South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 1/1/14 18z ------>

[Dorsetbred]

Interesting scenario this morning reviewing the radar with the rain band progressing only so far East before now sliding SSE, is that due to the HIGH pressure block?

Hmmm, now you come to mention a quick radar anim, does show it's on the slide. Wonder if this is the high pressure showing it's hand

Edited January 24, 2014 by Dorsetbred

[knocker]

Very surprising down here this morning. Continuous moderate rain, temp of 10C and westerly 20mph. Not going outside to look at cloud but will assume 8/8 Ns or St.

[DanDorsetUK]

Rain much further west this morning than was forecast to happen

[Bristawl Si]

 

Rain much further west this morning than was forecast to happen

And it doesnt seem to be making much progress at the mo; guess it will get a move on soon.

[Dorsetbred]

 And it doesnt seem to be making much progress at the mo; guess it will get a move on soon.

If you view a radar sequence it shows it on the slide over the channel

[Nights King]

Cold rain this morning and another lovely day I have of working outside in it! 

 

Positive in model thread this morning although still a long time before we can start to get out hopes up here in southwest I think as we have all been at this juncture before only to be disappointed..

[karlos1983]

I don't think the heaviest of the rain was due this morning, big pick up in the afternoon expected. 

 

Certainly looking at the Radar animation, it has all the hall marks of precip hitting block scenario.

 

Things looking interesting Monday morning, but remember, DON'T TELL ANYONE YET

[AWD]

Cold rain this morning and another lovely day I have of working outside in it!

Positive in model thread this morning although still a long time before we can start to get out hopes up here in southwest I think as we have all been at this juncture before only to be disappointed..

Old Fergie was mentioning the risk of M4 snowfall on Monday in the MOD thread so it does seem a little potential for something wintry is therefor a lucky few in our region.

As ever though, only time will tell. Got to get through the weekend first.

Recent tweet from Ian;

"W COUNTRY After Sunday's rain, Monday ushers-in coldest spell of winter thus-far, with snow/ice possible across parts of the region by then"

Edited January 24, 2014 by AWD

[DanDorsetUK]

This in from Ian for those not seen it yet! Copied from Model thread

 

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather 7 mins

W COUNTRY After Sunday's rain, Monday ushers-in coldest spell of winter thus-far, with snow/ice possible across parts of the region by then

[Mark Parsons]

The rain seems to be fizzling out, I thought although it may pep up later I was expecting it to be continuous rain of sorts all day? I agree with some others that this front is hitting the block further west than predicted!

[DanDorsetUK]

The rain seems to be fizzling out, I thought although it may pep up later I was expecting it to be continuous rain of sorts all day? I agree with some others that this front is hitting the block further west than predicted!

Absolutely Was not expecting to get any work done outside today but might take the risk and travel to Dorchester, Its droped south and west, its a big change than was forecast today! I cant see it getting any worse now, its fizzing out

[Frosty_wsm]

I swear some people in the mod thread begrudge us in the south west from getting any snow, yes our region isn't looking like being in the firing line for any battleground scenario next week but do some posters have to keep rubbing it in by saying so over and over!

Still Monday is looking interesting according to ian's tweet and the exact track of any low next week is far from nailed yet.

[karlos1983]

I swear some people in the mod thread begrudge us in the south west from getting any snow, yes our region isn't looking like being in the firing line for any battleground scenario next week but do some posters have to keep rubbing it in by saying so over and over!Still Monday is looking interesting according to ian's tweet and the exact track of any low next week is far from nailed yet.

 

Pretty much everyone in there has forgotten that we could actually be the first to profit, i.e. Monday.

 

I would not be surprised if we end up benefiting more than most, especially if the westward corrections continue as they have over the past couple of days.

 

I'm at least 3 days from getting anywhere near being excited about the cold/snow prospects, as we have been burnt to many times in the past, but it's ;looking good for our first real taste of winter so far heading in to next week.

