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  • Location: Welling/ Barbican by day
  • Location: Welling/ Barbican by day

    845 people reading the Mod thread at the moment.... something must be afoot!

    beat me to it jo was just about to say that lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Home = Haywards Heath. Work = Burgess Hill
  • Weather Preferences: snow, storms or both at same time..
  • Location: Home = Haywards Heath. Work = Burgess Hill
    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

     

    I might need a lift up from the coast if that comes off Rob!

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  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder Storms. All extreme weather.
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)

    I hope it'll be like this. (Behind my house in Norwich, early 2012 I think)

    post-17085-0-81996200-1389201035_thumb.j

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    Posted
  • Location: Barling, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Storms
  • Location: Barling, Essex

    This is what you call a forcast,  Look at all those snow symbols........haha. 1987 was defiently an action packed year for us Southerners  :)

     

     

    Edited by Essexgooner
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  • Location: Milton Keynes MK
  • Weather Preferences: anything extreme or intense !
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK

    Post from Dr. Marshall Shepherd, President of the American Meteorological Society.......

     

    I am certain the term "derecho" is feeling slighted. Until recently, it was the "main star" in the News and Infotainment movie entitled "Weather and Climate Words New to the Media/Public, But Known by Weather-Climate Scientists for Decades".  Note: I am using a metaphors and analogies.

     

    Recently, a new star has emerged in this movie, Polar Vortex. As the President of the American Meteorological Society (AMS),  I couldn't remain silent as media, public, and even some colleagues mischaracterize the term.

     

    1. The term Polar Vortex has been around for many decades. The AMS Glossary of Meteorology (glossary.ametsoc.org), a trusted resource in our field, defines the Polar Vortex as: The planetary-scale cyclonic circulation, centered generally in the polar regions, extending from the middle troposphere to the stratosphere.The westerly airflow is largely a manifestation of the thermal wind above the polar frontal zone of middle and subpolar latitudes. The vortex is strongest in winter when the pole-to-equator temperature gradient is strongest. In the Northern Hemisphere, the vortex has two centers in the mean, one near Baffin Island and the other over northeast Siberia.

     

    NASA also has a really informative website on the Polar Vortex at http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/facts/vortex_NH.html. This site describes the Arctic and Antarctic manifestations of the vortex.

     

    I assure you that neither of these websites was created this week or to justify some hoax or position. My colleague Jeff Basara writes: "My search today found that the term "polar vortex" was first used in a technical report published by multiple authors from MIT in 1940 (Allen et al. - also included Jerome Namais who I think was one of the great synoptic meteorologists). By 1950 it had appeared in over a dozen scientific articles."

     

    2. The Polar Vortex is NOT like a hurricane or tornado. While I appreciate the desire to simplify the discussion for the public, oversimplified examples can be misleading. In the past week, people have asked me if there is an "eye", does it come out of clouds, or can we see it with a satellite (yeah, sorta but not what you probably think). I ask that my colleagues, particularly those interacting with he public, convey proper scientific representation. In the age of social media, blogs, and abrasive article commentary, bad information spreads rapidly. On a related comment, just because you are familiar with someone or trust them for certain information, it doesn't make them an "expert" on every topic.

     

    3. The linkages and discussions about polar vortex, cold, and climate are interesting and disturbing at the same time. There is an array of scientific literature discussing arctic oscillation, jet stream changes, climate change, and extremes (cold/wet/warm/etc). I encourage you to seek them out and educate yourself rather than take a "confirmation bias" position.  Some of the comments about cold weather-climate change immediately signify bias, lack of climate literacy, or a very linear way of thinking that is counter to how our atmosphere actually works. My previous blog, http://egyptsnowfallperspective.blogspot.com, addresses the challenge of cold weather vs climate change. Bob Henson, at UCAR, has also written a very informative discussion (http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/opinion/10886/cold-hard-facts).

     

    In the end, a term is not new just because are not familiar with it.  Most meteorologists and atmospheric scientists have known about the Polar Vortex for some time. We also knew what El Nino was before the 1998 El Nino. Derecho was a term before Washington D.C. experienced one.

     

    It is breathtakingly worrisome to see science terms misused or exploited in public or political discourse. But for the science community, it is also an opportunity to educate or increase science literacy.

     

    What science term is waiting to be the next star in our "aforementioned movie"..........?

