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The 0z runs this morning still show some disagreement. The ECM sticks to it's predicted path for this storm and sends it to the NW of Scotland and keeps it in the exact same location as the 12z run from yesterday. The GFS and UKMO look very similar and send the low more South affecting Ireland the worst. But the GFS 06z run that's just come out has changed over to the ECM's idea of things. So still some disagreements at the moment both the UKMO and ECM seem confident in them selves and the GFS keeps changing around. The GFS infact has handled this low very poorly by being inconsistent with it from the start.

Edited by weathermaster
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Amber warning out for Somerset

 

Issued at: 1110 on Thu 23 Jan 2014

Valid from: 0030 on Fri 24 Jan 2014

Valid to: 2345 on Fri 24 Jan 2014

 

Bands of rain are expected to move eastwards across the area during Friday bringing rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 mm. With water levels already exceptionally high on the Somerset Levels, the public should be prepared for further flooding.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Active frontal troughs will move eastwards across the UK during Friday, mild, moisture laden air bringing further rain. Even modest additional totals are expected to worsen the ongoing flooding.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1390521600&regionName=sw

 

Sunday's warning has been downgraded significantly this morning for the areas covered main concern now is southwestern areas along with Northern Ireland

 

Issued at: 1126 on Thu 23 Jan 2014

Valid from: 0600 on Sun 26 Jan 2014

Valid to: 2345 on Sun 26 Jan 2014

 

Another spell of wet and windy weather will cross the UK from the west during Sunday. Heavy rain and strong winds are likely to affect many parts for a time with further flooding possible in prone areas such as Northern Ireland, South Wales and parts of southern England. The public should be aware of the potential for disruption. This updates the warning originally issued on Wednesday.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Another Atlantic frontal system is forecast to cross the UK during Sunday. Rainfall accumulations of over 20 mm are expected in many western parts, with the greatest risk of flooding in southwestern areas along with Northern Ireland. Strong winds are also expected. Gales are likely, especially along exposed coasts, with gusts of 50 to 60 mph.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1390694400&regionName=uk

 

Sundays warning from yesterday

 

Posted Image

 

And today's updated warning

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Surprised about how little talk there is about this storm with a high risk of storm force winds with widespread heavy rain coming this late weekend and in the mod thread hardly any mention of it at all just the usual chasing cold stuff that usually never happens. Anyway rant over the models have better agreement on the track. The UKMO sticks to what it's been saying for the past day now and the GFS is slowly siding to it. The ECM has made a shift South on its 12z run today but not as far South compared to the UKMO.

 

ECM

 

6am Sunday the low makes it's way in bring 45mph winds across the west with gusts of 60mph,

 

post-6686-0-15324500-1390506367_thumb.pn

 

12pm Sunday the winds increase across the West with Western Scotland getting the brunt of the storm around 50mph mean speeds with gusts over 70mph,

 

post-6686-0-91263800-1390506454_thumb.pn

 

After 12pm the winds will start to ease over Western Scotland as the low loses it's power but strong winds start to move in over Ireland during Sunday evening, mean speeds around 45mph for Western Ireland with gusts of 65mph likely,

 

post-6686-0-06148200-1390506606_thumb.pn

 

GFS

 

60mph gusts over the West on Sunday 9am,

 

post-6686-0-86265500-1390506791_thumb.pn

 

12pm to 6pm Sunday Western Ireland see's gusts over 75mph with 80mph being a possibility as well,

 

post-6686-0-31093900-1390506900_thumb.pn

 

Heavy rain will also move across the entire UK through Sunday there have been already warnings issued for this,

 

post-6686-0-73822500-1390507030_thumb.pn

 

Tomorrow the high res models will be able to pick this storm up as we edge closer to it from there we will get a better idea of the wind strength and worst places due to get hit and also the rainfall as well.

Edited by weathermaster
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Can this be more forum ever be more active? Because of next cold? Anyway rant over.

 

It looks like its going to be a storm which will bring 'Strong gust' to Scotland,Ireland,West UK,And maybe a bit or north england.

 

There is a possibly of 'storm force winds' For the area of scotland and northern ireland.

 

The storm is still 3 days away.

 

So unless the storm gets stronger or moves south i think my opinion should be right?

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So am I ! It must be boring to be obsessed only with one weather type! Especially if you are living in the UK!

Surprised about how little talk there is about this storm with a high risk of storm force winds with widespread heavy rain coming this late weekend and in the mod thread hardly any mention of it at all just the usual chasing cold stuff that usually never happens.

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Still a few days before we'll know the true track and intensity, this one has proved troublesome to nail within the model suite which I guess is down to the block to our east causing variations run to run. 

 

A period of gales or severe gales very likely as the cold front makes inroads from the west, then the core of the depression could bring some extremely strong winds over parts of the UK, which ATM looks like the far NW of Scotland and parts of N Ireland to take the brunt. 

 

18z rolling out and the depression is positioned slightly further east and a few mb deeper up to 48 hours.

 

Another run and another change in the track, a bit further north on the 18z op run.

 

post-9615-0-19830000-1390513838_thumb.pn 18z post-9615-0-17848900-1390513897_thumb.pn 12z

 

 

 

 

Edited by Liam J
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Further South this morning on many models, but still that rain is in the wrong places for many already affected:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Significant seems to be the word:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

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Still some disagreements the ECM continues to have the low more North than the UKMO with the GFS still being in the middle of the two. One of them is going to have to change soon.

