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Wales (Cymru) Winter Regional Discussion 07/01/14


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Now squall lines like that is what I call interesting weather....wind and rain pah! Seen way more than enough of that rubbish thanks.

 

Certainly not boring.

 

the squall passed through here, Heavy rain with big drops, which looked a bit sleety, and massive gusts.

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squall line passed through here - still hefty gusting winds - reports of 75mph gusts on Wales west coast - nasty weather! - looks like the midlands are getting the worst of this mind you - Birmingham is getting a right pasting!

Edited by andymusic
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wintry show starts tomoz now

 

Posted Image

 

and into Monday morning there could be quite a surprise for snow lovers

 

later next week - gfs 12z has made a mighty westward correction in line with ukmo of the colder easterly uppers

 

Posted Image

 

it may well adjust even further in our direction

 

this will help further to cool things down and produce a more snowy outlook for us when the atlantic trys to fight back and the atlantic is bringing it's own cold air too!

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Going back to snow potential for early Monday.

 

Posted ImageGFS 24 Jan 2.JPG Posted ImageGFS 24 Jan.JPG

 

In short very similar, chance of wintry/snow showers for many overnight, with Dewpoints around or below freezing for most, snow chances becoming a bit more restricted to higher ground later.

 

Thereafter a lot of opportunities for wintriness, however the disagreements between the models tonight makes any detail difficult to pinpoint, but IMO there is a very real chance of winter proper arriving next week.

 

 

post-213-0-58015300-1390686921_thumb.jpg post-213-0-52877000-1390686928_thumb.jpg

 

Last update on GFS on this, chance of some wintriness/snow still, but not quite as good as 12HZ run.

Edited by J10
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We had a miserable wet winter so far ,In Swansea i had 1 snow shower back in November and in the model thread we got about 80 per cent who shout THE bloody Atlantic train Atlantic train is BACKPosted Image milld with another Atlantic train back Posted Imageby the weekend,II SAY LETS ENJOY THE NEXT 3 DAYS! my rant over!. The forecast for Wales Wintry showers snow at times across Wales for the next 3 days.So next week  hopefully we can get some snow cover even over lower ground in S Wales.

Edited by keithlucky
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Right now Keith without even casting an eye in the mod thread - ukmo is still "trying" to hold up the train - GFS & ECM let the atlantic through like a 125 - it's not looking brill right now - but with the thought that the ECM hasn't been performing well lately and the GFS always likes to rush the atlantic through - we gotta hope the ukmo is good for holding onto the cold for now!

 

GEM is a peach holding up the atlantic too

 

And tonight is when some of us may see something wintry!

 

Meto and BBC forecasts all going for wintry potential - short and medium term

 

Today:

A cold start. Heavy rain and strong to gale winds will quickly spread to all parts. Rain may fall as snow on hills for a time with blizzard conditions. Rain clearing to scattered, blustery wintry showers this afternoon. Maximum Temperature 6 °C.

 

 

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Unsettled on Tuesday with blustery showers, some heavy and turning wintry at times, especially over hills. Colder on Wednesday and Thursday with wintry showers, bright spells and bitter east winds.

Edited by andymusic
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We had a miserable wet winter so far ,In Swansea i had 1 snow shower back in November and in the model thread we got about 80 per cent who shout THE bloody Atlantic train Atlantic train is BACKPosted Image milld with another Atlantic train back Posted Imageby the weekend,II SAY LETS ENJOY THE NEXT 3 DAYS! my rant over!. The forecast for Wales Wintry showers snow at times across Wales for the next 3 days.So next week  hopefully we can get some snow cover even over lower ground in S Wales.

 

We had some snow on Christmas Eve as well, in the mostly hail showers. The remarkable thing is that is more than many have got so far this winter.

 

As for the Scandi Block it hasn't gone anywhere in a few weeks, I cannot see any Atlantic win being clear cut, and a cold zonal theme is equally as likely even if it does.

 

One straw to clutch, the GFS control run is vastly different with a slider low next Friday and a SE flow behind.

Edited by J10
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Right now Keith without even casting an eye in the mod thread - ukmo is still "trying" to hold up the train - GFS & ECM let the atlantic through like a 125 - it's not looking brill right now - but with the thought that the ECM hasn't been performing well lately and the GFS always likes to rush the atlantic through - we gotta hope the ukmo is good for holding onto the cold for now!

 

GEM is a peach holding up the atlantic too

 

And tonight is when some of us may see something wintry!

 

Meto and BBC forecasts all going for wintry potential - short and medium term

 

Today:

A cold start. Heavy rain and strong to gale winds will quickly spread to all parts. Rain may fall as snow on hills for a time with blizzard conditions. Rain clearing to scattered, blustery wintry showers this afternoon. Maximum Temperature 6 °C.

