South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 03/01/14

[ZONE 51]

Thanks John, had just looked at the Saturday FAX, it does show this the low heading up the west side brushing the country, starting to see a pattern, the bigger lows changing tracks perhaps? (not rolling across the BI) early signs to of a pattern change.

Edited January 7, 2014 by ElectricSnowStorm

[john pike]

hi electric

 

i think so

 

but you know the score with anything after 120

 

fingers and toes crossed

 

first thing for us is lose this horrid rain

 

then chase the cold

[ZONE 51]

hi electric

 

my call there would be for that low to go north towards scotland

 

long way off though and these charts at 120 are really changing when they

 

get to 96 the next evening

 

 

gfs ensembles

 

 

a surprise on there

 

the control run was not an outlier

 

i am surprised at that

 

same again tomorrow

The ensembles here still indicating ppn peaks that are quite high, looks like turning cold and wet at times = sleet or snow?

Edited January 7, 2014 by ElectricSnowStorm

[john pike]

hi electric

 

a bulk of the warmer runs are rain

 

the colder ones hard to tell

 

if you look at these

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=320&y=155&run=18&runpara=0&type=1&ext=1

 

the pressure charts from gfs

 

now you see where the spread on the 12th is from

 

i think the models are going to be interesting over the next few days now

[ZONE 51]

Violent squally rain here currently! (Stanwell AND HEADING NE)  very gusty. Had these on/off during evening.

 

Seen the MO warnings very much a concern, and I expect more serious floods (hope not) The river Thames through Molesey and Walton (Surrey) has flood warnings, not seen it at this status there at those locations so far, has it been?

 

1968 those towns got water up to bedroom windows, have read in a book with amazing photos, and did you know then it was a slow moving trough with violent thunderstorms lasted over a week with many inches of rain during summer Sept68

Edited January 7, 2014 by ElectricSnowStorm

[john pike]

another watch although difficult to call at present is wednesday night

 

its a close call as to how much rain we get there

 

i hope that low shifts further north

 

the only other issue are 3 fronts which could give more heavy rain

 

the low would be worse though

 

 

will update this tomorrow night

 

 

anyway off to bed now

 

goodnight all but keep your eye on the flood warnings

 

the end to this looks in sight

 

the sooner the better for all

[ZONE 51]

Plumbers (now Debenhams) of Guildford (68 floods)

 

Seen the recent flooding there, great concern of what is possible.

[PiggiePalace]

Flash-flood Stream still on flood warning from yesterday...but now whole Medway headwaters catchment are also on updated warning as of tonight.

We were very lucky yesterday as the worst skirted us by (a guinea pig whisker) 12 miles and dumped both north and south......It would appear there really is a god a local shield here!!!

However, I can't see a continuing  flood threat tomorrow myself from the forecast and models you lovely people have provided given my local area dyamics .

There is not enough rain forecast..although a potential may exist......so Am I missing something?... as to date the EA/MetOffice warnings for our area have been absolutely spot on and in agreement with what has been posted here.

xxx

 

Edit: the NetWeather Forumites timings to the nearest hour for inclement weather over these last 14 days in my area  have quite frankly been spot on/a godsend and really impressive

Thank you
xxxxx

Edited January 7, 2014 by PiggiePalace

[Guest]

http://maps.environment-agency.gov.uk/wiyby/mapFromCMSCodes?topic=fwa〈=_e&codes=061FWF23XMolsey&layerGroup=1#x=518445&y=169285&lg=1,&scale=11

 

wow according to this kingston is going under lol!! a little extreme i feel. will be in town tomorrow so will try to get a photo of the river

[Jason T]

Winter incoming. This could potentially be another 5 - 6 week extreme event.

 

https://twitter.com/WeermanAshoka/status/420343440719630336/photo/1

[West Sussex Kate]

230am just been woken up by the rain! Wow it's sounding bad out there.

[Jason T]

Look at the temp range down under,Boy that's a little warm.