     

     

    I assume he hasn't seen this blockbuster then......

     

    post-10773-0-93483300-1389201742_thumb.j

     

    Posted Image

     

     

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  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    Just took a wander round the MAD thread, and teddies, rattles, twin babies, bottles all flying into the air.

     

    Anyway, still "trying" to rain here, not really stopped but then it is not really going either.

     

    Anyone care to help me with this sofa that needs moving?

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  • Location: Wallington/ Croydon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and hot summers
  • Location: Wallington/ Croydon

    This is what you call a forcast,  Look at all those snow symbols........haha. 1987 was defiently an action packed year for us Southerners  :)  

    Was a great forecast I got loads of tie off school
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  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    Anyone remeber John Bacon on About Anglia doing the weather with the stick on symbols and moving map thingy?

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  • Location: Staplecross, East Sussex / Kent borders. 100m ASL.
  • Location: Staplecross, East Sussex / Kent borders. 100m ASL.

    I'm struggling to see where tonight's rainfall is going to arrive from...large lump of stuff heading NNE over Wales, and a couple of weenie ones passing over Normandy (Brest actually, ooh er missus) which could be heading our way. Quietish night ahead, for a change? Would suit me as I'm doing the Heathrow run tomorrow to reunite Max the Westie with his returning owners. He's lost a couple of kilos through longish daily walkies and the fact that the retrievers are on a semi-permanent diet to avoid problems with their joints and keep them near their target weight. Doesn't seem to work for me, regrettably. I blame the low calorie tonic water. 

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  • Location: Wallington/ Croydon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and hot summers
  • Location: Wallington/ Croydon

    Can't beat the magnetic symbols I used to love watching them, feeling old

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    Posted
  • Location: Barling, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Storms
  • Location: Barling, Essex

    Can't beat the magnetic symbols I used to love watching them, feeling oldhttp://youtu.be/JvX-jOlIFds

     

    Especially when they fell off, haha

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  • Location: Uxbridge
  • Location: Uxbridge

    Bless your little man.  I hope he gets lots of snow too.  His birthday coincides with my nieces 18th and we are due to go to her party on that day.  So mixed feelings about snow.  Plus my daughter has major spinal surgery on 27th Jan and we need to travel to Stanmore so really don't snow around month end, as much as I love it. Still not a lot we can do, the weather will do whatever the weather wants to do, and we just have to enjoy/suffer it as best we can. :)

    Ty for your kind words And pray that your daughters surgery goes well its the most awful thing in the world having porrly babies and feeling helpless if you ever want a chat feel free to pm me . Very best wishes and will be thinking of you x
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  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL

    Especially when they fell off, haha

    Which one did at least once per forecast! Back in the day when they were all forecasters on the BBC and not just presenters..
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  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)

    Just posted by Fergie in the MAD thread - let's see if anyone heeds the call for caution!

    "For the newbies - a note a caution that alongside variance in the timing and scope of onset of any colder easterly feed, much as the models currently portray, don;t take the cessation (e.g. as per 12z GFS) too literally either. History shows us that once established, such cold takes some shifting and inevitably, the models exhibit set tendency to sweep the blocking aside and take us back to mobility. Thus, whilst we are still at tentative stages re onset (and any initial consequences, e.g., snow perhaps from Midlands northwards early next week, as the system from west Sun-Mon quickly occludes-out), we are most certainly nowhere close to estimating wht on earth happens thereafter. So, please don't take the model 'closure' of the blocked signal for granted.... we've been round this circuit before in recent winters! "

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  • Location: Barling, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Storms
  • Location: Barling, Essex

    Which one did at least once per forecast! Back in the day when they were all forecasters on the BBC and not just presenters..

    Very true  :)

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  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Sorry to be a party pooper but we are all getting way way to excited... I would hate for this all to go wrong :(

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  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL

    Sorry to be a party pooper but we are all getting way way to excited... I would hate for this all to go wrong :(

    I think after the dross we have all had to endure the last few weeks it's nice to be able to look forward to something colder. It might not come off but at least we've got something other than rain and floods to talk about :)
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  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl

    Can't beat the magnetic symbols I used to love watching them, feeling oldhttp://youtu.be/JvX-jOlIFds

    I got a whole set of those symbols as fridge magnets for xmas..... Can do a three day forcast on the fridge now.....and a magnet of michael fish that came with them.... :)
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