's been anything but. In fact, even today, we've had very very little indeed. River level has barely moved.

Meanwhile here it proved very accurate unbelievably with 110mm in the past 7 days. There will always be great local variation with precipitation and strong orographic/ sheltering effects.

Edited by TonyH
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I think the winds have peaked although it had been very windy all day, and it will continue to be very windy.

Gusts of 80mph at Mumbles, with sustained wind speeds of 60mph for at time this afternoon.

45mm of rain this month, certainly wet especially on Thursday and Friday but not as bad as forecast.

I'll try the ignore it option after what happened last week. Posted Image

Mumbles seems to have been a lot drier than the north of Swansea where amounts probably nearer to 100mm.

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Just on this subject, accumulated precipitation. Go back a week and it looked like being 100mm+ for my area. It's been anything but. In fact, even today, we've had very very little indeed. River level has barely moved.

 

They are fairly low resolution maps so exposed high ground will likely get more than that and lower sheltered areas possibly a lot less. The higher res models like NMM and EURO4 give a more realistic and accurate prediction for a particular location.

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They are fairly low resolution maps so exposed high ground will likely get more than that and lower sheltered areas possibly a lot less. The higher res models like NMM and EURO4 give a more realistic and accurate prediction for a particular location.

Absolutely. Yet they keep being posted as being signs of the apocalypse in the model thread. They are merely indicative of the potential.

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Mumbles seems to have been a lot drier than the north of Swansea where amounts probably nearer to 100mm.

 

The rainfall for Cwm Level has been 67mm so far this month, of course Northern parts of Swansea do get more rain than Mumbles as is borne out by average rainfall being 20-25% higher, but not to the extent you have elaborated.

 

On many occasions on this thread in recent months I have said say 5mm of rain for Mumbles but more here.

 

So my original point still holds these low resolution maps do overstate rainfall, except the hilly areas well inland.

 

They are fairly low resolution maps so exposed high ground will likely get more than that and lower sheltered areas possibly a lot less. The higher res models like NMM and EURO4 give a more realistic and accurate prediction for a particular location.

 

I mentioned this point months ago, so why do people keep on posting these charts, as they overstate rainfall for the majority. I think EURO4 is a bit better for rainfall predictions, but NMM also tends to overstate rainfall amounts.

 

In many ways these charts are similar to the snowfall charts, useful as a rough guide, but in terms of accuracy way off.

Edited by J10
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Meanwhile here it proved very accurate unbelievably with 110mm in the past 7 days. There will always be great local variation with precipitation and strong orographic/ sheltering effects.

 

One significant so far this winter was the difference between December and January. There was far more orographically enhanced rainfall in December, with a lot of steady rainfall in coastal areas, enhanced as it went inland.

While in January there was more showery rainfall, so that that January was much wetter in Coastal areas than December was, with over double the rainfall.

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I mentioned this point months ago, so why do people keep on posting these charts, as they overstate rainfall for the majority. I think EURO4 is a bit better for rainfall predictions, but NMM also tends to overstate rainfall amounts.

 

In many ways these charts are similar to the snowfall charts, useful as a rough guide, but in terms of accuracy way off.

It's more about precision than accuracy surely. They are low-res so imprecise, giving the average rainfall expected in a fairly large square with inevitable variations within that square especially with the varied geography in a small area like here in Wales. They aren't terribly useful for forecasting the rainfall in your back garden but they aren't meant for that, they are what they are. For that job there are the high-res models, whether precision predictions are accurate though of course is another matter.

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Yellow Alert of Rain for Wales : Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Carmarthenshire, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Pembrokeshire, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Torfaen & Vale of Glamorgan valid from 0015 Tue 11 Feb to 2345 Tue 11 Feb
 
 
with some back edge snow on the front too! and wintry snowy showers to follow!
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showers getting a little wintry here again

 

 

Yellow Warning of Ice for Wales : Monmouthshire, Newport, Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Merthyr Tydfil, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Torfaen, Neath Port Talbot, Powys, Swansea, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Denbighshire, Gwynedd, Wrexham, Conwy & Flintshire valid from 2200 Sun 09 Feb to 1000 Mon 10 Feb
 
lots of wet snow in this one - winter is fighting back!
Edited by andymusic
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We had wet snow here about 30mins ago exciting and disappointing knowing that it had no chance of sticking Posted Image. Brilliant sun now

 

Yep it feels a bit pointless if it doesn't stick, I do long for some proper dry settling snow like last January, seems a world away now. There looks to be a decent covering on the Brecon Beacons though if you're really snow starved, looks solid white out of my window. Was a good covering there on Friday too.

Edited by Bobby
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Yep it's feels a bit pointless if it doesn't stick, I do long for some proper dry settling snow like last January, seems a world away now. There looks to be a decent covering on the Brecon Beacons though if you're really snow starved, looks solid white out of my window. Was a good covering there on Friday too.

 

Alternatively watch the winter Olympics.

 

More rain here this morning. Oh for a good old fashioned Northerly toppler,

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well well - winter olympics - snow/sleet/wind/hail and now thunder and lightning!

 

and everything is white - we have a slight base!

 

according to 12z gfs this is gonna be a very wintry week in Wales!

 

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temp must be coming down some more now - lovely bit of fluffy flake snow in that last shower

Edited by andymusic
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