 

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/highly-significant-heatwave-smashes-australian-records-20140106-30dx5.html

 

https://twitter.com/AtmosNews/status/420349972827996160/photo/1

[Jason T]

For those that don't understand what the polar vortex is ,I have found a brief but interesting article for you to read with image. Enjoy

 

http://ow.ly/i/4dmhP/original

 

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/arctic/atmosphere/polar_vortex_2014.html

 

 

This is temp range map for the states under the polar vortex influence. We thought -15 was exceptional -44 Minnesota is off the scale. Brrrrrrrrrrrr that's real cold.

 

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23coldoutbreak&src=hash

 

Here is a wind chill chart with how quick frost bite sets in at temp and wind speed variations. Wind speed is on the left side vertical. Static temps top row horizontal. Frost bite times colour coded.

 

http://ow.ly/i/4cWTw/original

Edited January 7, 2014 by Jason T

[Charltonkerry]

Morning all, certainly appears still to be windy out, but surprisingly its dry out, so hopefully not to rain last night, the river a Darenth going through Dartford town centre yesterday morning was the highest I seen it since the flood defences where installed, from a quick glance as I was driving it would appear that it was half way up the seats, but it's designed to flood like that so sounds worse, don't know how much more it can take before its becomes a problem. Off to work in Harlow today, so again got to hope the wind is kind to me.

Jason that wind chill chart was fascinating, haven't seen that before, in my younger more stupid days, I went inside a blast freezer at -45c with a wind chill approaching -80c, they said you could survive for 5 minutes, I didn't last 30 seconds, it was horrendous, but something I was pleased to have done, oh, I was properly suited and booted, with full cold weather gear. It's not unusual for me to go into freezers dressed in a shirt and tie, its quiet interesting that your brain can't accept a sudden temperature drop and for a few minutes you can't feel the cold. We also know when a store is at minus 20c as the hairs in your nose freeze up, this is an acceptable way of telling the temperature, well for me anyway.

Congratulation to JP on reaching 8,000 post, unlike mine all weather related.

Edited January 7, 2014 by Charltonkerry

[Jason T]

Blimey immense shower here, really strong wind gust's.

 

 

Nature at its best, Stunning.  Chicago Jan 2014..Cheers Mark

 

http://t.co/cNmSmBEjSS

Edited January 7, 2014 by Jason T

[rodthrutheblock]

Never ever heard rain like that before! For a moment last night it was like a river falling from the sky.

[chilly milly]

Went to bed with it hammering down and blowing a gale.  Woke up with it hammering down and blowing a gale.  Madness!

 

Hope you have a good day whatever you are doing.  Stay safe!

[Coast]

Morning regionaires!

 

Slept like a log last night so I'm really not sure if a tornado came through, the heavens opened or it was relativity benign in Eastbourne. Still blowing a hoolie here in Sussex this morning though and it looks like another band of heavy rain descends upon Southern coastal later today into tomorrow:

 

 

Same again Wednesday into Thursday:

 

 

My garden is a no-go zone reminiscent of the Somme and being on thick grey clay, it's never going to soak away. I might open it as the new Eastbourne lido and see if I can charge an entrance fee....

Edited January 7, 2014 by Coast

[BB1979]

Torrential rain as the train pulled into London Bridge station. 2 mins later and dry as a bone at Waterloo East with partial clear skys. Is that about as localised as weather gets?!?

[Fatboypirate]

Very little Rain just here on the beach, nothing I can measure now for 24 hours! Wind is still so strong, gusting to 30mph again. so strong the dogs are now hiding behing the bush when nature calls so they dont get blown over!! Pressure on the up since 22.00!

[Coast]

Met Office rain forecast for tonight and here it comes again:

 

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

rain, rain and more blooming rain. Now have an orange sky before probably more rain

[Amanzi]

I have decided to purchase a wetsuit and snorkel... that is all

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Wow, this was kind of unpredicted, aquaplaning on the A1 in some torrential showers. Look at the beefy showers with thunder about to hit our region too. When are we going to see an end to all of this rain? Its getting ridiculous now.

[terryall]

Is it true that as from Thursday things improve weather wise?