South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 1/1/14 18z ------>

[Evening thunder]

Some pics I took down at Sidmouth this morning. Some quite impressive waves which had brought shingle over the promenade, though I did see a similar tide level with larger waves in June once (2012).

 

Also a nice sun rise and some shower clouds and anvils around. 

 

 

 

I saw the CB's from the line of storms that passed north of here, didn't hear any thunder from them though due to being in Sidmouth. Some amazing hail reports especially for the time of year. There was a really intense echo (the highest possible on Netweather radar) 15-20 miles to the NNE this morning, Probably had some impressive hail in it.

 

Got home and then there was some thunder to my south with a rain shower. Also saw a couple very distant flashes last night.

 

Also this was the local river on New Years Day so quite a lot of weather around recently.

Edited January 3, 2014 by Evening thunder

[Mapantz]

I've got some good pics of the floods here, cars being silly too, I'll upload them in a bit.

[island lad]

Worst of the day overhead at the moment. Really windy with black sky. Dreading crossing the Solent at six to visit my sister !

[jtay]

Worst of the day overhead at the moment. Really windy with black sky. Dreading crossing the Solent at six to visit my sister !

 

She's not that bad, surely?

[island lad]

She's not that bad, surely?

Ha ha ! I mean dreading the crossing. Lol

[WillinGlossop]

Sky is bright yellow here, turning black to west and north with a couple of distant rumbles of thunder in Broadway near Ilminster.....travelling back to Glossop in an hour....

Jumped in the shower and came out to big hailstorm.....everything was covered by hail wich was 2cm or more in diameter.... North of that shower train on m5/6 blue skies but lots of rainbows..... Roads were pretty clear so only took 3 hours to get up here....

[Chief Wiggam]

Thunder and lightning here plus very gusty winds

[Bumpkin]

Video of the huge hail this morning.  Hopefully it runs better for others then it does on my laptop.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 3, 2014 by Bumpkin

[Lyn-M]

That plays just fine, Bumpkin.  Thanks for sharing it.

[ARTDEMOLE]

Nice images of trampoline ping pong.. Thanks for sharing...

[ARTDEMOLE]

5'0c. Still gusty..

[Nights King]

cool and a bit blustery but not much shower activity at moment. 3.4c

[Bristawl Si]

It's raining again, oh no, it's raining again!

Here's a poser - why buy a house near a river on a flood plain?

[Nights King]

It's raining again, oh no, it's raining again!

Here's a poser - why buy a house near a river on a flood plain?

 

Well apparently some people just aren't educated enough to check out local geography around them or just don't worry about silly little issues of flooding when making the biggest purchase of their life..

 

I understand there will always be the super rare tragic incidents like Boscastle which you can't foresee but buying a house on a flood plane or by a river is a bit different in my opinion.

[nicknacknoo]

It's raining again, oh no, it's raining again!Here's a poser - why buy a house near a river on a flood plain?

Undoubtedly, what you lose in the winter.... you gain in the summer!

[Kiwi]

It's raining again, oh no, it's raining again!Here's a poser - why buy a house near a river on a flood plain?

Many are relatively new houses.

Local authority planning departments and the large housebuilders are the first to point the finger at: ....they (should) know what they are doing.....it seems that it isn't just the banks who are guilty of mis-selling products!

[Erbyskerby]

Hail and thunder here from an isolated cell just off the coast. 4 seasons in one day!

[BARRY]

Hail and thunder here from an isolated cell just off the coast. 4 seasons in one day!

 

4 seasons in one day, think i have see 8 sunrises and sunsets today :0

[Cakie]

Winds really picking up.

Mr Loo says that they are all along the seafront watching the waves

[Mapantz]

Some pics I took earlier;

http://sdrv.ms/1gxNMX3

Excuse the wobbling, I was hiding down below the bridge wall to stay out of the wind, and it was zoomed in.

[gottolovethisweather]

Accepting for the fact that today produced some biblical downpours, much Thunder and Hail  , much fun was to be had, I want to provide a little something that could take our minds off the current weather proceedings and will look ahead to the next 16 days. As ever, I'm using the GFS 12z for my analysis and bear in mind this was the least favoured NWP output regarding colder prospects from this afternoon's runs, in other words ECM, UKMO, GEM hint at something better.

 

Firstly, one should judge the attached ensembles from the viewpoint at which where scatter begins, this will be where the model may lack direction. As fergieweather has stated within the MOD thread today, there is a lot of uncertainty moving forward with regard to any change that may take place in the immediate future.

