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Dorsetbred

2014 Chasing outlook

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Next 2 weeks shaping up to be very active by the looks of things, what a waste as nobody from the UK Over there to chase it - Lolz

What is the schedule for this year, Paul? I may be in the States for work mid-May and if so will likely get a few days off to chase - would be great to meet up.

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What is the schedu)le for this year, Paul? I may be in the States for work mid-May and if so will likely get a few days off to chase - would be great to meet up.

Hi Tour 1 (10 days ends) on 21 May change over day is 1st June and tour 3 ends 12 June .The team then relocate to Denver for tour 4.

 

I hope this helps some..

 

Tom

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Things are really going to crank up a gear over the weekend with a 2 day Classic Severe Outbreak expected, ECM Has been very consistent in it's model runs over the last 3 days whereas GFS Has been flip flopping around toying with the idea of a crashing front, this now looks to have been put to bed on last nights 00z run with it firmly coming on board with the ECM.

 

SPC Now also picking up on this with a Days 5&6 Introduced and some pretty strong wording this far out with Strong Tornadoes expected across the South Plains, this could be the most notable outbreak since El Reno last year on the 31st May 2013.

 

Classic 90kt Jet Streak with 500mb SW Winds and 850's from the South or South East, Sharp Dryline setting up over West Texas and Western Oklahoma and Western Kansas on Saturday with low to mid 60's dewpoints, a Triple Point looks to set-up as it stands over Central Kansas as well, could be the classic string of pearls Supercells lined up when the cap breaks with numerous supercells to choose from.

 

Sunday looks like the dryline advances eastwards a bit with Central Oklahoma down to the DFW Area the focal point for Initiation and points east of there under the gun.

 

Should be packed with chasers as it's a Saturday and Sunday outbreak and I'd expect at least a Moderate risk for 1 or both days as it stands.

 

Tomorrow (23rd) should also be a Moderate risk but this for Very Large Hail only and the tornado risk looks minimal due to very high LCL's and storms should evolve into an eastwards moving line probably getting to the I35 Corridoor by sunset.

 

After this northerly winds shut down the plains for at least a week and a ridge builds in behind from the 28th April.

 

Regards

 

Paul S

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SPC Update

 

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 VALID 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE... 22/00Z ECMWF IS EXHIBITING REASONABLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE GFS NOW TRENDING TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THIS FORECAST IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF. EARLIER CONCERNS REGARDING A POLAR FRONT UNDERCUTTING STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SRN PLAINS ARE LESSENING.  WHILE UPPER BLOCK OVER CNTRL CANADA WILL ULTIMATELY FORCE A DOMINANT SFC ANTICYCLONE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS...IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE MUCH SOUTH OF I-70 OVER KS/MO THIS WEEKEND. STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS AS FAR SOUTH AS WEST TX AT 27/00Z.  THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE TO ADVANCE POLEWARD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHERE PW VALUES SHOULD EASILY APPROACH 1.25 INCHES AS SFC DEW POINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR.  LATEST THINKING IS MODERATE-EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG ERN PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM WCNTRL TX...NWD INTO SCNTRL KS SATURDAY WHERE MUCAPE COULD APPROACH 4000 J/KG.  IF THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT EVOLVES AS LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THEN POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.  CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ALONG DRYLINE FROM SWRN TX...NWD INTO WRN KS SATURDAY THEN REDEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY FROM SERN KS...SWD INTO CNTRL TX AS MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS INTO THE SRN PLAINS.  SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY.  ORGANIZED SEVERE MAY CONTINUE INTO THE DAY7 PERIOD BUT SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION DURING THE DAY5-6 TIME FRAME COULD POTENTIALLY DISRUPT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH.

 

post-24-0-74639400-1398162912_thumb.gif

 

 

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Let's hope that this outbreak adds something to the yearly count, it's not even reached three digits yet (93), and now I believe this year tops the charts for the longest period(from Jan1st) with no F3, since the '50's.

It makes last year look like a boom year.

Edited by Dorsetbred

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Let's hope that this outbreak adds something to the yearly count, it's not even reached three digits yet (93), and now I believe this year tops the charts for the longest period(from Jan1st) with no F3, since the '50's.

It makes last year look like a boom year.