 

 

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Unsettled on Tuesday with blustery showers, some heavy and turning wintry at times, especially over hills. Colder on Wednesday and Thursday with wintry showers, bright spells and bitter east winds.

 

Looking at EURO4 model for tonight, thicknesses sub 528 for quite a while, Dewpoints around zero or below for most of the night, with 850hPOA temps -5 to -7c from 6pm tonight to 9am tomorrow morning. Thicknesses sub 528 for the same period, and sub 522dam for around 6pm-midnight.

 

The rain/snow indicator is a bit more stingy on EURO4, than NAE, swo we shall have to wait and see.

 

Any lying snow is set to be very limited though with these marginal and rather wet underfoot conditions generally.

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Looking at EURO4 model for tonight, thicknesses sub 528 for quite a while, Dewpoints around zero or below for most of the night, with 850hPOA temps -5 to -7c from 6pm tonight to 9am tomorrow morning. Thicknesses sub 528 for the same period, and sub 522dam for around 6pm-midnight.

 

The rain/snow indicator is a bit more stingy on EURO4, than NAE, swo we shall have to wait and see.

 

Any lying snow is set to be very limited though with these marginal and rather wet underfoot conditions generally.

 

Yes that Euro 4 raw output does look stingy - but the BBC/meto do tend to alter it slightly (adding some meat to it then) for forecasting purposes and what actually may occur - adding on from my post from above - end of the week still not really fixed as yet - a number of well respected model thread posters still going for the block to hold up the atlantic and keep the cold over the uk - it's finely balanced as always - let's hope today/tonight delivers a few flakes eh! - all eyes west then - let's keep an eye on the Irish regional to see when those showers start getting a little wintry

 

here's an interesting one from yesterday - two walkers got injured from lightning while on Snowdonia in the storms - crikey - wouldn't have wanted to be out in that yesterday - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-north-west-wales-25902599

Edited by andymusic
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We had some snow on Christmas Eve as well, in the mostly hail showers. The remarkable thing is that is more than many have got so far this winter.

 

As for the Scandi Block it hasn't gone anywhere in a few weeks, I cannot see any Atlantic win being clear cut, and a cold zonal theme is equally as likely even if it does.

 

One straw to clutch, the GFS control run is vastly different with a slider low next Friday and a SE flow behind.

Well we had snow on Christmas Day making it a White Christmas!

One of the mildest days of the month max 10c, and to think it could snow tonight!

Edited by TonyH
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Well we had snow on Christmas Day making it a White Christmas!

One of the mildest days of the month max 10c, and to think it could snow tonight!

 

Missed out on that this year.

 

As for snow tonight. fingers crossed.

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EURO4 - that lump of pink (snow) and cold uppers has to pass over Wales over night - can't see how it won't be snowing really - as raw data - should expand slightly - come on winter!Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image  - you know you want to - by the way - this is kind of America's left over cold after the extremes they've had!

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

 

EDIT: as i write - hail/sleet shower turns up out of nowhere!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (only a little one) mmmmmmmmmmm

Edited by andymusic
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EURO4 - that lump of pink (snow) and cold uppers has to pass over Wales over night - can't see how it won't be snowing really - as raw data - should expand slightly - come on winter!Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image  - you know you want to - by the way - this is kind of America's left over cold after the extremes they've had!

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

 

EDIT: as i write - hail/sleet shower turns up out of nowhere!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (only a little one) mmmmmmmmmmm

The question is.... Will it snow in Cardiff lol!
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This may be handy tonight, Tony very kindly showed this link a while back, and it should be good for obtaining latest conditions.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=52.102&lon=-4.143&zoom=13

 

Temps are dropping back, but still a bit too mild for snow at the moment. [in terms of coldest uppers etc 9pm is peak time - a few hrs before and after]

Edited by J10
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good chance it might Jay - Ian F is talking about laying snow (cms) in parts of the South West - if it's good enough for them - can't see why not we won't get a couple either!

 

temps and dewpoints shouldn't be a prob that's for sure - this from the meto just in

 

 

Yellow Warning of Ice for Wales : Denbighshire, Flintshire, Powys, Ceredigion, Conwy, Gwynedd, Carmarthenshire, Neath Port Talbot, Merthyr Tydfil, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Wrexham, Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Monmouthshire, Torfaen, Bridgend & Swansea valid from 1800 Sun 26 Jan to 1000 Mon 27 Jan
 
GFS 12z - further upgrades it seems for wednesday night into Friday this week - easterly uppers further over the UK - slider low under the block - cold air to the east and west - lots of precip about - bingo SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image
Edited by andymusic
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This may be handy tonight, Tony very kindly showed this link a while back, and it should be good for obtaining latest conditions.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=52.102&lon=-4.143&zoom=13

 

Temps are dropping back, but still a bit too mild for snow at the moment. [in terms of coldest uppers etc 9pm is peak time - a few hrs before and after]

great link thanks both...hail here at mo.....becoming the norm this winter

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