[somersetsnow]

Looking like,Sledge MAY have to move from the back of the Shed to the Front??………….. Fingers crossed

[gottolovethisweather]

For the benefit of those that may not have seen it, here's my posting from the MOD thread this morning.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79144-model-output-discussion-19th-january-2014-18z-onwards/?p=2905375

 

And Monday's situation although a fluid situation right now, I remain of the opinion that these earlier thoughts still hold true. 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79144-model-output-discussion-19th-january-2014-18z-onwards/?p=2903476

 

So much chopping and changing going on with such short timeframes, it is becoming a forecasting mare for those who are in the unfortunate/fortunate position of informing the public on the latest.

 

Firstly, we need to get the cold in, before jumping to conclusions about snow and especially laying snow, but this IS the best opportunity this winter unfolding before our very eyes.

Edited January 24, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[dancing daisy]

Is somerset going to get loads of snow? Im Due to give birth any day & I don't fancy the stress of trying to get to the hospital  

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^Dancing Daisy's Daughter again btw

[Mark Parsons]

Absolutely Was not expecting to get any work done outside today but might take the risk and travel to Dorchester, Its droped south and west, its a big change than was forecast today! I cant see it getting any worse now, its fizzing out

Likewise I had written today off so I am trying to get some paperwork done, however as I type the rain is getting heavier again just when I was thinking of doing some work outside!! Has anyone noticed the temp is pegged back a bit only 7.9 here?

[festivalking]

Heavy snow now progged for Princetown for a time on Monday morning. Lets hope them wet bulb levels will start to drop so we can all share in the fun.

[Mapantz]

Fail on the models, and the last forecast I saw on TV. Both showed rain from 3am until 9pm here, the BBC graphics didn't represent what is on the radar, it's pretty clear and i've barely had any to wet the ground. :lol:

Currently 7C.

[Nights King]

I swear some people in the mod thread begrudge us in the south west from getting any snow, yes our region isn't looking like being in the firing line for any battleground scenario next week but do some posters have to keep rubbing it in by saying so over and over!

Still Monday is looking interesting according to ian's tweet and the exact track of any low next week is far from nailed yet.

 

We could end up being on the wrong side of marginal all week which would not surprise me although we could end up in luck if it is nudged just a little further west and end up with more than the east

[karlos1983]

just the 4.3mm for me so far. be interesting to see if it intensifies as predicted later on,if it doesn't then it is a complete FAIL. bodes well for the near future if you ask me 

[egret]

Is somerset going to get loads of snow? Im Due to give birth any day & I don't fancy the stress of trying to get to the hospital

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^Dancing Daisy's Daughter again btw

Well that must be 'D3'  then, soon to be' D3+1'?

Hope all goes smoothly for you despite my IMBY wish for 30+ cm of snow and a hard freeze to follow ! (very optimistic wish however so i think night time ice will be the bigger worry)

Edited January 24, 2014 by egret

[Dorsetbred]

just the 4.3mm for me so far. be interesting to see if it intensifies as predicted later on,if it doesn't then it is a complete FAIL. bodes well for the near future if you ask me 

Similar sorta numbers for me.

[DanDorsetUK]

Well the Met office update doesnt look all that great for us for snow down here!

 

UK Outlook for Wednesday 29 Jan 2014 to Friday 7 Feb 2014:

Unsettled through Wednesday with showers or longer spells of rain, these wintry in the north. Also a risk of easterly gales in the northeast, where it will be feeling cold. Elsewhere, temperatures will be near or just below normal, with a risk of overnight fog and icy patches. Turning less unsettled with sunshine and some showers on Thursday, these perhaps wintry, mainly in the northeast. However, westerly winds are expected to return by the weekend bringing further outbreaks of rain, and perhaps some hill snow to the north. There will also be some drier and brighter weather too, especially in the south and southeast of the country, with the continuing risk of overnight frost and local fog patches. Temperatures mostly rather cold, but near normal at times in the south.

Updated: 1210 on Fri 24 Jan 2014

[Argyle1980]

One thing I know about snow in Cornwall is that most of the time we get a good flake or two is when it had not been forecasted .

But as each day goes by that Scandi height shifts ever more west so let's hope this continues and is it me or is the block getting stronger and having an effect on the weather today?....

Well still happy I have myself the day off.

More upgrades I hope!.

Take care people.