 

They all still show storm force winds hitting the Western parts of the UK and the rainfall still looks bad.

 

The GFS ensemble members mostly went for a slightly weaker low so maybe the GFS is overdoing it. As for the ECM ensembles just more than half positioned the low further South similar to the UKMO.

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Models are slowly getting to grips with this storm. The GFS seems confident now with hardly any change in the positioning of the low for the past few runs. The ECM and UKMO are still changing about slightly.

 

So going with the GFS here's the gust charts,

 

6am Sunday 60 to 70mph gusts along the West of the UK and Ireland,

 

post-6686-0-76665100-1390604790_thumb.pn

 

9am Sunday strong winds move into Scotland and Ireland giving gusts over 60mph. Meanwhile the Western coasts of Ireland and Scotland are at risk of gusts around 70 to 80mph,

 

post-6686-0-40378100-1390604890_thumb.pn

 

12pm to 3pm Sunday the winds start to ease across the mainland but Western coasts are still at risk of 60 to 75mph gusts,

 

post-6686-0-45293000-1390604975_thumb.pn

 

After 6pm on Sunday the wind will ease very slowly through to Monday morning so during this time gusts of 50 to 65mph are still possible. Also there will be plenty of rain moving across from the West during the day giving some high totals with a risk of flooding,

 

post-6686-0-19555500-1390605114_thumb.pn

 

Met Office have a warning out for the wind with Northern Ireland, Western and Northern Scotland in the warning zones,

 

 

Winds will increase through Sunday across the north of Northern Ireland, the west of Scotland and the Northern Isles. Gale or severe gale force winds are possible from Sunday afternoon through into Monday morning, perhaps particularly for the western and northern Isles, with the potential for gusts in excess of 70 or even 80 mph at times.

 

The warning for heavy rain and flooding goes out for Northern Ireland, South Western, Southern and Eastern Scotland,

 

Another spell of wet and very windy weather will cross the UK from the west during Sunday. The heaviest rain is likely to clear for a time later on Sunday but will probably return to affect some areas overnight and into the first part of Monday. Heavy snow will fall on higher ground, primarily above 300 metres.The public should be aware of the potential for disruption due to localised flooding.
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Models are slowly getting to grips with this storm. The GFS seems confident now with hardly any change in the positioning of the low for the past few runs. The ECM and UKMO are still changing about slightly.

 

GFS has been quite fixed for the last two days, plenty of wind and big gusts but my main concern is still that rain:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

With parts of Somerset now declared a 'Major Incident', this is really not good news.

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Mace Head with a gust of 87mph!! http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

 

Theres a kink/small wave in the isobars currently moving into Western Ireland which then run through the Irish Sea across N England later, this will really enhance the gusts, not quite as bad as Mace Head is experiencing ATM, looking at 50-60mph gusts over Irish Sea coasts. 

 

post-9615-0-11075000-1390643465_thumb.gipost-9615-0-67761300-1390643543_thumb.gi

 

 

 

Round one Crossing the UK during Sunday morning.

post-9615-0-18690000-1390644208_thumb.gipost-9615-0-81025200-1390644261_thumb.gi

 

Then looking very stormy for N & W Britain Sunday night into Monday, perhaps more widespread severe gales than previously thought from Wales Northwards?

 

post-9615-0-55907500-1390644059_thumb.gi

Edited by Liam J
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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

 

well looking at the  models this  morning with the situation with the flooding  in the UK  i can only see the  problem getting  much worse as their  no let up  for at least the next 2 weeks

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Friday night into Saturday looks like yet another major storm will be battering the UK with gusts to around 80mph+ potentially in the offing. Some very tight cored depressions showing up on the 6z OP & control run along with many of the ensemble members, also snow & blizzard conditions over northern hills, especially the Highlands. Getting slightly anxious for my journey to Aviemore on Saturday morning!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=90

 

post-9615-0-92793000-1390907466_thumb.pn 

 

ECM

 

post-9615-0-07840900-1390907575_thumb.gi

 

80-90mph gusts into Western Ireland.

 

post-9615-0-88696400-1390907822_thumb.pn

Edited by Liam J
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Early warnings out from the Met Office for Friday - YELLOW SNOWhttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1391126400

 

 

Issued at: 
1126 on Tue 28 Jan 2014

Valid from: 
0800 on Fri 31 Jan 2014

Valid to: 
2100 on Fri 31 Jan 2014

 

A band of heavy rain, reaching the west coast of Scotland early on Friday morning, will spread eastwards across the rest of Scotland during the day, with the rain turning increasingly to snow as it moves eastwards. Snow will fall to low levels for a time but may tend to revert to rain there, a concern in its own right. At higher levels, the snow combined with gales is expected to give some very poor traveling conditions.

The public should be aware of the likelihood of a spell of disruptive wintry weather, with impacts to travel and perhaps also to power supplies.

 

As another deep area of low pressure moves in from the Atlantic on Friday, it will bring heavy rain and gale force winds to much of the UK. Cold air, imported from the continent on easterly winds, will be slow to give ground across northern Britain, and so the heavy rain will turn to snow as it moves eastwards, especially on high ground where further large accumulations are likely. At lower levels in central and eastern Scotland, heavy rainfall may well turn out to be the bigger concern.

This warning could be upgraded to amber nearer the time with higher confidence given the impact matrix is one step down from amber already.

 

post-9615-0-48038400-1390911412_thumb.pn

 

 

 

 

Edited by Liam J
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