 

The SPC Facebook page posted this yesterday, makes me feel slightly less annoyed by the slow start I endured while I was over there last year...

 

Posted Image

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Still looking like a multi-day outbreak in OK/KS Sat and Sun, although only GFS to work on still.Rich moisture transport circa 70+ dps pushing into the warm sector and a deepening surface low on the KS/CO border driving impressive shear values.

Sat night could be major.

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Saturdays risk dependant on the phasing of the speed max and DL with attendant richer moisture transport.

As things stand the transition from high base to surface based cells may not occur until after dark so not conducive for chasing perhaps but dangerous nethertheless.

Sunday's risk just in the 00Z NAM range and potential exists further east on the OK/AR line.

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Early indications are certainly for too much capping Saturday and not enough capping Sunday!

With 700mb temps of 10C modelled for Saturday evening you would have to say any storm activity would be elevated.

Sundays storms will be surface based for sure.

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Warning for Day three just issued

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0229 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014VALID 271200Z - 281200Z...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE ARKLATEX AREA......THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MO VALLEY TO THE WRNGULF COAST......SUMMARY...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THECENTRAL STATES WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

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For info, a decent summary of storm parameters used by SPC and chasers here:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/help/begin.html

 

Sunday RiskNAM 12Z more aggressive than GFS and I'm thinking a few significant supercells may form in the region Texarkana/Hope AR late evening as the LLJ cranks SRH to 400+This area and south of the I30 isn't too bad terrain wise, so long as storm motion doesn't take you into the trees you might be OK.

Edited by nsrobins

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00Z Sat NAM if anything reinforced my view that Sunday evening could be a significant night for the Arklatex corner.My focus is on the directional shear values with H7 at nearly 60kts from the SW over a SSE surface flow.A sounding for Magnolia, AR has the sort of sigma-shape looped hodograph that makes you take notice. 

I would start the day in Texarkana ready for a move east or northeast.Edit: Strong words from the SPC this morning:

PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. 

Edited by nsrobins

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I would be inclined to chase the northern part of the mod risk area in Missouri.  Looks to be less mid level moisture further north and less trees as well.  

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I know there's the trees but I'd be looking to start around Jonesboro AK today.

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Well what a dilemma. Based on the 12Z RAP soundings for 22Z tonight I might be seriously considering downing my morning coffee and getting on the I30 heading NE.The really impressive directional shear profiles resulting in looped hodographs (18kt SE surface wind and a raging 55-60kt SW flow at 750mb) is now up towards Jonesboro AR and up across the MO border. But will the current convection clear to allow recovery? RAP composite ppn doesn't think so.I'm not saying there isn't enough in and around Hope to Little Rock but it's always about the trees down there.

 

So, where to go? I try to take it seriously and pretend to actually be on the road, so I'm just staying put in Texarkana for half an hour and will leave 4hrs to get 180miles across AR if I have to.

 

Incidentally, it's borderline a HIGH risk event later and SPC may go purple on next update. 

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Latest visible shows a lot of gunk around still. RAP 16Z has got me thinking about heading east not northeast - coupled with visible I think clearing skies and buoyancy will likely be generated around El Dorado, AR even though the better helicity is further NE.

 

Update - latest MD suggests as above but puts greatest risk of long-tracked tornados Central AR.El Dorado by 19Z and then maybe a move North depending on convective initiation as cap erodes from the south. 

Edited by nsrobins

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Evening Neil/All :)

 

Hope, ARK for me, getting ready to follow cells NE - although I would probably not chase this one in the Jungle!

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Evening Neil/All :)

 

Hope, ARK for me, getting ready to follow cells NE - although I would probably not chase this one in the Jungle!

Evening Sam.Yep might be better off not venturing into the trees like some mad people would be inclined to do :winky: I'm about to move from El Dorado AR but am waiting for the latest RAP and visible before deciding.

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Think I'd head towards Pine Bluff now.

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SPC now HIGH risk in previously identified region for initiation next hour.Latest obs suggest my decision to move back towards the I30 appears correct but the terrain is a huge concern for folks in SW AR in the next four hours.

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Some monster cells there Neil - yes it looks like as the cap is now eroding and some serious juicy cape in our target area, cells that pop up will be moving pretty quickly into tornadic mode -from what I can tell

 

boom! ... I'd be checking around for storm drains now ;)

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