 

I will be using three counties as guidance from here on in, these are Berkshire, Somerset and Cornwall, in order to get a good geographical spread of weather type.

 

Let's kick of Air Pressure predictions for the coming days, Berkshire.

 

 

Somerset.

 

 

Cornwall.

 

 

Based on a crude analysis of the above, the 9th January onwards may be showing the first signs of my prediction here of the relaxation of the Atlantic Jetstream, easing down from its current raging zonal state. To repeat the first sentence below, by which I stated the following on the 27th December.

 

• "Not a lot to say about the current state of affairs other than its projected to be a quite a stormy period within the reliable and then some hope of respite from a relaxation of the Jet as we head deeper into the end of the first week of January and beyond."

 

 

Onwards to the GFS 12z opinion of potential precipitation prospects out to the 19th January, whereby rainfall (initially) amounts will be hard to tie down precisely as one would imagine.

 

Berkshire forecast precipitation amounts and just where FI might begin.

 

 

Somerset forecast precipitation amounts and just where FI might begin.

 

 

Cornwall forecast precipitation amounts and just where FI might begin.

 

 

The difficulty in predicting precipitation amounts accurately shows it hand very early on with regard to Somerset and Cornwall with the 5th or 6th January as likely periods for great uncertainty, with it being almost futile looking at the GEFS spread from that date forward. What you can take from the data however is that the further inland you are, i.e. Berkshire in this instance should see decreasing amounts of precipitation during the middle third of January. The further Southwest you are, i.e. in this instance Cornwall will likely see more precipitation, but hopefully NOT the like of which we are enduring now and beyond say, the 9th January as mentioned above.

 

Final question, will the precipitation ever fall as snow in the coming days and weeks, well............. Saturday night/Sunday morning as alluded to by one or two other individuals might see a wet snowflake in favoured locations but I'm clutching at straws here. As for further on, let's have a look at the 850hpa forecast temperatures.

 

Berkshire forecast 850s and just where precipitation and 850s might match towards a favourable condition for SNOW.

 

 

Somerset forecast 850s and just where precipitation and 850s might match towards a favourable condition for SNOW.

 

 

Cornwall forecast 850s and just where precipitation and 850s might match towards a favourable condition for SNOW.

 

 

 

Based on the spreads shown for the above regions I would suggest a snow event (transient at best I suspect) watch as follows.

 

• For Berkshire I would advise a watch period for the 13th and 14th January but not really any time before that.
•  
• For Somerset I would advise a watch period for the 12th through to the 14th January but not before that, to be fair.
•  
• For Cornwall I would advise a watch period for the 12th through to the 14th January likewise. 

 

Given the uncertainty within the various NWP outputs, I think it is fair to say a change in global weather type is ensuing but whether the cards fall favourably for a coldie such as myself is debatable and the watch periods will indeed need watching

 

This is simply my analysis of the current situation with a heavy regional bias based on Friday's 12z GEFS run with some personal judgement from a few other sources. Hopefully I can revisit this post early next week and see how things are panning out.

 

Regards

 

gottolovethisweather

Edited January 3, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Erbyskerby]

Nice work gtltw - is this primarily to higher elevations? Eg for Cornwall - prob. Bodmin Moor.

I shall keep my watchiest watch face on for the watch period.

[gottolovethisweather]

Nice work gtltw - is this primarily to higher elevations? Eg for Cornwall - prob. Bodmin Moor.

I shall keep my watchiest watch face on for the watch period.

 

Yes I would have to suggest so, given how wet the ground is, it would be unlikely to settle anywhere bar elevation at least at first. Furthermore, the zonal train isn't exactly budging either, but things can change quickly in UK weather, so most definitely a watch period.   I hope Padstow fared ok today as I haven't caught up with all things newsworthy so far.

Edited January 3, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Erbyskerby]

Yes I would have to imagine so, given how wet the ground is, it would be unlikely to settle anywhere bar elevation at least at first. Furthermore, the zonal train isn't exactly budging either, but things can change quickly in UK weather, so most definitely a watch period.   I hope Padstow fared ok today as I haven't caught up with all things newsworthy so far.

As far as I know - flood gates at Padstow harbour held up well and I think Wadebridge was ok. Some damage to the beach at Constantine. Erosion of sand and a wall has been partially swept away. Nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year.

A few inches of snow would be nice though...!

[Barbel]

Stuck in a 'Lyme Bay streamer' of intense showers here nr Colyford. Unrelenting.